2005 Closer Preview Part 3 - AL Central

What to say about the AL Central Closers? Somehow we have 8 closers on 4 teams and 0 on the other. Just another day of mismanaged assets in the poorest division in baseball...

Chicago White Sox - Shingo Takatsu (2004: 62.1 IP, 2.31 ERA, 19/20 SV, 50 K) I will be plain about this: the White Sox have the right guy closing if you believe that your best reliever should pitch in the toughest situations and not necessarily the 9th inning. Clear?

If not, here's the deal...there was this group of nerds, er baseball fans, who developed sabermetrics. The theory being that math sucks the fun out of everything, but teaches insight. Or actually, people started looking at all of the stupid assuptions that "baseball men" had made about the game and testing the data to see what held water and what didn't. Some believe that the optimal use of a closer (presumably your best pitcher in the pen) is not necessarilly in the 9th when leading by 1-3 runs, but in the toughest situation (i.e. up by 1 in the 7th, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out). That in mind, the White Sox unwittingly follow this logic.

Marte is the best pitcher in the pen. But because Kenny Williams (don't get me started on him) doesn't think that he has "closer mentality," the 9th Inning belongs to Takatsu. This leaves Marte available (hopefully) to pitch in the high-leverage situations. And thus, the dimness of the Sox management may just allow them to get it right. If, that is, you believe the eggheads...

Takatsu will be solid. I'd guess better than league average. Marte and Hermanson are there should anything go wrong, but I'm betting that the job is Takatsu's all year. My favorite thing about Takatsu? His nickname---Mr. Zero...that's just awesome.

Cleveland Indians - Bob Wickman (2004: 29.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 13/14 SV, 26 K) The Cleveland Indians blew 28 saves last year (tied for tops in the league), 21 by the All-Star Break. Read that again, chew on it, and it makes sense why some people are thinking that the Tribe are the logical choice to make a race of it with the Twins. I mean, they couldn't be that bad at saving games twice in a row could they? Could they?

Let's put it this way, Wickman's health is the key. Bob Wickman, the 36 year old man who eats like I do, must stay healthy and effective. When did that last happen? 2001. Now the good news is that Wickman is feeling fine. The bad news happens whenever that ends. Because David Riske, Bobby Howry, and Rafael Betancourt have had their chances. And those resaults are the reason that Bob Wickman is back. You could do worse than Wickman, but most teams won't.

Two fun trade notes about Wickman: 1) He was traded from the Sox to the Yankees in the trade that made Sax a Sox. 2) He was one of the relief pitchers that the Tribe acquired in their endless give-aways of offensive talent. If I have the order right, it went this, then this, then this, and then this for Wickman. I have an Indians-fan friend who still cries over the third this...

Detroit Tigers - Troy Percival (2004: 49.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 33/38 SV, 33 K) Something will happen here. You mark my words. Somebody will be shipped out of Detroit by June. Detroit has the start of a nice young club. They got a top-tier slugger who has rebounded better than expected from injury. But there are still holes. And a three-headed fire breathing closer monster is a luxury that this team can't afford, can it?

The 2004 bullpen for the Bengals was awful. 28 blown saves (feel like you've heard that before?). Part of the mediocrity was Ugeth Urbina, who went 21/24 in save chances, but had a 4.50 ERA. Enter Troy. And Kyle Farnsworth (the best player EVER out of Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College, I assure you). And now the bullpen is back heavy. But the lineup is weak. So somebody has to go right? Uggie to the Cubs? Maybe...
As for now, Percival will be Percival. He has the stereotypical "closer-mentality." He looks like a closer coming in from the pen. He just got downsized when the LA Angels of Anaheim discovered that they had a younder, cheaper, better option (more to come on him in the future).

Kansas City Royals - Jeremy Affeldt (76.1 IP, 4.95 ERA, 13/17 SV, 49 K) Let me say that I like Affeldt. I think that he's good. Real good. I thought that he would be a dynamite starter. He had blister problems, but cured that (by removing half of one finger nail---not like Moises Alou). Last year when he started, though, something kept happening. Each game he would plow through the order. Then the second time around, the line drives would start. It only took two and a half months of this, and a half-dozen Joe Posnanski columns, before the Royals realized that Affeldt was made to be a closer.

So Affeldt is a good young closer on a bad young team. Well, a bad and young team at least. That makes him fun to watch, but I fear for his stat line on his baseball card. I'd put the over/under at 28 for save opportunities he gets. I'd put it at about the same for blowouts that he has to enter to get work.


Minnesota Twins - Joe Nathan (2004: 72.1 IP, 1.62 ERA, 44/47 SV, 89 K)
Here's the deal. If you're Matt, you HAVE to hate Joe Nathan. Joe Nathan is the reason that some people (including, gulp this author) think that closing isn't nearly the feat that others (including, gulp, Matt) make it out to be. Joe Nathan was a solid pitcher with the Giants. But he wasn't ROBB NENN. He wasn't THE CLOSER. He was a solid middle innings pitcher. He wasn't even a K-Rod-2002 or Rivera-1996, where you can see that he had the stuff and just needed the opportunity. He was just a good pitcher.

And then the Twins got him. They made him THE CLOSER. And then the magic happened. Now to be fair, Nathan's numbers are fantastic. It's not just that he got the three outs; he pitched really, really well. But wouldn't you feel that there was more to this closing thing if teams couldn't just pluck a non-descript pitcher off of someone's roster and turn him into THE CLOSER? I would. Maybe he is THE CLOSER, and I'm under-rating him. Maybe not. Either way, Matt has to hate Joe Nathan.