Closing Time

Could Thigpen's Saves Record be in Trouble?

2006-07-08T23:49:00.001-05:00

Bobby Thigpen picked up 57 saves during the 1990 season, a record that has stood for 15 years, and a season that stands out like a sore thumb in Thigpen's career stat line.

Thigpen was absolutely phenomenal as a 26-year old in '90 - 57 saves with a 1.83 ERA and 1.903 WHIP. Granted, he only struck out 70 men in 88 2/3 innings, but that isn't so bad, all things considered, right?

Well, eventually, all those balls in play started to turn into baserunners. In 1991, he picked up 30 saves, but his Ks declined again, to 47 in 69 2/3 innings, and his ERA increased to 3.49 while his WHIP shot up to 1.45. In 1992, he got 22 saves, with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.655 WHIP. In 1993 he got 1 save, his last. He retired after the 1995 season.

We've said it a million times, but the lifespan of the finesse closer is generally quite short.

Still, that record stands. Even though Thigpen's 1990 efforts seem like yesterday (I can still remember finding his Upper Deck 1991 "SaveMaster" card in a pack), 15 years is quite a long time - especially when those 15 years have precisely corresponded with the rise of the specialist closer. How is it that no one has caught Thigpen?

There have been challengers - in 2003, Eric Gagne notched 55 saves, in an absolutely monstrous season (55 saves, 82 1/3 innings, 137 K, 1.20 ERA, and an unfathomable 0.692 WHIP).

One year earlier, in 2002, John Smoltz also notched 55 saves. In 1998, the great Trevor Hoffman closed out 53 games. And the Greatest Closer Of All Time, Mariano Rivera, closed out 53 in 2004 as a 34-year old.

But no one has caught Thigpen.

Yet.

There are certainly challengers this season. With a little more than half the season gone, the Red Sox' phenomenal young closer Jonathon Papelbon has 26 saves, which ties him for the MLB lead with the White Sox' phenomenal young closer, Bobby Jenks, and the Cardinals somewhat older and less effective Jason Isringhausen.

There's no reason to believe that any of these pitchers will catch Thigpen - after all, tallying 57 saves requires a healthy dose of luck and an uncommon abundance of save opportunities.

But there's also a chance - a decent chance - that someone will get that luck, and will get those save opportunities. With so many pitchers on pace to finish with save totals in the low-to-mid 50's, the law of averages would seem to dictate that someone would break away from the pack and make a run at the SaveMaster. Time will tell.

Trevor Hoffman - Possible Saves Leader, but a Hall of Famer?

2005-09-14T20:43:00.001-05:00

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 431st career save tonight, (his 38th of 2005), leaving Hoffman a mere 47 saves behind the all-time career leader, Lee Smith.

Trevor is 37 years old this season. However, he has continued to be an effective closer in his 37-year-old season, and while his peripheral stats have slipped across the board from his stellar 2004, he is still holding opposing hitters to a .234 batting average, while posting a 3.14 ERA and striking out just over a batter an inning.

It seems like a lock that Hoffman will return for at least the 2006 season, in order to make a run at Smith's career saves mark. (He'd probably be approaching the career saves record as we speak, if he hadn't missed most of the 2003 season with an injury.)

Obviously, the "closer" position is relatively new, and as such, relief specialists are dramatically underrepresented in the Hall of Fame - especially when one considers the notoriety that the earliest elite closers, such as Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter, gained in the late 1970s and early 1980s. While Gossage and Sutter will, in all likelihood, gain access to the Hall of Fame in short order, (which will be the subject of an upcoming column), it is unlikely that Hoffman will have to put up with the years of waiting that his predecessors experienced.

There are currently three pitchers who can be considered "closers" in the Hall of Fame - Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, and Dennis Eckersley. Wilhelm was the original relief specialist - a knuckleballer who pitched until he was 49, and who should be the namesake of an award recognizing baseball's top closer. Eckersley, of course, enjoyed considerable success as a starter, notching a 20-win season and 197 total wins, which helped his Hall bid. Moreover, both Eckersley and Fingers put up a massively dominant Cy Young + MVP season, which Hall voters certainly remembered.

Trevor Hoffman will end his career with no Cy Young awards, and no MVP trophies. Moreover, being the career saves leader hasn't helped Lee Smith into the Hall of Fame, and Smith's induction appears less likely by the year. However, we're confident that Hoffman will be inducted within three years of appearing on the ballot, for a number of reasons. First, and most obviously, Hoffman will have tallied his save total in far fewer seasons (probably 11 and change) than Smith (18 seasons). Equally importantly, Trevor Hoffman played the vast majority of his career with one franchise - San Diego - and became the face of that franchise, while Smith, through no fault of his own, played for 8 franchises during his career.

Mark it down - Trevor Hoffman will be elected to the Hall of Fame, along with at least one of his contemporaries, Mariano Rivera. Hall of Fame voters have long resisted the induction of relief specialists, but the tide will start to turn with the next round of balloting, in which Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage - and maybe only Sutter and Gossage - will be elected.

Stretch Drive

2005-09-14T12:07:00.000-05:00

It's been quite a while since we've updated - I've been compiling stats for an end-of-year feature, and Tom's got a new addition to the family to contend with. Besides, who wants to read a running tally of the previous night's blown saves?

We're prepping our first ever "Closer of the Year" feature, in order to recognize that there is more to the closer role than racking up 3-run saves. If we've learned one thing this year, it's that almost any moderately talented pitcher can enjoy some success in the closer role, but that a truly great shutdown closer is a remarkable asset, and can have a positive effect that ripples throughout an entire ballclub. Of course, the converse is also true.

In the meantime, there are a couple recent 9th-inning developments during these meaningless September games which could have a sizable effect on who gets the ball in the ninth inning next spring, and they need to be noted:

MESA OUT IN PITTSBURGH

Well, it finally happened. Jose Mesa has been ousted as the Bucs' closer. After years of trade rumors, improbable effectiveness, and general apathy during the times when Mr. Table has been ineffective ("Why make a change? No one is watching anyway..."), the Buccos finally decided to hand the ball to someone else in the 9th inning.

Now, if only they get some 9th-inning leads. They're working on that.

It looks like Salomon Torres will get the call, at least at first. Torres is probably best known for beaning Sammy Sosa and effectively ending Sosa's run as the best hitter in baseball. (Sosa returned a few weeks later with an "evil Sammy" goatee", then got busted for corking his bat, then mysteriously lost 40 pounds the next season, and then was run out of town.)

If Torres can't get it done, and there's no reason to believe that he will, they'll hand the ball to Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been Mesa's heir apparent for several years, but he's a lefty - relatively rare among closers - and Torres has been marginally more effective this season. Barring an acquisition, and this is Pittsburgh we're talking about, our money is on Gonzalez for 2006.

FARNSWORTH HAS ARRIVED IN ATLANTA

Kyle Farnsworth is the epitome of the "million dollar arm, ten cent head" pitcher. When he's on (2001 BAA-.217, 2003 BAA-.196), he is unhittable. When he's not (2002 BAA-.293, ERA 7.33!) he's throwing BP. The Cubs finally gave up on him after a mediocre-to-lousy 2004. (BAA-.260, ERA 4.74, fans punched with pitching hand = 1).

Leo Mazzone has shown, time and again, that he can mold any journeyman pitcher into a valuable asset. So it's not a big shock to see what he can do with a talent like Farnsworth.

(FANTASY TIP FOR '06 - Farnsworth with ATL, 2005: 6/6 SV, 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 21 K in 19 IP.)

Then again, perhaps Kyle Farnsworth is headed for a Saberhagen-esque "even-year/odd-year" Jekyll-and-Hyde career, and Mazzone will have to look elsewhere for his closer. But I doubt it.

KERRY WOOD WILL RETURN TO THE ROTATION. PROBABLY. FOR NOW.

During his month-long stint in the bullpen, Kerry Wood showed a tantalizing glimpse of the pitcher that he once was, and the closer that he may someday be. While his various injuries have limited his stamina and his effectiveness as a starter, Kerry was able to "turn the dial up to 11" as a 1-inning reliever, showing the 100-MPH heat and knee-buckling breaking stuff that he showed off as a pre-TJ surgery youngster. While facing the middle of the Cardinals' powerful lineup during an August game at Wrigley, Wood actually seemed to be grinning on the mound. For the first time in forever, he was destroying everyone he faced.

With the Cubs out of contention, management finally took the long overdue step of letting Kerry go under the knife- a shoulder "cleanup" surgery considered to be similar to what Matt Morris underwent last offseason. Kerry should be back to full strength by Spring Training, and plans to return to the rotation.

But this is Kerry Wood we're talking about here. Nagging injuries seem go with the territory. If, by some chance, Kerry's injury problems resurface during 2006, or if his stamina is not where it needs to be during Spring Training, you can rest assured that Kerry will immediately be placed in the closer role, and will enjoy immediate success in that role. When healthy, Wood is a good starter. Healthy or not, Wood would be an elite closer. A stopper. There is a moderate-to-good chance that we'll be seeing Kerry in the bullpen in 2006, and it is almost a certainty that he'll be a closer at some point in his career.

2005 First half in Review

2005-07-19T13:52:00.000-05:00

We're still around, but we've been re-focusing the nature of this weblog - more feature stories, less re-capping of Braden Looper's last blown save.

However, some notable stories have taken place over the past couple of weeks, and should be noted:

1. Troy Percival's career may be over.
Percy was a great stopper for a long time, and was ultimately successful in his quest to tally 300 saves. He was also one of the few lucky stoppers to tally the final out of a World Series, in 2002 with Anaheim. However, his fortunes have taken a turn for the worse in the Motor City. After recently suffering a muscle tear in his throwing arm, he noted that the pain had gotten "progressively worse" after the break, and underwent an MRI on Monday. Best-case, he's out 12 months. Worst case, he's hanging up the spikes.

In the meantime, Kyle "Dr. Tightpants" Farnsworth is finally getting the opportunity to step into the closer role that Cubs fans such as myself had hoped he'd fill 3 years ago, and he's experiencing some success. And another Urlacher-style takedown of another pitcher, but who's counting, right?

2. Curt Schilling is serving as Boston's Interim Closer.
As we all know, this didn't start off too well. However, while Curt has yet to tally his first major-league save, he's pitched two consecutive scoreless ninth innings (in losing causes) since his blowup vs. the Yankees. There is some precedent for starters experiencing success in the bullpen, but all indications out of Boston are that Schilling will return to the rotation as soon as he's able.

Which would, of course, leave the BoSox' closer role empty, as Keith Foulke has been alternately mediocre and injured. Rumors are swirling around Phillies' closer Billy Wagner, who would certainly be an improvement for the 9th inning.

3. Trade Rumors
The KC Royals are not a good team. But we're just as surprised as anyone at the success that Mike MacDougal has experienced this season. He's converted his last 11 save opportunities, and has permanently secured the Royals closer role - that is, unless and until he is traded. Rumor has it that the Cubs are interested in either MacDougal or Jeremy Affeldt - and based upon Ryan Dempster's recent success in the closer role, we have to assume that they're interested in those pitchers as 8th inning options.

Danys Baez has been awfully successful of late as the D-Rays closer (well, as successful as the D-Rays' closer can be, anyway), and according to the rumor mill, is as good as gone. It's almost certain that if Baez is traded (the Nats are allegedly interested), he'll serve as a set-up man. Joe Borowski, believe it or not, would take over for Baez as the D-Rays closer. He's been perfect for the Rays so far.

Trade rumors are also surrounding Jose Mesa, but then again, trade rumors always surround Jose Mesa. Frankly, I'll believe it when I see it.

4. Surprises and Disappointments
The first half has brought us the emergence of several new stoppers - some expected (B.J. Ryan, K-Rod, Huston Street), and some unexpected (Derrick Turnbow, Dustin Hermanson, Todd Jones). Chad Cordero's emergence has been particularly exciting (32 saves, 1.09 ERA), while injuries to Armando Benitez, Octavio Dotel and Eric Gagne were particularly crushing.

Mariano Rivera has gotten off to a simply phenomenal start, putting any "over the hill" rumors to rest (24 SV, 44K, 0.91 ERA). Similarly, warhorses like Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, and Eddie Guardado keep on rolling.

We'll have a full review of the first half shortly.

Dodger Disaster - Gagne May Need 2nd TJ Surgery

2005-06-15T09:24:00.000-05:00

According to early reports, Dodgers closer Eric Gagne has sprained his throwing elbow, and may in fact have a partial tear in the ligaments of his throwing elbow, in which case he would need a second Tommy John surgery. Obviously, this would knock him out for the entire 2005 season, and at least half of the 2006 season.

Earlier this week, the Dodgers and Gagne had expressed surprise that Gagne's elbow could be injured, and reiterated their belief that Gagne had completely rehabbed the elbow injury he suffered in spring training.

Obviously, a devastating blow to the LA Dodgers, and for baseball, if Gagne cannot continue to perform at such a high level.

Ugueth U. Urbina Dealt to Philadelphia

2005-06-08T15:47:00.000-05:00

Ugueth Urbina, who has been the acting Tigers closer while Troy Percival rehabbed from injury, was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies today, along with infielder Ramon Martinez, in exchange for infielder Placido Polanco.

Urbina has made no secret of the fact that he prefers closing, and he has been dramatically more effective in 2005 after moving into the closer role. However, in Philly, he will almost certainly return to 8th inning duties behind incumbent closer Billy Wagner.

Urbina has 236 career saves, good for 9th among all active players and 27th all time. (He only needs 3 more to pass Sparky Lyle!)

While Wagner has been the subject of some recent trade (and retirement) rumors, today's acquisition makes it clear that the Phillies currently have their sights set on winning the crowded NL East race, and that they realize that they'll need a more than just Wagner and Ryan Madson in their bullpen in order to do so.

Octavio Dotel Out for 2005, and perhaps 2006.

2005-06-03T12:11:00.000-05:00

A's closer Octavio Dotel (which, coincidentally, is Spanish for "LaTroy Hawkins"), has elected to undergo reconstructive elbow surgery. This goes against the advice of his doctors, who prescribed rest & rehab.

Against the recommendations of four physicians, Dotel is convinced that surgery is necessary, saying that "What I have is not even close to what I had last year. It's not the same pain, not the same feeling. Tendinitis does not keep you from throwing your slider. What I have now does make me not throw my slider."

This is, obviously, a strange situation - almost unprecedented. Just one year ago, Dotel was being "promoted" by the Astros from the 8th inning, where he had been dominant - to the 9th inning, where he struggled before being shipped to Oakland in the Carlos Beltran deal. It seems that Dotel can be safely categorized as a dominant set-up reliever who simply could not close games effectively.

Note the use of the past tense - "could not". Dotel is 31 years old, and and he's electing to undergo a major, possibly unnecessary, elbow surgery that may sideline him until he is 33.

It's quite possible that Dotel's career is over.

Rookie Huston Street will continue to close games for the A's, and is now the "official" closer.

False Alarm? Lyon will not need surgery.

2005-05-31T10:05:00.000-05:00

Diamondbacks' closer Brandon Lyon visited Dr. Lewis Yocum for a second opinion on the "irregularities" noted in his elbow. Dr. Yocum confirmed what Diamondbacks team doctor Michael Lee had previously stated; Lyon's elbow will not require surgery.

Lyon stated that "Dr. Yocum kind of reassured me that right now it's nothing to take too seriously - just take a rest right now and let Mother Nature take over and see how I feel in 10 days." According to the D-Backs official site, Lyon will still be out for some time - he may be able to start playing catch in 10 days before starting a rehab assignment.

Something is Wrong with Brandon Lyon's Elbow

2005-05-26T17:43:00.000-05:00

Diamondbacks' closer Brandon Lyon has been spectacular in the early going, but he may be on the shelf for a long time. The second MRI on Lyon's elbow has revealed an "area of concern", which can't be good for a pitcher coming back from elbow surgery. Specifically, the MRI showed some changes surrounding the ulnar collateral ligament.

