2005 Closer Preview Part 5 - AL West

In our ongoing look at the 2005 closers, I'll put forward that top-to-bottom no division has the talent of the AL West. The only question, of course, is whether that talent will translate into quality relief performances. Well, that's not the only question. I'm still trying to figure out who's the better Francisco...

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Francisco Rodriguez (2004 Stats: 84 IP, 1.82 ERA, 12/19 SV, 123 K)
Well, now he officially gets the job. It's been no mystery that since his stunning arrival in the 2002 post-season that Francisco (known in some corners as "K-Rod") has been the best reliever on the Angels. His stuff is electric. He appears to have the "make-up." And now he has the job. I'm going to level with you. Matt kind of has a non-sexual crush on the guy. Looking at his numbers, I think that you'll see why. Francisco has the markings of the next Rivera. And if he really is only 23 years old, we could be watching him work for a long time...

One note about his stats, the 12/19 saves/opportunities is misleading. That's the pain of being a set up man and letting someone else finish your work. There is no reason not to think that Francisco will be one of the top 5 closers in the game this year and for years to come.

Oakland Athletics - Octavio Dotel (2004 stats w/ Hou and Oak: 3.69 ERA, 85.1 IP, 36 SV, 122 K)
Dotel lives and dies by his fastball. You've probably heard that before. The question that Billy Beane will be asking this year is whether he'll live more or die more. It's hard to put a finger on exactly what happened last year. In 2001-2003, Dotel never had an ERA above 2.66. His strikout rate fell slightly each year, but not at an alarming rate. Then in 2004, his K rate went back up to a fantasic ratio. But the ERA went way, way up (for him). One number that jumps out is homers (13 last year, after never having more than 9). But let's guess it's not just homers. Maybe, just maybe, Dotel goes into Matt's file of pitchers who don't have the make up to be a closer. This much is certain. Billy Beane thinks (knows?) that closers can be replaced. If Dotel's first half looks like Arthur Rhodes's first half last year, expect to see someone else in Oakland. The same is true if Dotel looks good but the team struggles. In those cases, expect either prospect Huston Street or Jairo Garcia will step in for the A's.

Seattle Mariners - Eddie Guardado (2004 stats: 2.78 ERA, 45.1 IP, 18/25 SV, 45 K)
Here's a little disclaimer about myself. I'm about 6'2". I weigh about 200 pounds. According to the Mariners press guide, "Everyday Eddie" is 6'0" and 205. Now I'm not the slimmest of guys. But I have a hunch that Everyday couldn't button my size 34 jeans. And I don't think it's because of the 2" difference in height either. Talk about a ballplayer and not an athlete...

Here's the deal, if the Mariners are better (have to be don't they?), Eddie will get chances. The question is whether he'll be healthy for them. As of 7/22/04, he was cruising along with a sub-2.00 ERA. Then three horrible appearances later and he was done for the year. They called it shoulder fatigue, but it was a torn rotator cuff. Then he had his knee cleaned. Now he's back this spring, and he tweeked his hammie. Apparently that has healed, and he should be ready to go. But for how long? Let's just say this, the list of fat pitchers who pitch well at age 35 (which he turns this season) is pretty short.

Texas Rangers - Francisco Cordero (2004 Stats: 2.13 ERA, 71.2 IP, 49/54 SV, 79 K)
If the Rangers were the most pleasant surprise of 2004, than Francisco Cordero had to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the most pleasant surprise. He'd shown flashes in 2003 and 2002, but it all really came together into a huge season in 2004. 49 saves was second in the AL, his ERA was outstanding, and he allowed but a single homer. Not bad considering that Texas plays in a hitter's park. There was no discernable reason to think that 2005 should be any different.
Then this spring, there was some tenderness in his shoulder. That was followed by a "tricky right elbow." Remember, that's the one that has the screw in it already. And suddenly, last year's sure thing is showing all the warning signs of a pitcher that is headed for a down year. And if that's the case, that Francisco question won't be that hard to answer after all.