While team physician Michael Lee gave a "glass half full" assessment, noting that "most of the ligament looks absolutely perfect and fantastic", it seems that one little problem in a ligament can cause the whole thing to fall apart.

Brian Bruney has been closing games for the D-Backs while Lyon has been out. However, if the worst-case scenario comes to pass, and Lyon misses a substantial amount of time, or (gulp) faces Tommy John surgery, the closer role will most likely be reclaimed by 2004 closer Greg Aquino, who has been limited to one 2005 inning by injuries, and who is currently on a minor league rehab assignment.

Danny Graves Designated for Assignment.

2005-05-23T15:15:00.000-05:00

Reds closer Danny Graves was designated for assignment today, which means that the Reds have 10 days to trade him or release him. And if you think that another MLB team will be trading for Graves and his $6.25 million salary, you haven't been following baseball very closely lately.

It's almost a certainty at this point that Graves has made his final appearance in a Reds uniform. It is a certainty that he will no longer be blowing 9th inning leads and picking up cheap saves in Cincy anymore. (That will probably become Ryan Wagner's new role.)

It's been a tough year for closers. Another one bites the dust.

MacDougal Strikes out Side for Save

2005-05-19T15:47:00.000-05:00

Well, that didn't take long.

Just yesterday, we reported that the Royals' interim manager Bob Schaefer was considering using Mike MacDougal as his closer. Today, with a 7-4 lead, MacDougal got the call, and struck out the side for his second save. No word on whether he's been officially tabbed as closer, or whether he could potentially keep the role after Jeremy Affeldt returns (seriously, Royals pitching is a mess right now...), but we'll keep you posted.

IN OTHER NEWS

Angels' closer K-Rod is dinged up with a mild forearm strain, and Scott Shields has vultured 4 saves already, which would actually lead the Royals. By 2. K-Rod may return this weekend.

Brandon Lyon is on the DL, and Brian Bruney is closing in Arizona. Lyon's injury isn't related to his TJ surgery, so he'll probably return as soon as he's eligible, or shortly thereafter.

Joe Borowski pitched two scoreless at AAA Iowa, and will presumably join the Cubs immediately. Ryan Dempster will probably continue to close games in the short term, but odds are that Borowski will be pitching in the ninth before too long.

And most importantly, Eric Gagne is back, and looks like he's fully recovered.

Back Around the Horn

2005-05-17T20:41:00.000-05:00

Tyler Walker Closing in San Francisco

It appears that the Giants have settled on Tyler Walker as their replacement for Armando Benitez in the ninth. SFgate.com notes that while Walker had control problems earlier in the year, walking 11 men in his first 14 2/3 innings, he's settled down enough to pick up saves in his last two appearances.

Royals Make it Official - "No One" is their Closer

The Royals finally made it official this week - they have no closer. Ambiorix Burgos has been flat-out rocked in his last three appearances, Jeremy Affeldt is still nursing a strained groin (eww, I need an editor), and fireballers Andrew Sisco and Mike MacDougal haven't stepped up, either. Interim Royals manager Bob Schaefer has used the soft-throwing Mike Wood to close out the Royals two most recent saves, after initially tabbing Burgos and Sisco to start the ninth, and watching them struggle.

Schaefer hinted that MacDougal might get another shot to close, noting that "MacDougal is getting closer to getting his job back. We just need consistency out of him. Last time he came in, got two strikeouts and threw some real quality pitches with command."

Fuentes Closing in Colorado - Tsao May Miss Season

Chin-Hui Tsao is back on the DL with trouble in the same shoulder that sidelined him during April. In fact, there is speculation that he's torn his labrum, which would end his season. For the moment, Brian Fuentes will be the Rockies' closer. He's been tough this season - 2.65 ERA, .170 batting-average against - but his K/9 rate is down in the early going. He has 12 strikeouts in 17 innings, while he's struck out more than a batter per inning during his career.

Still, as we noted during the preseason, Fuentes is the best reliever that the Rocks have. Given an opportunity to close, he could be productive.

Tsao back to the DL, Ambiorix struggles, Wood to close?

2005-05-16T08:47:00.000-05:00

While I hate to see this site exclusively focused on the closing situation for the likes of the Rockies and Royals and Cubs, that's where the action has been lately.

In Colorado, Chin-Hui Tsao is back on the DL with an inflamed right shoulder - the same problem that sidelined him earlier in the season. Brian Fuentes will close games until Tsao returns.

In KC, Ambiorix Burgos has really struggled in his last two outings, and has watched his ERA shoot up from 1.35 to 8.31. (Now that's struggling!) Burgos has shown flashes of brilliance, but has been rocked twice after going 2.2 scoreless for a win on May 8 vs. the Orioles.

On both sides of Chicago, no one knows who is the closer. For the Sox, it's whoever Guillen calls on for a particular day, and more often than not, Shingo & Hermanson have gotten the job done. Hermanson has picked up saves in 6 of his last 7 appearances, and Hermanson and Takatsu both have notched 8 saves. Damaso Marte has also featured into the mix, especially when lefties are due up in the 9th.

On the northside, everyone's waiting for Joe Borowski to return. He tossed another scoreless inning at AAA on Saturday... it's been a while since a Cub reliever has done that. Meanwhile, the Cubs have downplayed persistent rumors that Kerry Wood may be moved to the pen for the balance of the season. Sorta. Pitching coach Larry Rothschild's non-denial denial went something like this: "If you're going to do that, you're going to do it the rest of the year. That would be a major decision. First we have to get him healthy to talk about that."

400!

2005-05-10T12:35:00.000-05:00

(Well, 402 and counting, actually.)

Closing Time congratulates Trevor Hoffman for becoming only the 3rd pitcher in major league history to tally 400 saves.

Hoffman is currently 22 saves behind John Franco for 2nd on the career saves list, and 76 saves behind all-time leader Lee Smith. With a little luck and continued good health, Hoffman could pass Smith during the 2006 season.

Hoffman was characteristically modest after the game, talking about his family, and about the unpopular trade that brought him to San Diego in the first place, while sending Gary Sheffield to the Marlins. "Sheffield was a proven star, and fans in San Diego were saying, 'Who in the hell is this kid?' Let's just say it wasn't a popular trade at the time." After finishing up 400 Padres wins and counting over the past 12 years, Hoffman has certainly won the San Diego fans over.

Phillies closer Billy Wagner, who has 252 saves, praised Hoffman after his 400th save:

"I couldn't be more impressed with Hoffman. He's one
of the greatest that will ever be, and one of the guys I look up to. He's the
master of the craft. He's learned so much over his time in the big leagues. His changeup scares hitters, and that's unheard of."

Wagner also addressed the issue of closers getting into baseball's Hall of Fame: "If you can't get in with 400 saves, you're not getting in. You should get in with 300. But closers are looked at as guys who don't do anything." Wagner should take heart in knowing that HoF voting trends indicate that next year's Hall class should feature Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter - two dominating 300-save closers who advanced the concept of the relief specialist more than almost any other pitchers.

However, Hoffman will leave his Hall of Fame politicking to others. "My family background was always, 'Don't toot your own horn; let someone else praise what you do. I don't think you can foresee the things that happen to you. You just keep working, do the best you can each day and see where it takes you."

In Hoffman's case, his best effort has probably taken him to Cooperstown.

Percival Out 4-6 Weeks

2005-05-09T22:15:00.000-05:00

And then again, maybe there's a reason that you keep 3 closers on the roster. Troy Percival is out and it's going to be a while...

The Tigers placed closer Troy Percival on the disabled list Monday with a partial tear of his right flexor pronator muscle mass in his forearm. Manager Alan Trammell said Percival is expected to be out four to six weeks, but surgery is not necessary. Percival -- who was 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 12 appearances and had three saves in five opportunities -- and Magglio Ordonez (also injured)were the Tigers' big free agent signings during the off season.

"We've had our share [of injuries] for the first month plus, but nobody is going to be crying for us," Trammel said. "I don't expect any get well cards from Texas." Percival picked up a save Saturday to preserve a 2-1 victory over the Angels. His elbow, however, was bothering him when he warmed up. He remained in California to be examined by Dr. Lewis Yocum, the Angels team physician, and the tear was detected on Monday.

"He has the utmost confidence in Dr. Yocum," Trammell said. "He's worked with him for years. He thought he'd be able to pitch in a couple of days. I had that as part of my thought. When you get the call that someone is going to be out four to six weeks, you start making the other calls." Trammell said that with a Tigers' restructured bullpen because of Percival's absence, Ugeth Urbina would close while Franklyn German, Kyle Farnsworth and Jamie Walker will serve as the set-up men.

"Ugie is the now the closer," Trammell said. "I think we're in pretty good hands there. We're fortunate we have Ugie. We had Urbina if something would happen that he would be the logical choice to close. It's his job."

Urbina is 10th among all active pitchers with 228 saves, including 21 last year with the Tigers.

So, Urbina is closing. But considering the trouble that he's had this year, you might want to keep an eye out for Farnsworth in the near future.

Dempster Closing in Chicago - Marte Again?

2005-05-09T08:28:00.000-05:00

Everyone is reporting that, despite the Cubs' injuries in their rotation, Ryan Dempster will finally make the long-rumored move the the bullpen, where he'll serve as the Cubs' closer until Joe Borowski returns, which should be about one more week.

Cubs' GM Jim Hendry has long advocated using Dempster in the closer role, and this move, coupled with the recent announcement that Jason DuBois will finally get a much-deserved shot in LF, indicates that Hendry is taking some control of day-to-day decisions away from manager Dusty Baker, who had previously ignored the GM's suggestions that DuBois and Dempster move into those roles. Dusty, it seems, may be on the hot seat.

On the other side of town, the White Sox closer carousel continues on, unabated. Damaso Marte picked up his second save last night, picking up the final two outs after Dustin Hermanson pitched a scoreless 8th and recorded the first out of the 9th inning. Marte walked a man and allowed a hit, but closed out the Blue Jays. Whatever Ozzie Guillen is doing is working very, very well. Just assume that Takatsu (8 for 9 in saves) and Hermanson (5 for 5) will get most save opportunities, with Marte picking up the odd chance when several left-handers are due up.

In other news, interim (?) Royals closer Ambiorix Burgos went 2 2/3 scoreless in picking up a win Sunday. The entire Royals team has recorded two saves on the season, so it's safe to say that whoever winds up with their closer role won't be helping anyone out THAT much, but Burgos is clearly making his case to keep the job even after Affeldt returns. In 6.2 innings of work this season, he's put up a 1.35 ERA and struck out 7 men. He's allowed 3 hits and only one run.

Monday Notes

2005-05-09T08:22:00.000-05:00

Some things that have happened that didn't escape our glance...

Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune is reporting that Ryan Dempster is now the closer for Cubs. Also, if he succeeds early in the role, he may well hold on to it after Joe Borowski's return from his AAA-Iowa rehab stint.
Ambiorix Burgos had a good old-fashioned closer appearance yesterday. He came into a tie game in the 7th inning with runners on base. He got out of the jam, pitched brilliantly in the 8th and 9th and earned his first win of the year. The kid showed some steel in getting it done, and may have the stuff of a good closer. But he's still on the Royals.
Trevor Hoffman saved his 400th game. Lee Smith and John Franco are the only men with more. At some point, Matt and I will debate his credentials for the Hall of Fame. Personally, as one of the two best closers of the post-Eck era, I think he should be in.
Derrick Turnbow, who you no doubt first learned of here, continues to look impressive. Something that I learned from Peter Gammons this weekend though, Turnbow was busted for steroids while pitching in the Angels system last year. Just an FYI...

Borowski looking good at AAA Iowa.

2005-05-04T14:19:00.000-05:00

Joe Borowski made his debut with the AAA Iowa Cubs last night, and pitched a perfect inning with two strikeouts. Cubs Nation eagerly awaits his return.

And if you're wondering why JoBo's return is so desperately anticipated, take a look at what STATS, Inc. (via Cubs.com) has to say about current Cubs closer LaTroy Hawkins:

The folks at STATS, Inc., did a little extra research on LaTroy Hawkins and
pitchers and their effectiveness in the ninth inning. Since 1995, Hawkins is
17-for-30, or 57 percent, with a one-run lead in the ninth, while STATS,
Inc., says all pitchers in baseball have a 75.1 percent success ratio.
With a two-run lead, Hawkins has a 91.3 percent ratio, while the rest of
baseball is at 89.4 percent. And, STATS, Inc., says Hawkins has an 89.5 percent
success ratio with a three-run lead while other pitchers have a 95.5 percent
rate.

57 percent conversion rate with a 1-run lead? Terrible numbers, true, but it's worse than you think. He's only 7 for 17 as the Cubs closer in those situations - a wretched 41% clip. That means that during his stint as the Twins closer, he managed to go 10-for-13.... 76% - slightly above the league average! (And he still managed to get permanently bounced from that closer role.... the Twins may have been on to something.)

If Borowski returns and closes out games as he has in the past, it will be a shot in the arm for a Cubs team that desperately needs something - anything - to go right. As always, time will tell.

Around the Horn

2005-05-03T09:56:00.000-05:00

Looks like Jim Brower is the man in San Francisco, at least for now. Of course, he blew last night's save, so Felipe Alou may call a different name for the next save opportunity. It's not like any one of SF's myriad journeyman middle relievers is really any better than the rest of them.

Todd Jones picked up a save in Florida, owing to the fact that Guillermo Mota AND Antonio Alfonseca are on the DL. The injury to the former hurts the Fish's chances, but the injury to the latter spared all of South Florida from the spectacle of Pulpo in the 9th inning.

As John Hill at the Cub Reporter noted yesterday, the Reds bullpen picked up what has to be the most hilarious blown save of all time, allowing the Cards to come back from a 9-3 deficit... with most of the damage coming with two outs. Cincinnati relied on the twin scourges of David Weathers and Danny Graves to handle the ninth inning - a combo who, you may recall, combined for the weakest save ever recorded.

It should be only a matter of time until Ryan Wagner takes over as the primary closer in Cincinnati. Danny Graves has allowed a run in 7 of his last 9 appearances, (although he's somehow picked up saves in 7 of those outings), which simply isn't going to work over the long haul. Then again, Graves has been on the verge of losing the Cincinnati closer job for years, and it never seems to happen.

No other movement on the closer carousel, but for a while there, it looked like Ryan Dempster may have been headed for the Cubs bullpen, and rumors were circulating that he could even be the closer. Kerry Wood's injury put and end to that talk. Not that LaTroy Hawkins fantasy owners can rest easy - Joe Borowski will make his first appearance at AAA Iowa today, and every indication points to JoBo returning to the closer role as soon as he's able. We'll keep you posted.

Eric Gagne Faces Two Game Suspension for "Jockeying".

2005-04-29T15:55:00.000-05:00

It's been a trying year for Eric Gagne. First, he injured his knee. Then he injured his elbow while favoring the knee. Now, after a month of rehab, he'll have to wait a little bit longer.

We all remember how Gagne got himself ejected on Opening Day for heckling an umpire from the dugout. Seems like getting ejected for arguing balls and strikes is the thing to do lately... Everybody's getting into the act!

However, it seems like while ACTIVE players just get a one-way ticket to the clubhouse for arguing, the punishment for players on the DL is a little more stringent. MLB has suspended Gagne for two games, starting from his activation from the DL, and fined him an undisclosed amount.

The precedent for the punishment: MLB Rule 3.17 states that a player on the DL is "permitted to participate in pre-game activity and sit on the bench during a game but may not take part in any activity during the game such as warming up a pitcher, bench jockeying, etc."

Gagne was clearly not caught warming up a pitcher, which means that he must have been suspended for "bench jockeying".

While it may be true that the term "bench jockeying" is hilariously antiquated (why not suspend him for tomfoolery or shenanigans?), it's equally clear that "bench jockeying" is no laughing matter. Especially because Gagne, at 6'2" and 235 lbs, is far too large to be a jockey of any sort.

Gagne will throw in back-to-back bullpen sessions on Friday and Saturday. If all goes well, he'll face live hitters, and will then presumably be activated from the DL two games before he's ready, just to stick it to the man.

One More Sim Game for Borowski

2005-04-29T09:27:00.000-05:00

Good news for Cubs fans - potential closer Joe Borowski, who has been on the DL since March 25 with a broken wrist, will be traveling with the team to Houston.

Unfortunately, the only in-game action he'll see in Clutch City will be of the simulated variety. This will be JoBo's second, and presumably final, sim game.

As Mike Kiley of the Sun-Times noted today, "Borowski was impressive in a simulated game Wednesday, but pitching coach Larry Rothschild wanted to see him throw one more time to build up his strength before allowing him to face minor-league hitters." So, he'll pitch a simulated game on Saturday or Sunday at Minute Maid Park.

The word out of Wrigley was that Borowski's velocity was great on Wednesday, but that he needed some work on his control. Which is expected after a month on the shelf with a broken pitching wrist, of course, but pinpoint control is 90% of Borowski's game, so he'll need a bit more practice before he starts seeing any save ops.

The Cubs are off to Milwaukee next week, but you can expect JoBo to catch a flight from Houston to Des Moines, where he'll spend a few games tuning up with the I-Cubs. When he gets back to Chicago, it's probably only a matter of time before he reclaims the closer role.

Who is this guy?

2005-04-29T09:25:00.000-05:00

We've hit the point in the season where injuries (read below) and ineffectiveness (ditto) open doors to pitchers that no one has ever heard of. Today's example is Derrick Turnbow. That's him getting a talking to from pitching coach Mike "Big Brother" Maddux. A failed prospect in the Angels organization, he bounced over to Milwaukee. Upon Mike Adams's ineffectiveness, he was given the keys to the closer coupe, and is 2 for 2 so far. So who is he?

The 27 year old Turnbow grew up in Nashville as a Cardinals fan. When waived by the Angels in October of 2004, the Brewers snatched him up. A right-handed pitcher who has been known to throw in the upper-90's, manager Ned Yost believes that he has the stuff to make it as a major league closer. After all, he's racked up 3 saves in his minor league career.

Wait, huh, what? Okay, so he wasn't a minor league closer. He must have had impressive numbers over the past couple of seasons. Well, not exactly. Take a look at these lines...

2003: Salt Lake (AAA): 55 IP, 5.73 ERA, 63 K, 22, BB, 68 hits allowed.
2004: Salt Lake (AAA): 74.2 IP, 5.06 ERA, 56 K, 42, BB, 75 hits allowed.

As you see, the strikeout totals are solid (if he's throwing in the upper 90's, they should be), but the ERA is very high (even for a hitters park in SLC). Also, his walk rate is rising and strikeout rate is falling. Not good. If closers can be compared through the ages, this is definitely off of the Mitch Williams branch of the closer tree. Not the Eck, Quiz, or Fingers branch. And not off the good part of the Williams branch (like the '89 or '93 seasons).

So what should we expect from Mr. Turnbow? My guess is that we'll see Mike MacDougal circa 2003 again. Some effectiveness. Some wildness. And a different Brewers closer by June 2006.

Armando Benitez Out "At Least Four Months".

2005-04-27T21:37:00.000-05:00

Details are still a bit sketchy, but Giants trainer Stan "I'm not Victor" Conte confirmed tonight that Armando Benitez is out for "at least the next four months" with a pair of torn tendons in his right hamstring. If my calculations are correct, that puts Benitez out until at least the final month of the season.

Benitez will go under the knife on Tuesday.

Even before the injury, Benitez has struggled to regain his past form. As we noted at the beginning of the season, Benitez' K/9 rates have declined in each of the past several seasons. Manager Felipe Alou had been underwhelmed by Benitez stuff in the early going, recently noting that "he seems to be pitching uphill and at times without any life on the ball -- no velocity, nothing extra."

Former (and future?) Giants closer Matt Herges indicated that the entire SF bullpen is ready to step up and fill Benitez' shoes, saying that "it's too bad about Armando, but we'll hold the fort until he comes back." It remains to be seen whether the Giants will entrust their ninth-inning leads to Herges, who was relieved of the closer role after getting roughed up last season.

Other candidates for saves include Jason Christiansen, Jeff Fassero, and Jim Brower.

Benitez Hurt in Giants' Win

2005-04-27T11:43:00.000-05:00

Along with the injury notes that Matt passed on, SF Giants Closer Armando Benitez suffered a hamstring injury on the last play of last night's win.

Benitez, a bear of a man who was to lift San Francisco's closer role to a high level after it struggled last season, suffered a right hamstring strain while running to first on the last out of the game.

This could leave the bullpen in turmoil.

"We won't really know too much more tonight," said Giants trainer Stan Conte, explaining Benitez will undergo an MRI exam Wednesday morning to determine the extent of muscle damage.

The veteran pitcher hopped on the bag in pain as Snow grabbed a Geoff Blum grounder and tossed it to Benitez, who hustled over to cover first. Benitez was carried off the field and had to be taken upstairs to the Giants clubhouse by a lift.

"It could be as little as a couple of days, but with a hamstring that's significant enough to have to be carried off, it could be a couple of weeks," said Conte. "It's real hard to speculate at this point.

"He's never had a problem with his hamstring before, but it's pretty significant and we'll have to take a look at it," added Conte, indicating there's a wide range. "They're hard to predict, and we don't want to get ahead of ourselves."

San Francisco's pen has not been a strong point this year, but Matt Herges held the job for half of last year and would seem to be the most likely candidate to fill in again.

(EDIT: 2:20 PM CDT - As expected, Benitez was assigned to the DL with an injured hamstring. While Herges is the presumptive closer, we'll keep an eye on the situation.)

Injury Updates - Gagne, Borowski on the Mend, Izzy Injured

2005-04-27T11:18:00.000-05:00

ERIC GAGNE COMPLETES PAIN-FREE BULLPEN SESSION, THROWS FROM MOUND

It's been a long wait for Dodgers fans and Eric Gagne fantasy owners, but it appears that baseball's top closer is finally making measurable progress toward returning to the bullpen.

Eric Gagne threw 60 pitches, including curveballs, during a flat-ground bullpen session on Monday. When he was pain-free after that session, he talked his trainers into letting him throw from a mound - and he threw 11 fastballs without incident. Pitching coach Jim Colborn said that "(o)verall, he looked better than I hoped for. He looked stronger and his delivery was good. He's pain-free. It was an encouraging day."

JOE BOROWSKI TO THROW SIMULATED GAME TODAY, EYES RETURN

Where have you gone, Joe Borowski? Cubs Nation turns its lonely eyes to you. In the aftermath of Dusty Baker's reported decision to reinstate LaTroy Hawkins as closer, Cubs fans everywhere have pinned their hopes on the one man that can deliver them from their torment - JoBo. Fortunately, he may be back sooner rather than later. According to the Chicago Tribune, Joe Borowski will throw a simulated game today, and hopes to get back on the mound immediately.

While a brief rehab stint at AAA Iowa will probably be necessary, Borowski said on Tuesday that "if everything's sharp on Wednesday, we can go map something out."

JASON ISRINGHAUSEN SUFFERS ABDOMINAL INJURY, WILL BE CHECKED TODAY

Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen, who is 7-for-7 in saves this season with a 1.08 ERA, suffered a strained abdominal muscle in the 9th inning of Tuesday's game against Milwaukee. He'll be examined today, at which time it will be determined if he'll need to spend time on the DL. Barry Weinberg, the Cardinals' head athletic trainer, discussed the injury after Tuesday's game:

"We have to wait until tomorrow to see how bad it is. It's hard to tell initially. In normal cases, right-handed people strain the left side. This is on the right side, so we'll have to see. We'll just have to assess it tomorrow morning. Tomorrow morning it will be evident, the extent of it."

If Izzy spends time on the DL, it's likely that either Ray King or Julian Tavarez will be handed any save opportunities.

Tom Update: And as of 3:00 today, Izzy is on the DL.

Well, that didn't take long.

2005-04-27T09:49:00.000-05:00

According to Rick Morrissey at the Chicago Tribune, the Post-LaTroy Era is over in Wrigley. Carrie Muskat at Cubs.com comes up with, more or less, the same conclusion. That's right, Cubs fans... Hawk will probably be "protecting" the Cubs' next 9th-inning lead, and you can bet that the booing that he'll receive will be something to behold.... worse than anything that Wrigley has heard since the Pulpo days.

Just three days ago, Dusty indicated that he was going "back to the drawing board", and that going forward, he would be using a "closer-by-situation" system. Apparently, that actually meant "I'll be completely dependent upon Chad Fox in every possible situation, unless his arm explodes, in which case we're going back to LaTroy."

After Fox went down, Dusty said that his new closer may be someone already in his bullpen - "Somebody we already have, somebody you either aren't counting on or somebody that the public already don't like." You get one guess as to who he may be referring to. When pressed, Dusty admitted that "we're probably in the same boat as we were". Apparently, there was no Plan B after Chad Fox.

Obviously, this is all still speculation at this point. Moreover, there's a chance that Joe Borowski could put this whole sad saga to rest in just a few days. But last night, in a close game that saw Dusty call for 6 relievers, he never even warmed LaTroy up. (Mike Wuertz, for what it's worth, started the 7th, and gave up 2 earned runs, while his defense committed 2 errors.) The only possible implication is that Dusty was holding LaTroy back for a potential save situation.

It is becoming increasingly clear that Dusty Baker has no plan for his bullpen, and that he's simply making this up as he goes along. For now, I fully expect LaTroy Hawkins to be handed the next Cubs' save opportunity, and we can fully expect him to keep on blowing about 30% of those saves, and about 66% of 1-run saves.

In happier news for Cubs fans, Joe Borowski will throw a simulated game today. Cubs fans everywhere wish him an incredibly speedy recovery.

Batista's New Role

2005-04-26T15:10:00.000-05:00

Great article by Sean McAdam on Miguel Batista's recent success (yes, we all know it's early) as the Blue Jays' closer. The part that I found most interesting was this:

In many ways, Batista is the perfect candidate to convert. Notoriously durable – Batista routinely would long toss in the outfield a day after throwing more than 100 pitches in a start – he also had the reputation of losing his concentration over the course of his starts. "It seems like he loses a little interest when he starts,'' noted catcher Gregg Zaun. "Miguel gets a little less creative when he closes.''

That is the same reasoning that Tony LaRussa gave when he moved up-and-down starter Dennis Eckersley to the role from his previous position to closer. I'm not saying that Batista will have the same success that Eck did (in part, because Eck was a much better starter that Batista has been), but it does highlight an example of a team with limited resources using their brains to work around their funding.

Cubs Still Searching for a Closer - Down Goes Fox!

2005-04-26T10:06:00.000-05:00

It's Day 2 of the Post-LaTroy Era, and the Cubs' bullpen situation isn't even close to settled.

It's been clear since training camp that Joe Borowski was going to see plenty of save opportunities this season, but he's still working his way back from a broken wrist, and will probably be unavailable until next weekend at the earliest. (He has been throwing from a mound, will throw a simulated game on Wednesday, and he's eager to return as soon as possible, for what that's worth.)

Chad Fox was tabbed as the interim closer, and he nailed down a 3-run save on Sunday. It made for a great story - just one year ago, Chad Fox thought his career was over due to a nerve problem (ulnar neuritis) in his elbow, which may have been related to the stress placed on his elbow from throwing too many sliders. He was brought into Cubs training camp as a non-roster invitee, pitched well enough to make the team, and amazingly enough, had apparently landed the closer role during the first month of the season.

Well, that may be over. Fox entered Monday night's game with the Cubs leading 10-3 (an "interesting" decision by Dusty Baker, who had previously emphasized Fox's fragility, and indicated that Fox would be used as sparingly as possible), and Fox proceeded to walk two hitters, gave up a 3-run bomb to Adam Dunn, walked Rich Aurilia, and ran the count to 3-1 on Jason LaRue before leaving the game with... you guessed it, a sore elbow.

Mike Remlinger entered the game to finish out the Reds, and it's possible that he could be in line for some save opportunities until JoBo returns. Possible, but not all that likely. Remlinger is still the primary lefty in the Cubs' pen. Moreover, the main reason that Remmy entered Monday's game at all is because he'd started warming up - and Fox had sat down - when the Cubs went up 10-3.

So who's the next "interim closer", while we wait for JoBo? As we discussed below, if Dusty's paying attention, it's Michael Wuertz. But that's really asking a lot of Dusty, and we all know that Dusty likes to give prominent roles to older players. Remlinger (7.11 ERA) was born in 1966, while Wuertz (0.96 ERA) was born in 1978. As such, I assume that Remlinger will get the next crack at the 9th inning. But as a Cub fan, I really hope it's Wuertz.

Tom: Update, as of 4/26/05, 3 PM Chad Fox was placed on the DL. Details to follow.

Two bits

2005-04-26T09:20:00.000-05:00

1) Remember when I wrote about the new and improved Detroit Tigers bullpen and opined that they had three closers? Who would have thought that they would be the LAST team in MLB to garner a save. And yet they were. The amazing thing is that for their 8-10 record, this was their first win by fewer than 4 runs. And while Matt dissected how there are ways to garner cheap saves in blowouts, the Tigers haven't had a lot of chances. Troy Percival is now 1 for 2 in chances, and while Urbina and Farnsworth have blown saves, they are of the 8th inning variety. Congratulations Detroit. I have a feeling it won't be your last of the year.

2) If you've followed the link that accompanies the line score graphic at the top of the page, you've noticed that Closing Time sponsors the Rod Beck page at Baseball Reference. He's kind of our unofficial mascot (and Matt's hero). Therefore, when I find a Shooter Story, I feel obliged to report it. From today's Chicago Tribune:

Former Cubs closer Rod Beck, who lived in his recreational vehicle while
rehabbing his injured right arm at Triple-A Iowa two years ago, recently sold
his house in Scottsdale, Ariz., for $2.5 million. The house and guesthouse sit
on five acres near Pinnacle Peak. Beck, who saved 51 games for the Cubs in 1998,
announced his retirement from baseball last season after being released by the
San Diego Padres.

Bullpen Shakeup at Wrigley

2005-04-25T13:22:00.000-05:00

Today's Chicago Tribune reports on what we all already knew - Chad Fox is the Cubs' brand-new closer. Sometimes. But never more than two days in a row, and probably only until Joe Borowski returns from his busted wrist, which could be within a week.

LaTroy Hawkins will return to the 8th inning, where he has been fantastic throughout his career. This move is a win-win for the Cubs: While removing LaTroy Hawkins from his 9th-inning duties is addition by subtraction, adding a LaTroy Hawkins as your primary set-up man is definitely addition by addition.

In any case, Fox is probably only a short-term fix at closer. Obviously, the Cubs would like nothing more than for JoBo to return to form. It is, however, becoming abundantly clear that Mike Wuertz is the Cubs' heir apparent at closer.

Wuertz, 26, has emerged as the best of the Cubs' young bullpen arms. He spent 2004 as the closer at AAA Iowa, where he recorded 19 saves, put up a 2.42 ERA, and struck out 9.3 batters per 9 innings, while holding opposing batters to a .181 average. After Sunday's game, Wuertz subtly lobbied for the closer role, saying that "(Closing) is definitely something I like. I like the pressure, the situation of the game. I've always been that way... I always wanted to be the one who got the last shot or the game-winning kick. I want the ball in my hand."

Of course, Dusty Baker will be the one making the final decision on who pitches in the 9th. But when Dusty was asked on Sunday if Wuertz was going to take over as his closer, his reply spoke volumes:

"Not yet."

Chicago, Kansas City, and Chicago Closer Updates

2005-04-25T09:35:00.001-05:00

First off, Chicago. Aside from playing the best baseball in the league this year, the White Sox lead the sport in saves. Nine one-run games (record, 8-1) will do that. Ozzie Guillen appears to have set his bullpen pattern. Either Hermanson or Marte will pitch the 8th inning (depending on lefty/righty splits of the good hitters). Takatsu gets first crack ay the 9th. However, if he doesn't have it (and it's been easy to tell when that's been the case) whichever of the 8th inning pitchers that hasn't been used yet gets to clean up his mess. All and all, it seems like a smart way to use three quality relievers who have been known to be streaky. And, you can't argue with 15-4, can you?

Next stop, Kansas City. Tony Pena has said that Ambiorix Burgos, who was called up from Double-A Wichita on Saturday, will replace Mike MacDougal as closer while Jeremy Affeldt heals. MacDougal lost the gig when he blew a game in the Rollerdome on Thursday afternoon. Since the Royals are the worst team in the AL, Burgos may not get a save opportunity before Affeldt gets healthy. And that's sad.

Finally, on the north-side of Chicago, Dusty Baker has inkled that Chad Fox may be the Cubs closer du jour. At least until Joe Borowski gets completely healed. Either way, LaTroy is LaOut. And that has to be LaRelief to LaCubs fans LaEars.

Ambiorix in KC (for the long-term?), Turnbow in MIL

2005-04-25T09:35:00.000-05:00

Ambiorix Burgos closing in KC, MacDougal (and Affeldt?) Out

As Tom notes immediately below, Ambiorix Burgos has been recalled from Double-A Wichita, will take over as the closer, effective immediately. In his major-league debut on Saturday, he pitched a scoreless ninth inning in a tie ballgame - while MacDougal took the loss in the tenth.

"He's got electric stuff, and his field awareness is much improved", said GM Allen Baird. At AA Wichita, Burgos was 1-1 with a mediocre 4.50 ERA and a remarkable 17 strikeouts in eight innings. He appears to have had only one bad outing, because he posted six scoreless innings in seven appearances. Burgos' fastball reportedly tops out at 100 MPH.

No word yet on whether Burgos is just holding down the fort until Jeremy Affeldt returns, but if I had to speculate (and, since that's the entire point of this website, I do), I'd say that Burgos will be given every opportunity to seize the closer role for the long-term while Affeldt recuperates. Pena and Baird are both quite high on him. If he performs well over the next couple of weeks, the job could be his for good. If he struggles, even a little, it could mean a 200-mile bus trip back to Wichita.

Mike Adams Out, Derrick Turnbow Earns Save in MIL.

Mike Adams, we hardly knew ye. In fact, the vast majority of MLB fans and fantasy owners couldn't pick the Brewers' former closer out of a police lineup. And for the time being, that won't matter too much. Derrick Turnbow picked up his first save on Sunday, and according to Brewers' manager Ned Yost, Turnbow will get the next save opportunity, too.

Dusty Baker wakes up - LaTroy Hawkins finally out in Chicago?

2005-04-24T10:29:00.000-05:00

LaTroy Hawkins, whose struggles as the Cubs' closer have been obvious to everyone in the nation except Dusty Baker, has finally, at long last, gotten "Johnny Toothpick" to notice his remarkable knack for failure.

I was in attendance at yesterday's Cubs/Pirates game (brief recap: 24-degree windchill, Maddux flirts with a no-hitter until Patterson misplays a Jason Bay warning-track fly that would have gone 500 feet if not for the swirling winds, DuBois is completely locked in, hitting everything hard, so Dusty, of course, lifts him for Jose Macias, Patterson's HR puts the Cubs up 3-2 in the 8th, Dusty calls on LaTroy Hawkins to protect the 1-run lead.)

Anyway, LaTroy has been remarkably bad in 1-run save situations. Historically bad. In fact, he has blown 10 of the 16 1-run save situations that he's faced as a Cub. He's 6-for-16. And of course, he gave up 2 runs yesterday, giving the Pirates the win.

After the game, Dusty expressed puzzlement that his in-game strategy had blown up so spectactularly:

"We have go back to the drawing board on something else, that's what we have to do. It seems like he hasn't been good with one-run leads. I can't figure it out. He has the stuff. I can't figure it out right now."

In all likelihood, Joe Borowski will be given a shot at closing when he returns this week. He'd won the job in spring training prior to breaking his hand, he's been successful in the role in the past, and Dusty likes veterans - especially veterans who have had success for Dusty-led teams. There's also a chance that Mike Wuertz or Chad Fox could see the next save opportunity. As always, we'll keep you posted.

It's a mad, mad world

2005-04-20T09:08:00.000-05:00

Another time (and maybe in another place) I'll be more than happy to discuss baseball attendance in Chicago and the ump-teen mistakes that the Sox have made. But for today, I thought that I'd point out the league leaders in saves.

AL: Francisco Cordero, Tex., 6
NL: Brandon Lyon, Arz., 5
Danny Graves, Cin., 5
Jason Isringhausen, St.L, 5

Just like everyone predicted at the beginning of the season.

I know it's early, but it's the fickleness of this stat that causes so many such consternation. Opportunity is such a huge part of it. And yet (as I think of the highlights of Foulke and Adams giving up runs in the 9th), opportunity is only part of it. And many of the same baseball men who degrade the save, lionize the RBI. And the RBI is the biggest opportunity stat out there. So, are we to believe that Brandon Lyon is the next big thing, while Rivera, Foulke and Looper have lost it?

And by the way, Cordero has his 6 saves in 8 opportunities. Which might just answer the question.

Et tu, Marte?

2005-04-19T22:36:00.000-05:00

We're following the ChiSox closer situation about as closely anyone can. Tom's been a huge Sox fan since Ozzie Guillen was a swing-at-everything shortstop, and since I live in Chicago, I'm able to attend the odd game at US Cellular. (I'm going to start calling the park by its corporate name, because the corporate cash paid for a pretty decent renovation.) Plus, the White Sox closer situation is clearly the one to follow right now - it is absolutely wide open.

In any case, I was at Saturday's Mariners/ChiSox contest, a game in which, ironically, no relievers were used. (Way to get the scoop, Matt!) However, while Guillen let Buehrle finish out a 2-1 victory, he only made one call to the bullpen, and that was to get Mr. Zero warmed up - just in case.

As a side note, why can't the White Sox sell out US Cellular on a 74-degree Saturday afternoon when they're in first place, and running a promotion in which all tickets are $7.50 or less?! (Our outfield boxes were $6.50, and upper-deck seats were $5.) 25,000 happy fans watched a double complete-game... but the place holds 47,000. Meanwhile, the Cubs pack in 33,000 on a 40-degree Wednesday afternoon. But I digress.

As Tom noted, Hermanson pitched the 8th inning of Monday's tilt with the Twins, striking out two.... and Takatsu got the save by the skin of his teeth, allowing 1 run to score while protecting a 2-run lead.

Tuesday night brought us another close ChiSox win over the Twins - and believe me, these close wins over MIN in April will be fondly remembered come September - and once again Guillen brought in Hermanson for a scoreless 8th inning. And once again, Guillen entrusted Takatsu with a 2-run lead in the 9th. However, after Zero gave up a double to Stewart and an RBI single to Matt LeCroy, Guillen had seen enough, and called for Damaso Marte, who finished the job.

At this point, you could say that Takatsu is on the hot seat, but that would be quite an understatement. He's practically a lame duck. But you Marte owners shouldn't get too excited - it's equally clear that Hermanson is next in line for the closer role, and would have finished tonight's game if he hadn't already pitched a scoreless 8th. Guillen hasn't made any kind of official announcement, but we would not be shocked if Hermanson was handed the next 9th inning CWS lead.

Hermanson, a converted starter, recently had this to say about coming out of the bullpen:

"Closing is a different game, completely different. It's all about getting guys out, but the preparation is different. You have to be a power guy coming out of the pen, but when you are a starter, you have to be in long endurance-type of physical condition. But even when I started, I acted like a closer who was starting. I just closed every inning."

So, maybe it's Hermanson going forward. Then again, the Sox seem to be winning every day, and why mess with what's working? Plus, they've already got the sweet "GONG" sound effect cue for Shingo, and they'd hate to let that go to waste and all. We'll keep you posted.

Woo Woo

2005-04-19T15:51:00.000-05:00

This will have Matt in tears (and I only heckle since it appears that all is fine and there are no serious injuries)...

Famous Cubs fan Ronald "Ronnie Woo Woo" Wickers was slightly injured Monday when he was hit by a car backing out of a parking space near Wrigley Field.Wickers, 64, was taken to Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center, where he was treated for minor injuries and then released, said Chicago police spokesman Carlos Herrera. Robert Kregas, 58, of Hillside was cited with striking a pedestrian in a roadway after striking Wickers while backing his car in the 3600 block of North Clark Street, Herrera said.Wickers, who told the Chicago Tribune in 2002 that he is "the biggest Cubs fan in the whole universe," washes windows in the Wrigleyville neighborhood.

For those of you unfamilliar, "Woo Woo" is not only his nickname, but his calling card. He literally walks through the bleachers hollering "Woo Woo" throughout games. It's annoying. Kind of like most things about Wrigley Field...

Still Shingo, but...

2005-04-19T08:52:00.000-05:00

Ozzie Guillen used Dustin Hermanson in the 8th and Shingo Takatsu in the 9th to protect a 5-3 lead over the White Sox' archrival Twins. Hermanson gave up a single in 4 batters. Takatsu gave up another home run, but did "nail down" the save 5-4. So for now, it appears that Takatsu is still closing, but with Takatsu's ERA a stone's throw from 12.00, maybe Hermanson will be soon. Or maybe there will be (gasp, no!) closer by committee...

"This is our job. We have to step up."

2005-04-18T09:39:00.000-05:00

Larry Stone at the Seattle Times wrote an excellent piece ("Closers Not Living Up to Their Name", 4/16/05) about the struggles of star closers around the league during the season's first two weeks, and he's included some good quotes from stoppers around the league.

Yeah, there's a little bit of NukeSpeak, ("Playing within ourselves, we gotta play 'em one day at a time, help the club, and the good Lord willing, things will work out"), but there's also some insight into what is clearly a tough assignment. Here's what they had to say:

"I'll bet if you go over the last few years, there's probably been a lot of blown saves in a week; just not at the beginning of the season. Because the games just started, and it's so fresh, it seems like a lot." - Jeremy Affeldt, KC

"There's a little bit of nerves involved. You take six months off, and you wonder if your stuff is still going to be successful." - Trevor Hoffman, SD

"You have to think about what you did, think about what happened, let your frustration out, and once you hit those doors out of this locker, you have to forget it. If you dwell on it, you're in trouble. This is our job. We have to step up for the team. You have to have a real short memory. It's tough to do, but you have to learn how to deal with it." - Eddie Guardado, SEA

We still haven't seen any closers relieved of their duties - not officially, anyway - but it has clearly been a rough couple of weeks for some very highly paid closers in some pretty high-profile situations.

You know, this is a pretty simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. But if the great Trevor Hoffman can admit that pitching is different, more nerve-wracking, in the final frame, it goes a long way towards explaining why certain pitchers are Superman in the 8th inning and kryptonite in the 9th.

Changing of the Guard in Chicago and KC?

2005-04-15T22:19:00.000-05:00

CHICAGO WHITE SOX TURN TO HERMANSON

Dustin Hermanson has picked up the save in each of the last two ChiSox wins. The first one wasn't surprising - manager Ozzie Guillen had indicated that Shingo "Mr. Zero" Takatsu would not be used against Cleveland after his 3-HR meltdown vs. the tribe last week.

Friday night, however, was a different story, and indicates that Guillen may have run out of patience with Takatsu. The ChiSox entered the 9th inning with a 4-run lead, and Luis Vizcaino put the first two men on base - creating a save situation.

So, naturally, Guillen turned to Mr. Ze... no, wait... Damaso Marte?

Marte promptly plunked Raul Ibanez, loading the bases. Guillen then called for Mr. Zero, who gave up a 2-run scoring single to Bret Boone, and then walked Randy Winn. With a 2-run lead and 2 men on, Ozzie had seen enough. He called in Hermanson, who closed Seattle out for his 2nd save.

While it's probably too early to call this the end of ShingoTime on the South Side, it's becoming clear that Guillen is increasingly turning to Hermanson in critical situations. Remember, he was 17/20 in saves for the SF Giants down the stretch in 2004.

MACDOUGAL RELIEVES AFFELDT IN KC

This one has less to do with effectiveness as it does with durability. Jeremy Affeldt, a pitcher that Tom has been swooning over for years (seriously, he's got a total man-crush on the guy), has some injury issues. He's had blisters that led to fingernail removal, he's torn up the muscles in his rib cage... he's no stranger to the DL.

On Friday, he was effective enough to retire the first two hitters he faced, but left the game after throwing one pitch to Carlos Guillen. Former Royals closer Mike MacDougal entered the game and retired Guillen for his first save of the year.

It appears that this time, the problem is Affeldt's groin. We'll keep you posted, but if the problem lingers, it's clear that Mac will get the ninth inning opportunities. It's equally clear that manager Tony Pena absolutely loves MacDougal - even when Mac was struggling with control issues and was sent to AAA Omaha last season, Pena continued to talk him up.

We'll keep an eye on both situations, but obviously Affeldt's injury status will dictate who is closing in KC. I doubt that Ozzie Guillen knows who is the ChiSox closer at this moment, but it's clear that Hermanson has all the momentum.

Quick Injury Updates

2005-04-14T12:13:00.000-05:00

Rockies reliever Chin-Hui Tsao was activated from the DL yesterday, threw a scoreless inning, and will assume the role of closer in Colorado. Manager Clint Hurdle indicated that Tsao would not pitch on consecutive days, but seriously, big deal. How often do the Rockies have save opportunities on consecutive days?

In Arizona, Greg Aquino's elbow is inflamed, but structurally sound. He could be throwing within 10 days. However, if the inflammation around his ulnar nerve doesn't subside, he could face nerve transposition surgery, which sounds pretty nasty. In other Arizona ex-closer news, Jose Valverde still has that inflamed biceps tendon, but the D-Backs may call him up from his minor league rehab assignment by the end of the month, and, well, Matt Mantei is in Boston. (I couldn't discuss injured Arizona relievers without mentioning MM at least once.) None of this really matters, because Brandon Lyon has excelled in the ARZ closer role, and he's not giving it back any time soon.

In more important news, Eric Gagne is now feeling only "minor stiffness" in his pitching arm, and is confident that he will begin a throwing program in the next couple of days.

Finally, Joe Borowski and his physicians were happy with the results of his most recent x-ray, and he began some light throwing over the past week. He's still probably a week away from returning, and while there's no guarantee that he'll assume the closer role upon his return, LaTroy Hawkins is 0-for-1 in the young season.

Classy

2005-04-14T08:59:00.000-05:00

Tip of the hat to Dan George of Sports Illustrated for this one...

Billy Koch, the one time closer of the Blue Jays, A's, White Sox and Blue Jays again, wanted to show Toronto just how upset he was that they chose to cut him in spring training (spring stats: 3 IP, 5 ER, opposing OBA of .471). What did he do?

A) Hire a personal trainer, work to get in the best shape of his life, and pitch for Toronto's arch-rival (who is that exactly? Baltimore in the fight for third place? Detroit because of proximity? Washington for leaving Toronto stranded up there?)

B) Write a tell-all Op/Ed to the Toronto Sun.

C) Move on with his life to show Toronto how little they meant to him.

D) Buy a front row ticket to opening day in Tampa and heartily cheer on the Devil Rays.

I guess that he was just lucky that Toronto opened in Tampa. Where else would a front row ticket be available...

39 Blown Saves in 99 MLB Games

2005-04-13T18:51:00.000-05:00

The title says it all - As reported by the Associated Press this morning, we've seen 39 blown saves in the 99 MLB games that had been played through yesterday.

Seems like an astonishing statistic. However, as the article also notes, there were 35 blown saves in the first 102 games played in 2004 - so this year isn't really all that out of the ordinary. One good day for bullpens across the league, and we'll ahead of last year's pace at the completion of today's games.

Quick post

2005-04-12T09:09:00.000-05:00

SI.com has a brief note regarding 'the most feared closers." Does fear matter? I mean, no one really feared Rollie Fingers, but he blew through batters as well (and some times better) than the more fear-imposing closers. Fearsome is nice, but effective is better, no?

What is going on?

2005-04-08T16:37:00.000-05:00

OK, I promise that at some point I'll start writing about things other than blown saves. But I also never expected so many closers to be this ineffective so soon. In the words of Vince Lombardi (as captured beautifully by NFL Films), "What the hell is going on out there?"

Yesterday, Mr. Zero was no hero. Three run lead in the top of the 9th. Three solo home runs. Ouch. White Sox lose in 11.

Yesterday, Dan Kolb came in for Atlanta. Three run lead in the 9th. Gave up a run.

Yesterday, Urbina and Percival worked the 8th and 9th for the Tigers (Albeit in a blowout win). Gave up a total of three runs.

One night after Francisco Cordero blew a save for Texas, Scott Shields (pinch-closing for an overextended Francisco Rodriguez) returns the favor.

I've already discussed Mariano, Trevor, Braden and Wickman.

So where are the 1-2-3 9th innings that closers are supposed to guarantee?

You know it's bad when Baseball Tonight actually catches up to the story. Their angle? Closers don't get enough work in Spring Training. They only get 10 innings. Not nearly enough said Larry Bowa (who by the way, looks frighteningly like Pete Franklin, a bad, over-tanned used car salesman on TV in Kansas City). Maybe it's time for some side sessions, because this is just a mess.

Update: And as of 4:35, add LeTroy Hawkins to the list...

Graves's "Save"

2005-04-08T09:15:00.000-05:00

Cincinnati closer Danny Graves was credited with his first save of the year on Thursday, in a game that the Reds won 6-1. While that fact is noteworthy in and of itself, it should also be noted that Graves faced only one batter, who he retired, for a grand total of
1/3 of an inning pitched. In fact, he only threw two pitches, total. So how can Graves earn a save in a game that he entered while the Reds led by five, with two outs in the ninth inning? At first glance, it just seems wrong.

Upon further review, it still looks ugly, and perhaps constitutes an improper application of baseball's save rule.

Obviously, we'll turn to check major league baseball's save rule (10.20) for an explanation. According to the rulebook, a pitcher is credited with a save when he records the final out of a game that his team wins (well, obviously), and in which he is not also the winning pitcher. (So sorry, Chad Cordero - you only get a win for yesterday's effort, not a win and a save.) In addition, the game-finishing pitcher must qualify under one of the following conditions:

(a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or

(b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces); or

(c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings.

Condition (a) is the save that we see the most often - the stopper comes out to start the 9th inning when his team leads by 3 or fewer runs, and slams the door. Condition (c) is relatively rare - you really only see it a handful of times a year. It typically involves a mop-up reliever finishing the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of a blowout victory. Danny Graves' save falls under Condition (b) - but only arguably.

What isn't arguable is that Graves' performance against the Mets stretches the save definition to its very limit. David Weathers started the ninth inning for the Reds, and recorded two outs. He also gave up a hit and walked two men, loading the bases. The Reds were ahead by five. The bases were loaded (three potential runs), Graves faced the player at-bat (the fourth potential run), and the batter representing the fifth run - the potential tying run - was in the on-deck circle.

Even if we consider Condition (b), it is arguable that Graves should not have been awarded a save. Condition (b) of the save rule requires that the potential tying run is "one of the first two batsmen that (the finishing pitcher) faces." Obviously, Graves never faced the hitter representing the potential tying run... he never had to, because Weathers had already recorded two outs! Graves retired the only batter he faced, and the potential tying run was left in the on-deck circle.

While it is possible - but not certain - that Graves' Save falls under the letter of the save rule, this situation clearly does not fall within the spirit of the rule. It also serves to establish that a revision to the save rule is required - immediately - in order to bring the save rule into accordance with what its designers had originally intended.

If a pitcher enters a game for a "normal" (Condition (a)) save situation, there are zero outs and a maximum three-run lead. As such, the potential tying run is, at the very least, "in the hole" - due up third in the inning.

Simple logic indicates that if a pitcher enters a game with one out in the ninth inning, the tying run should have to be, at a minimum, on deck in order for the pitcher to qualify for a save. Following that same logic, if a pitcher enters a game with two outs in the ninth inning, the pitcher should not qualify for a save unless the batter representing the tying run is actually at the plate.

If Graves had given up a grand-slam homer to the batter he faced, he *still* could have qualified for the save, simply by retiring one of the next few hitters. While MLB has refined and revised the save rule throughout the years, today's events make it clear that an additional revision is most certainly required.

Ranking the Closers - "Preseason" Power Rankings.

2005-04-07T11:58:00.000-05:00

Here is the first edition of our very own Closer Power Rankings - we'll refer to this as the "preseason" list, even though the season is a couple of days old, and even though some early returns have been quite ugly due to injury (Gagne), or ineffectiveness. (Rivera).

As you may expect, these rankings required a decent amount of debate - obviously, about where to rank the individual closers, but also about the very nature of the rankings themselves. Were we ranking the best projected fantasy performers for 2005? The pitchers with the best stuff, regardless of the strength of their team? Obviously, every closer's success is largely dependent upon the success of their team. If they don't get many save opportunities, they won't get many saves.

In the end, we've decided to tilt these rankings toward the "talent" end of the spectrum, while still considering the "team performance/save opportunities" factor to a lesser extent. (Two parts talent, one part team, more or less.)

If you're after an in-depth assessment of a given closer, just check out the Closer Previews published over the past couple weeks. We'll be updating these Rankings on a weekly basis. But for now, here they are:

1. Eric Gagne, Los Angeles Dodgers - Yes, he's hurt. That didn't stop him from getting ejected from yesterday's game, though!
2. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros - Simply unstoppable in the 2004 postseason.
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LA Angels - Finally getting his shot. He's got the repertoire.
4. Billy Wagner, Philadelphia Phillies - Healthy again, more or less.
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees - Has blown 4 consecutive saves vs. Boston.
6. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - Just got it done in 2004. Almost every time out.
7. Keith Foulke, Boston Red Sox - Somehow gets outs, despite a pedestrian fastball.
8. Armando Benitez, SF Giants - Declining K-Rates are a concern, despite an awesome 2004.
9. Trevor Hoffman, SD Padres - All-time great; Padres should be even more improved in '05.
10. Octavio Dotel, Oakland A's - He's got the stuff. He'll get the chances. He just needs to bring it all together.
11. Francisco Cordero, Texas Rangers - Injuries are a concern. Production is not.
12. Jason Isringhausen, STL Cardinals - Steady production, best lineup in the NL.
13. Troy Percival, Detroit Tigers - Urbina wants his job back. Injuries are always a concern.
14. Dan Kolb, Atlanta Braves - We'll see how he performs when people are watching.
15. Chad Cordero, Washington Nats - It's just a matter of time before he makes the Top 10.
16. Shingo Takatsu, Chicago White Sox - Mr. Zero got a tough save on Opening Day.
17. Braden Looper, NY Mets - Absolutely roughed up on Opening Day. Must turn it around.
18. Jeremy Affeldt, KC Royals - Great stuff, and the blister problems may be over. Lousy team.
19. Eddie Guardado, Seattle Mariners - Joe Nathan showed how easy it was to succeed in MIN.
20. B.J. Ryan, Baltimore Orioles - Fantastic stuff. Could shoot up this list in a hurry.
21. Guillermo Mota, Florida Marlins - Mota must show that his skills translate to the 9th.
22. LaTroy Hawkins, Chicago Cubs - With JoBo healing faster than expected, may be headed back to the 8th inning, where he excels.
23. Danny Graves, Cincinnati Reds - Horrendous in 2004's 2nd half. If it's not a hot seat yet, it's certainly getting warm.
24. Danys Baez, TB Devil Rays - Great 2004 may be an aberration. Rough division for an up-and-coming team.
25. Jose Mesa, Pittsburgh Pirates - There is no explanation for his 2004 success. And yet, he continued to get it done.
26. Bob Wickman, Cleveland Indians - Injuries, production, age, conditioning. Where to start?
27. Brandon Lyon, Arizona D-Backs - Great stuff, returning from injury.
28. Mike Adams, Milwaukee Brewers - If Kolb can be successful in MIL, why not Adams?
29. Miguel Batista, Toronto Blue Jays - This has disaster written all over it.
30. Unknown Colorado Reliever, Colorado Rockies - Tsao, Kim, or "Other"... they all have to pitch in Coors.

This gig ain't easy

2005-04-06T16:10:00.000-05:00

And I'm not talking about writing...

This afternoon saw Mariano Rivera blow a save. Again. And it all started with him facing the bottom of the Red Sox lineup. I don't have the data in front of me, but I'm guessing that the last time that he blew saves on back-to-back days against the same team was when he was playing on a sandlot. It was so bad today that he got pulled before he could finish the 9th. Are the Red Sox in his head? Has he lost something?

And about an hour later, Bob Wickman trotted out for the Tribe to knock down a save against the White Sox. Score 3-0. Carl Everett, single. Konerko, home run. Dye, home run. Rowand, double. Pierzinski, intentional walk. Willie Harris, sacrifice bunt, error on Wickman. Bases loaded, no outs. Juan Uribe, sac fly. Good Night everybody. First 6 batters: 3 runs in, 3 men on. Didn't I mention that he may not hold that job long?

So, the question that I feel burning inside me right now is: just how hard is it to save a game? Shouldn't it be as easy as getting three outs in any inning? If not, what enables some to do this so well and others to fail? Why does this "talent" sometimes vanish? Why does it sometimes appear, although the numbers say it shouldn't (paging Mr. Mesa...Mr. Jose Mesa)? To put it in one question, is closing a talent or a job description? Please feel free to comment. I don't know the answer. But I'll be looking all year...

Two Quick Notes

2005-04-05T16:26:00.000-05:00

First, it's only fair to note that Mariano Rivera blew a save but got the win for the Yankees.

Second, and far more interesting, John Smoltz got absolutely rocked in his start against Florida. 6 earned in 1.2 innings rocked. How many bad starts before he goes back to the pen? And yes, this is officially two bad starts premature to be asking this question.

We didn't miss it

2005-04-05T09:12:00.000-05:00

Not lost on us was the fact that as Matt was writing such glowing words about Trevor Hoffman, he was imploding against Colorado. I gave Braden Looper a fair amount of grief, and it is only fair that Hoffman be acknowledged for his stunning performance.

In case you missed it, Trevor gave up 4 runs in 2/3 of the bottom of the 9th. The game ended on the walk-off homer by renowned power hitter Clint Barmes. I'm sure that we can chalk some of this up to Coors Field, some to Opening Day, and some to the randomness of baseball. But Hoffman didn't look like the machine that he used to be. Hells Bells indeed!

2005 Closer Preview Part 6 - NL West

2005-04-04T23:23:00.000-05:00

At long last, the conclusion of our 2005 Closer Preview. This entry takes a look at the NL West, home of one of the greatest closers of all time, the most dominating closer of recent memory, and a couple of bullpens that look pretty brutal. Starting with the latter:

Arizona Diamondbacks – Brandon Lyon (2003: 59 IP, 4.12 ERA, 9/12 SV, 50 K)
If you’re like us, you probably didn’t even notice this closer battle. In fact, you probably picked up Greg Aquino in the late rounds of your draft, figured that you could tuck him away as your 2nd or 3rd closer, and promptly forgot about the entire Arizona bullpen.

Well, as we noted a couple days back, Aquino has been busted up all spring, and when he has pitched, he’s gotten rocked. In the meantime, Brandon Lyon has been lights-out. The winner of this closer battle was apparent on Opening Day, when Aquino entered in the 5th inning, while the D-Backs were getting routed, and proceeded to give up 4 earned runs. So for now, the closer is definitely Brandon Lyon. Lyon missed the entire 2004 campaign to injury, but picked up 9 saves in that mess of a Boston bullpen in 2003. He's looked great all spring, and may hold on to the job for the long term.

Colorado Rockies – Chin-Hui Tsao v. Byung-Hyun Kim v. Everyone else in the Bullpen
The Rockies have cornered the market on hyphenated Korean closers, which is sweet. But at the moment, it really looks like Kim is just washed up. He has mysteriously lost his fastball, and has had absolutely no success of any kind since the 2002 season. The Rockies had hopes that a change of scenery would bring back the dominant Kim of just 3 seasons ago, but the Rockies’ first impression of Kim wasn’t great – 9 batters faced and 8 earned runs, one hitter retired. On the other hand, he pitched a scoreless inning in his second outing.

Tsao is currently on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness. He’s been named the closer, but he’s never played that role in the past. He’s eligible to come off the DL next Saturday. In the meantime, Brian Fuentes will probably close out any leads that the Rocks manage to hold late.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Eric Gagne (2004: 82 1/3 IP, 2.19 ERA, 45/47 SV, 114 K)
Gagne starts the year at #1 on our Closer Rankings, which says something about the dominance that Gagne has displayed over the past three seasons. The man converted 84 consecutive save chances. He also starts the year on the disabled list with a sore elbow, which is certainly a major problem.

Reached for comment, Gagne indicated that his stay on the 15-day DL may be a bit longer than 15 days, and indicated that he wouldn’t rush back and risk reinjury:

“We know it's not major. Dr. Jobe said it's one of the cleanest elbows for a
pitcher. I won't rush back. They said 15 days at least. I don't think it will be
more than two weeks. But they told me the knee would take six weeks and I
thought I'd be fine in a week. It's been five weeks. So I'm not saying if it's
two weeks or longer. I really don't know.”

If Gagne is performing at 100%, he’s the best in the business. If the elbow turns out to be serious – well, closing can be a brutal business, and even the top closers can fall from grace relatively quickly. For now, we’re going to assume the best, and hope that Gagne is back to closing out games in dominating fashion by May. In the meantime, Yhancy Brazoban will handle the ninth.

San Diego Padres – Trevor Hoffman (2004: 54 2/3 IP, 2.31 ERA, 41/45 SV, 53 K)

Still the one.

It’s been eleven years of ringin’ Hell’s Bells in San Diego, and Trevor Hoffman showed in 2004 that he still had it. After his 2003 season was lost to injury, he closed out 41 games with a 2.30 ERA last year.

Hoffman is currently #3 on the all-time career saves leaderboard with 393. With a good 2005 season, he’ll pass John Franco (424), and if he returns for 2006, has an outside chance at catching all-time leader Lee Smith (478), or at least getting close enough to pass him by early 2007. Then again, he just turned 37. Lee Smith’s record may be safe for a while.

San Francisco Giants – Armando Benitez (2004: 69 2/3 IP, 1.29 ERA, 47/51 SV, 62 K)
It's the same old story. You blow a couple of playoff games in New York, and the next thing you know you're left for dead, shipped out of town, and when you wake up, you're in Miami.

Benitez wasn’t horrible with the Mets in ’03, but he’d earned a reputation as a pitcher who can’t lock down the big game. And so, he was shipped to Seattle, and then back to the Bronx as a mercenary arm for the Yanks before landing in Miami for the 2004 season. And what a season he had.

Last year, Benitez was simply fantastic, finishing off 47 of 51 save chances while allowing a 1.29 ERA. However, his strikeouts fell off quite a bit, which indicated the continuation of a troubling trend. Benitez struck out 14.77 batters per 9 innings in 1999, his first season with the Mets – and 12.55, 10.97, 10.56, and 9.25 K/9 over the next 4 seasons. Last year, his K/9 rate fell below 9 for the first time in his career – all the way to 8.01. Fortunately, he cut his walks from 41 to 21 last season, too.

Rod Beck once said that as a closer gets older, all the talent runs out of their arm and up into their head. If Benitez is going to continue his dominance as his K-rates dwindle, he may have to start outsmarting hitters, rather than blowing them away.

That being said, I wouldn’t bet against him just yet.

Firsts...

2005-04-04T16:05:00.000-05:00

Let's see, in the span of about 8 minutes, we had our first blown save (Braden Looper giving up a 2 run dong to Adam Dunn to tie the game...), first loss by a closer (and then Joe Randa made it back-to-back to give Cincy the win), and first save (Takatsu with a perfect 9th for the Sox over the Tribe) of the season.

Think that Pedro misses Keith Foulke? Think that the Post will be kind?

Saves

2005-04-04T11:36:00.000-05:00

Matt will be posting our running list of best closers in a bit. But I wanted to make a couple of guesses for the 2005 season. So, I'll predict that Francisco Rodriguez will lead the AL in saves. I'll predict that Brad Lidge will lead the NL in saves. I'll predict that Dan Kolb will lose his gig by the end of July. I'll predict that Octavio Dotel goes to Atlanta to take that job. I'll predict that Mariano Rivera holds up, Francisco Cordero breaks down, and Joe Nathan just gets the job done.

I'll predict that the Yankees, White Sox (see previous article about hope), Angels, Marlins, Astros, and Padres win their divisions. Minnesota and St. Louis take the wild cards. It'll be the Marlins ove the Astros and the Angels over the Twins. And I'll predict the Angels beating the Marlins in 5.

Opening Day*

2005-04-04T09:12:00.000-05:00

I love opening day. Always have. The optimism. The feeling that this year could be the year...

...That the veteran goes back to hitting .300.
...That picking up the bullpen help in the off-season pays off.
...That the rookie becomes the next Gooden and dominates the league.
...That the closer finds an extra foot on his fastball.
...That the other teams in the division just don't quite have it together.
...That the wind blows out and in at the appropriate times.
...That the skipper brings in the right arm from the bullpen.
...That the ball is fair by a half an inch.
...That the two game lead at the All-Star break may be enough.
...That the veteran slugger is available at the trade deadline.
...That all the important games are at home down the stretch.
...That the division flag is won at home with two games to spare.

This could be the year. So as you gaze at the gates where the Tigers start their season this afternoon, it's okay to dream a little dream. It's that time of year. Play Ball.

Eric Gagne to DL with Sprained Medial Collateral Ligament

2005-04-02T11:57:00.000-06:00

Eric Gagne has been nicked up all spring. He missed two weeks with a knee injury, and while he's had some success after returning, (discussed on this very site, in fact) his velocity hasn't been what we've seen from him in the past - his fastball is topping out at 90, rather than 97 MPH.

Well, we may finally understand why. The Dodgers placed Eric Gagne on the 15-day DL today with a sprained right elbow - more specifically, a sprained medial collateral ligament. Ouch. (For those keeping score at home, that's the same ligament that Gagne had replaced in his 1997 Tommy John surgery.)

Gagne noted that he first felt the pain in the elbow while throwing a breaking pitch to the Mets' David Wright:

"I didn't feel it when I threw the pitch, I felt it when I let my arm down right after the pitch. It's my elbow and I had it before. I feared the worst. It was almost a relief when I got the results. I didn't think it would be that good... It's real frustrating. I wish it happened early in spring. I feel I let down the team."

The Dodgers insist that this latest setback is not related to Gagne's return from his recent knee injury, and GM Paul DePodesta notes that things could be worse, saying that "(t)here's no tear", and "(s)tructurally, he's in real good shape", but that's largely irrelevant for Dodger fans and Gagne fantasy owners. The sad facts are, Eric Gagne has a sprained ligament in his throwing elbow, and there is no timetable set for his return.

Closer Shake-Up in Arizona?

2005-04-01T15:42:00.000-06:00

We've had Greg Aquino penciled in as the D-Backs' closer all spring - but as Steve Gilbert notes at the Diamondbacks' official site, Aquino has had some injury issues this spring that may have opened the door for Brandon Lyon to assume the closer role.

In his first appearance of the spring, Aquino suffered a strained flexor mass in his pitching elbow which put him on the shelf for two weeks. Since his return, Aquino has gotten knocked around pretty badly, to the tune of a 10.13 ERA over 5 1/3 innings. Granted, it's a small sample size, and yes, he struck out 8 men during those 5 1/3 innings, but still, a 10.13 ERA makes one wonder if he's OK, I guess.

D-Backs manager Bob Melvin discussed the team's apprehension with pitching Aquino on consecutive days:

"We want to feel good about him and I don't want to run him out there in a role that he's uncomfortable with, too... we want him to be confident. On Opening Day, we want our closer to have success and feel good about himself."

In the meantime, Brandon Lyon has been scary good all spring, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run over 12 innings, (a 0.75 ERA), while striking out 13 men and walking zero. (Plus, he's probably available on your fantasy league's waiver wire.)

If Lyon has some early success as closer, he may not relinquish the role, even after Aquino fully recovers from his injuries. Which would be ironic, because Aquino's success while filling in for the injured Jose Valverde and Matt Mantei is how he wound up with the job in the first place.

As always, we'll keep you posted.

Dotel to remain an Athletic...for now

2005-04-01T13:55:00.000-06:00

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark is reporting

A's GM Billy Beane continues to tell people that, no matter how impressive Huston Street has been this spring, he's not ready to move Dotel – yet.

"He's just not prepared to do it now, because he's not sure which way his team's going to go," said an official of one team that has talked with Oakland. "But even if they're in it on June 15, Billy's the kind of guy who might still move a Dotel if he thinks Street is ready – except, if they're in it, he'll deal him to get a major-league piece he needs."

No one believes in the idea of closer as a skill less than Beane. That said, if you know someone who can tell you where Dotel will be pitching on October 1st, he's smarter than me. And lying.

2005 Closer Preview Part 5 - AL West

2005-04-01T10:57:00.000-06:00

In our ongoing look at the 2005 closers, I'll put forward that top-to-bottom no division has the talent of the AL West. The only question, of course, is whether that talent will translate into quality relief performances. Well, that's not the only question. I'm still trying to figure out who's the better Francisco...

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - Francisco Rodriguez (2004 Stats: 84 IP, 1.82 ERA, 12/19 SV, 123 K)
Well, now he officially gets the job. It's been no mystery that since his stunning arrival in the 2002 post-season that Francisco (known in some corners as "K-Rod") has been the best reliever on the Angels. His stuff is electric. He appears to have the "make-up." And now he has the job. I'm going to level with you. Matt kind of has a non-sexual crush on the guy. Looking at his numbers, I think that you'll see why. Francisco has the markings of the next Rivera. And if he really is only 23 years old, we could be watching him work for a long time...

One note about his stats, the 12/19 saves/opportunities is misleading. That's the pain of being a set up man and letting someone else finish your work. There is no reason not to think that Francisco will be one of the top 5 closers in the game this year and for years to come.

Oakland Athletics - Octavio Dotel (2004 stats w/ Hou and Oak: 3.69 ERA, 85.1 IP, 36 SV, 122 K)
Dotel lives and dies by his fastball. You've probably heard that before. The question that Billy Beane will be asking this year is whether he'll live more or die more. It's hard to put a finger on exactly what happened last year. In 2001-2003, Dotel never had an ERA above 2.66. His strikout rate fell slightly each year, but not at an alarming rate. Then in 2004, his K rate went back up to a fantasic ratio. But the ERA went way, way up (for him). One number that jumps out is homers (13 last year, after never having more than 9). But let's guess it's not just homers. Maybe, just maybe, Dotel goes into Matt's file of pitchers who don't have the make up to be a closer. This much is certain. Billy Beane thinks (knows?) that closers can be replaced. If Dotel's first half looks like Arthur Rhodes's first half last year, expect to see someone else in Oakland. The same is true if Dotel looks good but the team struggles. In those cases, expect either prospect Huston Street or Jairo Garcia will step in for the A's.

Seattle Mariners - Eddie Guardado (2004 stats: 2.78 ERA, 45.1 IP, 18/25 SV, 45 K)
Here's a little disclaimer about myself. I'm about 6'2". I weigh about 200 pounds. According to the Mariners press guide, "Everyday Eddie" is 6'0" and 205. Now I'm not the slimmest of guys. But I have a hunch that Everyday couldn't button my size 34 jeans. And I don't think it's because of the 2" difference in height either. Talk about a ballplayer and not an athlete...

Here's the deal, if the Mariners are better (have to be don't they?), Eddie will get chances. The question is whether he'll be healthy for them. As of 7/22/04, he was cruising along with a sub-2.00 ERA. Then three horrible appearances later and he was done for the year. They called it shoulder fatigue, but it was a torn rotator cuff. Then he had his knee cleaned. Now he's back this spring, and he tweeked his hammie. Apparently that has healed, and he should be ready to go. But for how long? Let's just say this, the list of fat pitchers who pitch well at age 35 (which he turns this season) is pretty short.

Texas Rangers - Francisco Cordero (2004 Stats: 2.13 ERA, 71.2 IP, 49/54 SV, 79 K)
If the Rangers were the most pleasant surprise of 2004, than Francisco Cordero had to be one of the most pleasant surprises of the most pleasant surprise. He'd shown flashes in 2003 and 2002, but it all really came together into a huge season in 2004. 49 saves was second in the AL, his ERA was outstanding, and he allowed but a single homer. Not bad considering that Texas plays in a hitter's park. There was no discernable reason to think that 2005 should be any different.
Then this spring, there was some tenderness in his shoulder. That was followed by a "tricky right elbow." Remember, that's the one that has the screw in it already. And suddenly, last year's sure thing is showing all the warning signs of a pitcher that is headed for a down year. And if that's the case, that Francisco question won't be that hard to answer after all.

Tsao placed on 15-day DL, Rocks Closer Job Wide Open

2005-04-01T10:16:00.000-06:00

The title says it all - nominal COL closer Chin-Hui Tsao has been placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to 3/25, due to his inflamed throwing shoulder. He's eligible to return on April 9.

In addition, manager Clint Hurdle has reportedly told everyone in the Rockies' bullpen that they'd all be getting ninth-inning chances. "It's going to be a great opportunity for everybody," said rookie Ryan "I'm not Justin" Speier, who will join the Rocks' bullpen after going 37/40 in save ops and winning the Rolaids' Minor League Relief Man award at AA Tulsa in 2004. "Everybody is going to get the ball, and we'll just see where everybody falls."

For those of you trying to keep tabs on the Colorado closing situation, it breaks down something like this. Tsao remains the frontrunner and nominal closer, but he's out at least another week, and probably longer. Brian Fuentes has a tiny bit of experience in the closer role, but he's the Rocks' best bullpen lefty and may have more value as their LOOGY.

Ryan Speier is the darkhorse candidate, and had an excellent spring. "BK" Kim will make his first couple of Coors appearances in middle relief, but has the most closer experience and the highest salary by a wide margin, and will also be given a shot at saves at some point.

Despite what Hurdle may have said, Allan Simpson, Javier "not Javy" Lopez, and Scott Dohrmann won't be getting too much 9th inning work, and Rule 5 pickup Marcos Carvajal almost certainly won't.

If your fantasy team is looking for saves from the Colorado bullpen, then you're probably in pretty bad shape anyway, and your guess is as good as ours at this point as to who will wind up in the COL closer role. My prediction at this point is that Fuentes will get the early save ops, and Kim and Tsao will each get some 9th inning work in late April. If the aforementioned three pitchers should all fail (...and my Magic 8-ball says "ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES"), then Speier will get a long look, and could lock down the job for good.

We'll keep you posted.

Joe Borowski's Wrist Healing More Quickly than Expected

2005-03-31T22:02:00.000-06:00

Carrie Muskat at Cubs.com has the most recent report on Joe Borowski's health, and the prognosis is good: apparently, the fracture in JoBo's wrist healed much more quickly than originally expected. If he continues to improve at this rate, he may begin throwing by April 15, rather than May 1.

Borowski stated that in "(t)wo out of three X-rays, you couldn't even find (the fracture)", and that in the third X-ray, "you had to know where you were looking and what you were looking for to see it."

It's been a long time on the DL for Borowski, and he seems to be incredibly eager to start closing games for the Cubs again. We'll keep you posted.

2005 Closer Preview Part 4 - NL Central

2005-03-31T12:57:00.000-06:00

MLB teams are making their final roster cuts and heading north, and we're entering the stretch run in our 2005 Closer Preview. Tom will cover the AL West tomorrow, and I'll report on the NL West on Saturday. We'll wrap it all up with the preseason Closer Power Rankings on Sunday - just in time for Opening Day on Monday.

Chicago Cubs – Joe Borowski (2004: 21 1/3 IP, 8.02 ERA, 9/11 SV, 17 K) v. LaTroy Hawkins (2004: 82 IP, 2.63 ERA, 25/34 SV, 69 K)
This one didn’t look like a closer battle two weeks ago – reports out of Cubs’ camp were that JoBo had regained his velocity and his job as the Cubs’ stopper, and that Hawk would be returning to the eighth inning, where he has always excelled. However, one misplayed comebacker has resulted in LaTroy retaining the closer role he held at the end of 2004, at least temporarily.

Hawkins was simply miserable in tough-save situations in 2004. He blew an astounding 9 saves, despite only holding on to the closer role for a little more than half the season. LaTroy Hawkins has been, to date, the prototype “can’t get it done in the 9th” pitcher. He’s been remarkable as a set-up man… one of the best in the majors. As a closer, he hasn’t gotten it done. Baker has indicated that Hawk has been working on some new pitches, and may be better prepared to close in 2004. He’d better be.

Meanwhile, Borowski, who was lights-out in 2002 and 2003, was simply “off” last season, in a big way. It was apparent in training camp, and it was obvious once the season started. His velocity was gone, and he was never overpowering to begin with. As a result, his “fastballs” were turning into line drives, and his nifty breaking stuff was either just missing, or getting pounded. One theory is that in attempting to regain his lost velocity, he was overthrowing and getting wild in the strike zone. It’s never good to be wild in the zone if your fastball tops out at 90 MPH.

In any case, it turned out that JoBo had a partially torn rotator cuff. He opted against surgery, but needed almost a year of rest and rehab. However, as we reported a couple weeks back, JoBo was looking good in Cactus League action… and his competitors for the closer role had all but handed him the job… when a line drive to the wrist opened up the closer competition again. Borowski will return in May, and he’ll resume battling Hawkins for the closer role.

(As a side note, after Hawkins lost his closer role to the rather rotund Everyday Eddie Guardado when both were with the Twins in 2002, a CT reader mercilessly heckled Hawkins from 10 feet away in the ChiSox bullpen - "Ha! You lost your closer job to Eddie Guardado! EDDIE GUARDADO, man!" - all while LaTroy was seated right next to Guardado. Good times. Uncomfortable, good times.)

Cincinnati Reds – Danny Graves (2004: 68 1/3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 41/50 SV, 40 K)
Danny Graves got off to a fantastic start in 2004, if you’re focusing on saves, anyway. He tallied 30 saves faster than any other pitcher in MLB history and had 33 at the break, but tailed off hard after the All-Star break, finishing with only 41 saves total. Granted, that had a lot to do with the Reds essentially giving up, but Graves helped too, with a staggering 7.23 ERA after the break.

Fortunately for Graves, his heir apparent, Ryan Wagner, flopped in his first MLB season and found himself back in AAA. Wagner has one of the best sliders in all of baseball, and it’s still considered to be only a matter of time before he deposes Graves as the Reds’ stopper.

Looking forward, Graves was recently quoted as saying that he was finally losing all of the bad pitching habits he’d picked up during his brief stint as a starter in 2003. Which begs several questions – first, why would he pick up bad habits as a starting pitcher? Second, why did it take a year to get rid of them? I guess I’m willing to believe what Graves has to say – after all, he was certainly awful as a starter.

Houston Astros – Brad Lidge (2004: 94 2/3 IP, 1.90 ERA, 29/33 SV, 157 K)
Brad Lidge is clearly the best closer in the NL Central, and he’s arguably the best closer in baseball. Without question, he’s among the elite relief pitchers in the game. (I’ll grant that, as a Notre Dame alum, I’m incredibly biased, but I don’t think that I’ll find much disagreement with my assessment.) His fastball tops out at 99 MPH, and bounces all over the place. His slider looks just like his fastball at first, and then breaks like a wiffleball.

In 2003, the Astros’ starters knew that if they could get the game into the 7th, Lidge-Dotel-Wagner would take care of the rest. Billy Wagner went to the Phillies prior to the 2004 season, but it was assumed that Miceli-Lidge-Dotel would be almost as dominant. Unfortunately, Dotel seemed to have a bit of trouble adjusting to the ninth inning. Enough trouble to make the Astros realize that Dotel was expendable, but not enough to diminish his trade value… he was the other “big name” in the deal that brought Carlos Beltran to Houston, which brought Houston to the brink of the NL Pennant.

During the Astros’ remarkable 36-10 run to finish the season, Lidge was simply dominant. (He had a 1.41 ERA after the break). In the playoffs, he was beyond dominant – he was practically superhuman. 7 postseason appearances, 12 1/3 IP, 1-0 W-L, 0.73 ERA, 3-3 SV, 20 K. All told, he threw a heck of a lot of innings in 2004, but there’s no reason to expect anything other than continued excellence from Lidge.

Milwaukee Brewers – Mike Adams (2004: 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 0/5 SV, 39 K)
Dan Kolb was dealt to Atlanta, so the Brew Crew will turn to another pitcher who had a poor second half in 2004. (4.71 ERA, .299 opp avg.) Well, granted, the entire Brewers franchise had a terrible second half to 2004, so Adams’ slightly-below-league-average performance in his rookie season was probably was good enough to earned him the 2005 closer role.

Adams has a mid-90’s fastball and a decent slider. If the Brewers are as improved as many pundits believe, he could rack up some saves. In fact, it was recently demonstrated that a mediocre reliever can rack up plenty of saves up in cheese country when no one’s watching.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Jose Mesa (2004: 29.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 43/48 SV, 37 K)
What can you say about Joey Table? Every season, he’s the last closer chosen in your fantasy draft. Almost every year, he puts up about 40 saves while striking out 3 people all year and allowing the tying run to reach base every time out. He was atrocious in 2003 – 6.52 ERA, 296 opp. avg… but he managed to decrease his ERA by over three runs in 2004, despite the fact that batters hit .291 against him. Go figure.

In Cleveland in the 1990’s, Mesa used to be a prototypical closer – great big intimidating guy, beating you with the high heat, scary goatee. That all came to a close with the 1997 World Series, when the Fish managed to beat him en route to the first of their two World Series championships. (And yes, as a Cubs fan, I’m more than bitter about that last stat.) From such great heights, Mesa has tumbled down to become what he is now – an average pitcher (who, admittedly, had a great 2004), who racks up saves for below-average teams. Still has the fastball, though – last season he was clocked at 97 MPH.

St. Louis Cardinals – Jason Isringhausen (2004: 75 1/3 IP, 2.87 ERA, 47/54 SV, 71 K)
(A brief interruption while I taunt our Mets’ fan readers.) Isringhausen. Pulsipher. Wilson. “Generation K”. Three great young arms. A couple of 200+ IP seasons in double-A ball. Three Tommy John surgeries.

Isringhausen has, obviously, rebounded from his misuse at the hands of the Mets, and once Billy Beane made him into a relief pitcher, he became a pretty good closer for the A’s, and now for the Cards. (UPDATE: We just learned that Izzy will be joined in the Cardinals' bullpen by none other than Bill Pulsipher! Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony. The Cards are now one pitcher away from a reunion. "Generation Y-2-K-5"?)

Izzy racked up one heck of a lot of saves (and chances) in 2004 – that number will probably come down a little bit, just based upon the law of regression to the mean. But, the Cardinals will be good, and so will Isringhausen. His fastball clocks in as high as 96 MPH, and moves quite a bit. Tom will question whether any 32 year old closer is worth three years and $25.75 million, but hey, it’s the Cardinals’ money.

Kim Heads to the Hills

2005-03-31T10:30:00.000-06:00

As Matt reported yesterday, BH Kim has been traded to the Rockies. I anticipate that Matt will be all over this when he previews the NL West. My guess is that when he's good, he'll be fine. A sinkerball pitcher has long been thought to be the antidote for Coors Field. But if his pitch won't come back down, balls will land far, far away.

The first interesting thing about the trade for me is hearing Theo Epstein flat out admit that he was wrong:

"We certainly made a mistake and I take responsibility for that," Theo Epstein said. "It's just a mystery what happened to this guy."

Kudos to you, Theo. And yes, it was a mistake. The second interesting thing is that Charles Johnson was included (for salary reasons) in the trade. Boston got him, paid him, and immediately cut him. The fact that only a handful of teams can afford to dump money in a hole this way is a big peave of mine...

Report from Kansas City Camp

2005-03-30T11:14:00.000-06:00

The grain of salt for this one is the size of a boulder, but...

Self-declared "Pitching Guru" Guy Hansen, who has be re-re-hired as Royals pitching coach, has worked with Jeremy Affeldt to make his delivery more compact. This, coupled with work to avoid the tipping of pitches (which Hansen feels was Affeldt's biggest problem) is supposed to make Affeldt a stronger closer. That's all well and good, but if the Royals aren't winning after 8 innings...

Also, I raise a single eyebrow anytime that someone refers to themself as a "guru." In any field. Ever.

Rockies set to acquire BK Kim

2005-03-30T09:57:00.000-06:00

It's not very often that you see a closer go from absolutely dominant to simply awful over the course of one pitch, but that seems to be what happened to Byun-Hyun Kim during the 2001 World Series. You can really divide Kim's career into two phases: pre-Jeter and post-Jeter. (Granted, he was still pretty good in 2002.) Apparently, the Rockies think that a change of scenery - to Coors Field, no less - is exactly what Kim needs to shake off the gopherballs. Hmmmm. In any case, they're reportedly set to acquire Kim, and may be thinking about letting him close.

In any case, the Rockies' closer situation is still somewhat of a mess. Chin-Hui Tsao was tenatively named the closer by manager Clint Hurdle, and promptly developed a sore shoulder. We should have his MRI results shortly, but the Rockies are obviously concerned. Brian Fuentes missed the first half of camp with a sore back, and has spent the rest of the spring getting rocked to the tune of a 10.29 ERA.

The Red Sox will reportedly pay $5.6M of Kim's $6M 2005 salary. The Red Sox may - may - be getting RHP Jason Young (COL's 2002 2nd round pick) back in the deal... and may even be getting Brian Fuentes. We'll keep you posted if and when this deal goes through.

(UPDATE: Reports indicate that this deal is only waiting on the OK from Boston's ownership group, probably because of the large amount of salary that they'll be eating. Also, more importantly, Chin Hui-Tsao's MRI revealed no structural damage - just rotator cuff tendinitis. He may be throwing in less than a week.)

2005 Closer Preview Part 3 - AL Central

2005-03-29T14:29:00.000-06:00

What to say about the AL Central Closers? Somehow we have 8 closers on 4 teams and 0 on the other. Just another day of mismanaged assets in the poorest division in baseball...

Chicago White Sox - Shingo Takatsu (2004: 62.1 IP, 2.31 ERA, 19/20 SV, 50 K) I will be plain about this: the White Sox have the right guy closing if you believe that your best reliever should pitch in the toughest situations and not necessarily the 9th inning. Clear?

If not, here's the deal...there was this group of nerds, er baseball fans, who developed sabermetrics. The theory being that math sucks the fun out of everything, but teaches insight. Or actually, people started looking at all of the stupid assuptions that "baseball men" had made about the game and testing the data to see what held water and what didn't. Some believe that the optimal use of a closer (presumably your best pitcher in the pen) is not necessarilly in the 9th when leading by 1-3 runs, but in the toughest situation (i.e. up by 1 in the 7th, runners on 2nd and 3rd, 1 out). That in mind, the White Sox unwittingly follow this logic.

Marte is the best pitcher in the pen. But because Kenny Williams (don't get me started on him) doesn't think that he has "closer mentality," the 9th Inning belongs to Takatsu. This leaves Marte available (hopefully) to pitch in the high-leverage situations. And thus, the dimness of the Sox management may just allow them to get it right. If, that is, you believe the eggheads...

Takatsu will be solid. I'd guess better than league average. Marte and Hermanson are there should anything go wrong, but I'm betting that the job is Takatsu's all year. My favorite thing about Takatsu? His nickname---Mr. Zero...that's just awesome.

Cleveland Indians - Bob Wickman (2004: 29.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 13/14 SV, 26 K) The Cleveland Indians blew 28 saves last year (tied for tops in the league), 21 by the All-Star Break. Read that again, chew on it, and it makes sense why some people are thinking that the Tribe are the logical choice to make a race of it with the Twins. I mean, they couldn't be that bad at saving games twice in a row could they? Could they?

Let's put it this way, Wickman's health is the key. Bob Wickman, the 36 year old man who eats like I do, must stay healthy and effective. When did that last happen? 2001. Now the good news is that Wickman is feeling fine. The bad news happens whenever that ends. Because David Riske, Bobby Howry, and Rafael Betancourt have had their chances. And those resaults are the reason that Bob Wickman is back. You could do worse than Wickman, but most teams won't.

Two fun trade notes about Wickman: 1) He was traded from the Sox to the Yankees in the trade that made Sax a Sox. 2) He was one of the relief pitchers that the Tribe acquired in their endless give-aways of offensive talent. If I have the order right, it went this, then this, then this, and then this for Wickman. I have an Indians-fan friend who still cries over the third this...

Detroit Tigers - Troy Percival (2004: 49.2 IP, 2.90 ERA, 33/38 SV, 33 K) Something will happen here. You mark my words. Somebody will be shipped out of Detroit by June. Detroit has the start of a nice young club. They got a top-tier slugger who has rebounded better than expected from injury. But there are still holes. And a three-headed fire breathing closer monster is a luxury that this team can't afford, can it?

The 2004 bullpen for the Bengals was awful. 28 blown saves (feel like you've heard that before?). Part of the mediocrity was Ugeth Urbina, who went 21/24 in save chances, but had a 4.50 ERA. Enter Troy. And Kyle Farnsworth (the best player EVER out of Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College, I assure you). And now the bullpen is back heavy. But the lineup is weak. So somebody has to go right? Uggie to the Cubs? Maybe...
As for now, Percival will be Percival. He has the stereotypical "closer-mentality." He looks like a closer coming in from the pen. He just got downsized when the LA Angels of Anaheim discovered that they had a younder, cheaper, better option (more to come on him in the future).

Kansas City Royals - Jeremy Affeldt (76.1 IP, 4.95 ERA, 13/17 SV, 49 K) Let me say that I like Affeldt. I think that he's good. Real good. I thought that he would be a dynamite starter. He had blister problems, but cured that (by removing half of one finger nail---not like Moises Alou). Last year when he started, though, something kept happening. Each game he would plow through the order. Then the second time around, the line drives would start. It only took two and a half months of this, and a half-dozen Joe Posnanski columns, before the Royals realized that Affeldt was made to be a closer.

So Affeldt is a good young closer on a bad young team. Well, a bad and young team at least. That makes him fun to watch, but I fear for his stat line on his baseball card. I'd put the over/under at 28 for save opportunities he gets. I'd put it at about the same for blowouts that he has to enter to get work.

Minnesota Twins - Joe Nathan (2004: 72.1 IP, 1.62 ERA, 44/47 SV, 89 K)
Here's the deal. If you're Matt, you HAVE to hate Joe Nathan. Joe Nathan is the reason that some people (including, gulp this author) think that closing isn't nearly the feat that others (including, gulp, Matt) make it out to be. Joe Nathan was a solid pitcher with the Giants. But he wasn't ROBB NENN. He wasn't THE CLOSER. He was a solid middle innings pitcher. He wasn't even a K-Rod-2002 or Rivera-1996, where you can see that he had the stuff and just needed the opportunity. He was just a good pitcher.

And then the Twins got him. They made him THE CLOSER. And then the magic happened. Now to be fair, Nathan's numbers are fantastic. It's not just that he got the three outs; he pitched really, really well. But wouldn't you feel that there was more to this closing thing if teams couldn't just pluck a non-descript pitcher off of someone's roster and turn him into THE CLOSER? I would. Maybe he is THE CLOSER, and I'm under-rating him. Maybe not. Either way, Matt has to hate Joe Nathan.

Where are my manners?

2005-03-29T12:20:00.000-06:00

Please allow myself to introduce... myself. You've probably been wondering exactly who this guy who has been prattling on about bullpens for the last two weeks is.

Like Tom, I'm a 29-year-old lawyer. Unlike Tom, I'm a Cubs fan. In fact, I'm the son of two Cubs fans, and grandson of 4 Cubs fans. I grew up in Iowa, and honestly, WGN probably played about as big a role in forming my Cubs allegiance as my parents did. I currently live in Chicago, and I'm holding out almost no hope that this is the Cubs' year. (Well, what do you expect, after they raise up a young boy's hopes... and then just crush 'em, like so many paper beer cups. Year after year after year....) Maybe if I lower my expectations I won't be so disconsolate when the team collapses like every Dusty Baker team ever, and my marriage will survive another baseball season.

Like most Cubs fans, I have no real problem with the White Sox. (That hatred seems to be a one-way street.) I do, however, cheer for the Minnesota Twins, which tends to enrage Sox fans. I was almost killed in a Wrigleyville bar after the Alou/Bartman/Gonzalez inning after a young lady told me that I was being "too negative" as the Marlins circled the bases, and I told her to "cram it". I pull for the Iowa Hawkeyes and especially, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, my two alma maters.

One of the main reasons for the existence of this blog is that I'm still not sure whether the "closer" position is worth it. I'm seriously conflicted. On the one hand, my Cubs once gave $6 million to Mel Rojas, because he'd managed to accumulate a decent amount of "saves" in Montreal's Stade Olympique in front of 700 fans. I've seen major league GMs assume that Antonio Alfonseca should be given the ball in pressure situations, and a massive salary, for no apparent reason other than the saves he accumulated in Florida in 2000. Can saves possibly be worth that much?

On the other hand, repeated ninth-inning meltdowns can destroy a baseball team like nothing else. Look at last year's Indians, or A's, or Cubs. Even noted closer-skeptic Billy Beane became a convert after watching Arthur Rhodes and Jim Mecir throw batting practice for two months.

Only 5 days left before Opening Day - and it's a great day for baseball here in Chicago.

Another Voice

2005-03-29T11:10:00.000-06:00

Greetings.

Matt, a friend of mine from school days gone by, has described his odd fetish with closers. The fact that he's such a big fan of the ones with scary facial hair and dunlap disease makes it only slightly worse.

I guess that you'd say that I'm here to be a voice of reason. Or, more likely, just another voice.

Disclosures:

I am a 29 year-old lawyer in Kansas City. I grew up in the suburbs of Chicago, the child of a Cubs-fan Father (who still has the Brickhouse call of Ernie's 500th on reel-to-reel tape) and Sox-fan Mother (who went to Sox park to oogle Pete Ward). Yes, I know that in some parts of the Loop that makes me an official half-breed. Always being a bit more like my mother, I became a Sox fan. The fact that he won the RoY as I was 7 cemented the allegience. My cat was named after him. I still hate Tito F'n Landrum. I curse Selig and Fehr for costing the Sox the 1994 World Series Championship. I still wonder who Bevo had pictures of to manage the club for so long. I rejoiced in 2000. I bemoan the mediocrity and the density of Kenny Williams and Ozzie Guillen. I still hold hope that this is our year.

I have a son who will be taught baseball and allegience, but not be made to be a Sox fan. I root for the Royals because it's harmless. I feel bad that two fantastic pitchers are being ruined by Dusty Baker. But I am glad that if their arms had to be abused that it happens while they pitch for the Cubs. I hate that across the country the phrase "the Sox" has been completely usurped by Boston.

I love the Hawkeyes and underdogs. I will root for an upset even if it ruins my bracket. I am a Democrat and a veteran of musical theatre. I believe that music was perfected in 1994. I actually liked all three of Kevin Costner's baseball movies. I don't think that the steroids controversy is much ado about nothing. I learned math from the back of baseball cards.

I look forward to discussing baseball pitchers with you. I'll be doing the AL Central Closer preview shortly. Probably another preview also. I suspect that Matt and I will banter about the value of closers in general and in specific. This may be too high a standard, but a likely pattern. Tell me when I'm wrong.

Tom

2005 Closer Preview Part 2 - AL East

2005-03-29T10:28:00.000-06:00

Sorry about the delay. In our second look at the projected closers around the league, we're focusing on the AL East - the glamour division, home of baseball's two juggernaut squads, a couple of also-rans, and MLB's "forgotten" franchise. Starting now, and going forward, spring training closer battles will be highlighted in red.

Baltimore Orioles - B.J. Ryan vs. Jorge Julio (Ryan 2004: 87 IP, 2.28 ERA, 3/4 SV, 122 K - Julio 2004: 69 IP, 4.57 ERA, 22/26 SV, 70 K)
The first real "closer controversy" of our preview. At at the time of this writing, it's looking like Ryan will be ending the controversy in short order. Jorge Julio has, for the last couple of seasons, acquired the reputation of a top-notch closer, based largely on the fact that he's been the incumbent, and the fact that basically anyone can put up 25-30 saves if they're left in the closer role for an entire season.

B.J. Ryan is a lefty, which is unusual, but not unheard of, for top closers. His out pitch is a devastating slider, which is simply one of the best in the bigs, but also he tallied plenty of Ks with his low-90s fastball. All told, Ryan struck out 122 men in only 87 innings - a stellar K/9 rate of 12.62.

Julio suffered a strained right forearm early in camp, which may have made this entire closer controversy moot. When he's healthy, he's got a world class 98 MPH 4-seam fastball... but that didn't stop Julio from posing ERAs of 4.38 and 4.57 ERA in 2003 and 2004, well off the pace he'd set with a sterling 2002 season (1.99 ERA). While Julio's K-rates have continued to climb, he's walking more batters each season, which has certainly contributed to his troubles.

Ryan started out slow this spring, posting a 9.64 ERA in his first 5 appearances. However, after 11 appearances, he's got the ERA down to 4.09. Julio missed a lot of time, but he's sparkled in his first 4 appearances, allowing zero runs and 2 hits over 4 innings, striking out 2 and walking none. Still, while there's been no official announcement, it looks like this job is Ryan's to lose.

Boston Red Sox - Keith Foulke (2004: 83 IP, 2.17 ERA, 32/39 SV, 79 K)
After the Sox' disastrous decision to go into 2003 with no closer (and believe me, we're going to be discussing that decision in great detail at some point), Theo Epstein opened up the BoSox massive wallets and brought in Foulke, who has been lights-out at times during his career - and decidedly less than lights-out at other times. You can't argue with the results, however - Foulke had a good year individually in 2004, and from what I've read, the Red Sox had a good season, too.

Foulke doesn't have much of a fastball... topping out at less than 90 MPH, its practically offspeed at times. But he gets outs. And one factor that makes Foulke more valuable than a standard-issue closer is that he's not afraid to go more than one inning, tallying 83 innings in 72 2004 appearances.

The two images of Foulke's 2004 that are indelibly burned into our minds - his 2 2/3 pressure-packed innings in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, with the entire country watching. And, of course, he was credited with an assist on the final out of the 2004 season, which counts for quite a bit in the hearts and minds of Red Sox Nation.

New York Yankees - Mariano Rivera (2004: 78 2/3 IP, 1.94 ERA, 53/57 SV, 66 K)
The prototype. Yankees fans breathe easier when Rivera enters a game, and fans of opposing teams see him in their nightmares. ESPN's Bill Simmons has famously compared Rivera to the scary, sour-faced female blackjack dealer that the pit boss sends over when everyone's winning a little too much, who proceeds to deal herself 15 consecutive 21s, and flops a 2 on top of every double-down attempt.

Rivera was every bit as sharp as you'd expect in 2004, even though his K-rate has slipped as he's gotten older. He's had some elbow bursitis this spring, but there's no reason to expect anything other than continued excellence from the last face you see before the Evil Empire wins again.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Danys Baez (2004: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 30/33 SV, 52 K)

Nobody ever talks about the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Well, I like them. They've done a heck of a job stockpiling and acquiring young talent, and if they were in the AL Central, we'd be calling them a team to watch. Instead, they get swept by NYY and BOS twice a year, the kids get demoralized and hit the wall in August, and Lou Pinella ends up looking as disgusted as Lou Brown in the dugout down the stretch.

You could say that a last-place team with a good closer is a little like a mule with a spinning wheel - no one knows how they got it, and danged if they know how to use it! (heh heh... mule.) But surprisingly enough, Baez racked up 30 saves in '04, in only 33 opportunities. His 25-for-35 season in 2003 got him run out of Cleveland, but Baez seems to have found a good situation in Tampa.

Toronto Blue Jays - Miguel Batista (2004: 198 2/3 IP, 4.80 ERA, 10 W, 13 L, 5/5 SV, 104 K as a starter)
This one's a little puzzling. The Blue Jays tried almost every rookie and retread in baseball as a closer last season (Aquilino Lopez, Terry Adams, Justin Speier, Kerry Ligtenberg, Terry Adams again), before catching lightning in a bottle with Jason Frasor. Frasor was 17 for 19 in save opportunities, but really hit the rookie wall down the stretch, getting rocked to the tune of a 6.39 ERA after the all-star break.

Enter Miguel Batista. Batista was more or less a failure in the Jays' rotation, but went 5-for-5 in save ops after taking the role from Frasor in September. (Granted, he also put up a 6.08 ERA and let batters hit .308 off him in the 2nd half, but who's counting, right?)

In the second half, Batista also allowed 92 hits and 40 walks in 72 innings... while striking out 31 men. This is not a recipe for success in the closer role. While Batista will start the season as the Jays' closer, I'd expect Jason Frasor to retake the job in short order. He's less likely to collapse down the stretch now that his rookie season is out of the way, and he simply has more to offer than Batista. If it's not Frasor, then Justin Speier will be the man. Either way, I wouldn't spend a high or mid-round pick on Batista. Seriously.

Eric Gagne Is Fine

2005-03-24T14:42:00.000-06:00

Eric Gagne, who has been sidelined with a sprained knee, threw a scoreless inning yesterday and made it clear that he'll be ready to go on Opening Day.

Gagne made his first appearance since the injury on Monday, 3/21, and was clearly bothered by the knee, hopping after each pitch. He looked fine yesterday, however, and later stated that "It was a lot better. I found my comfort zone." Gagne estimated that his knee was at approximately 75 percent.

Joe Borowski Sidelined With Broken Wrist

2005-03-22T08:55:00.000-06:00

Joe Borowski reportedly took a line drive to the wrist on his pitching hand, and will miss up to two months. We'll have more shortly.

UPDATE: 12:27 PM: Looks like it's a hairline fracture to JoBo's wrist, and he'll only miss 6 weeks. Which means that the Cubs will probably hold off on acquiring another closer via trade.

Chin-Hui Tsao Named Rockies Closer

2005-03-19T18:05:00.000-06:00

Well, that was quick. The Rockies announced today that Chin-Hui Tsao will be their closer to start the season.

He said he wanted to make a difference," Rockies pitching coach Bob Apodaca said. "He understood the ninth inning, the finality of it. He felt he wanted to be that guy, the pitcher that makes the difference."

Manager Clint Hurdle was less than adamant about the decision, noting that Tsao was the closer "to start the season", adding that "he's established the fastball. We know the velocity is there. He's got to find a way to maintain it from first pitch to last pitch of the inning -- the top-end velocity, not work into his velocity, which he has had a history of doing. We told him how important it is to put away the first hitter, being able to throw a secondary pitch the first pitch of an at-bat or behind in the count."

So Tsao is closing, with Fuentes setting him up. No word on who else will make the Rocks' bullpen, but this closer battle is, for the time being, over.

Colorado Closer Battle - Part 1

2005-03-17T23:51:00.000-06:00

No one knows who will be the closer in Colorado this year, now that the Shawn Chacon Experiment has mercifully been brought to a close. Obviously, you aren't going to want to draft the Rocks closer for your fantasy team under any circumstances - but because you can get pretty desperate for that 2nd closer in a deep NL-only league, we'll keep tabs on the situation.

At the official Rockies site, Thomas Harding has a story discussing the current "frontrunner", the young Chin Hui-Tsao. Tsao was signed out of Taiwan as an 18-year old, was going under the knife for TJ surgery by the time he was 20, and was back in the Show by age 22. Now, at the ripe old age of 24, he's being given every opportunity to lock down the closer role, despite pitching fewer than 10 innings in the majors in 2004.

So far, so good.

Through Thursday's spring games, Tsao was sporting a 1.80 ERA, with only one earned run allowed on 4 hits (and three walks) over 5 innings. He's also putting up some K's - 5 so far. He's been thrown directly into the fire, too - Harding notes that Tsao has been appearing early in each of his 5 appearances, in order to see as many major league hitters as possible.

While the Colorado closer situation is still the most "wide open" in the majors, If Tsao keeps this up, he could make manager Clint Hurdle's decision pretty easy. For what it's worth, Tsao's main competition for the closer role, Brian Fuentes and Eddie Gaillard, have struggled in the early going, with respective ERAs of 12.00 and 18.90 over about 3 innings each.

If it isn't Tsao, our money is on Brian Fuentes. After a fantastic 27-year old year in 2003, Fuentes took a step back in 2004:

Year W-L-S-IP---H--R--ER-BB-SO-ERA--ERA+
2003 3 3 4 75.3 64 24 23 34 82 2.75 173
2004 2 4 0 44.7 46 30 28 19 48 5.64 89

Fuentes' great 2003 gives him a bit more of a track record than Tsao, making him a safer pick. And even though he got knocked around last season, he still managed to strike out more than one batter per inning. Clint Hurdle certainly seemed impressed with Fuentes' last time out, when he pitched a perfect 9th vs. Arizona and recorded one strikeout:

"The ball just jumped out of his his hand... his off-speed stuff was just as good.That's the best he's looked all spring... He hasn't struggled dramatically by any means. His last outing was solid. This one jumped out at you a little bit."

Obviously, we're dealing with small sample sizes and spring statistics. However, based upon what we've read, it looks like Fuentes and Tsao are neck-and-neck for the closer role, with Hurdle potentially leaning toward Fuentes. We'll keep you posted.

Billy Koch Released by Jays

2005-03-17T12:20:00.000-06:00

OK, he wasn't really in the closer mix in TOR anyway, but the AP is reporting that Billy Koch has been released by the Toronto Blue Jays, who had just brought him back home with a 1-year, $900,000 deal in January.

It wasn't too long ago that the Blue Jays drafted Koch in the first round (4th overall in 1996). He shot up through their minor league system, and enjoyed some great years as the Jays closer. From 1999 through 2001, Koch racked up 100 saves - and after he was traded for Eric Hinske, he had his best season in Oakland in 2002: 44 saves, and an ERA+ of 142.

For some reason, however, he's been awful ever since. He's awfully reliant on his fastball, and it simply hasn't fooled anyone for the last 2 years. He was awful in his three Grapefruit League appearances, allowing 5 earned runs on 8 hits in only 3 innings of work - so awful, in fact, that the team that gave him his first chance - and his last chance - had to let him go.

Koch will turn 30 this season, and while he may probably catch on somewhere, his closing days are probably behind him for good.

Back to Borowski?

2005-03-16T23:37:00.000-06:00

A brief respite from our 2005 Closer Preview - we've got to discuss the closer battles while they're still happening, right?

Throughout the winter, it appeared to be a foregone conclusion that the Cubs would acquire a new closer for 2005. LaTroy Hawkins blew 9 saves in only a half-season in the closer role - a record pace - and Joe Borowski seemed to be completely out of gas.

While the Cubs' name came up in connection with essentially every free agent closer (Troy Percival, Armando Benitez), and some trade-bait closers (Jorge Julio, Dan Kolb, Ugueth Urbina), and while GM Jim Hendry repeatedly talked up Ryan Dempster for the closer role, Hendry ultimately opted to take no action, and enter 2005 with a bullpen long on fantastic young arms, but lacking an "established closer".

Or is it?

The allegedly washed-up Joe Borowski came into camp thinner, rested, allegedly throwing at his pre-injury velocity, and ready to reassume his role as the Cubs' stopper. As Rob Glowacki of The Cub Reporter pointed out today, Joe Borowski was simply fantastic in 2002 and 2003:

2002 2.73 ERA, 95.1 IP, 9.13 K/9, 3.35 K/BB, .678 OPS, .715 OPS vs RH, .626 vs LH
2003 2.63 ERA, 68.1 IP, 8.69 K/9, 3.47 K/BB, .554 OPS, .516 OPS vs RH, .609 vs LH

Wow. Now obviously, Borowski was never the prototype closer.
He doesn't blow the ball past hitters - he's gotten people out by putting the ball exactly where he'd planned to, especially with a nifty slider that he isn't afraid to throw when he's behind in the count. When he was put into the most pressure-packed situation in Cub history, in the immediate aftermath of the Bartman/Alou incident and with 100 years of history on his shoulders, Borowski immediately proceeded to get the inning-ending double-play ball. It's not his fault that things went downhill from there.

In 2004, it seemed that JoBo's luck had finally run out. We soon learned, however, that his troubles were injury-related - he'd damaged his rotator cuff.

Last week, Dusty Baker hinted that he'd already made up his mind about who the closer will be, but refused to let us in on the secret. Baker stated that "It's in my mind. It's not on my lips. It's been in my mind", but added that Borowski is "getting better every day".

While Rob Glowacki of the The Cub Reporter (which, to digress, has been the preeminent Cubs blog, so every Cub fan should read it, along with Cub Town) thinks that Dusty's loyalty will lead him to name Hawkins as his 2005 closer, I read the situation differently. Dusty Baker has long followed the theory that a player should not lose his job due to injury - to wit, Baker benched a white-hot Todd Walker in 2004 in favor of Mark Grudzielanek. If Borowski can get people out in spring 2005, there's no reason to think that Baker won't hand him the ball in the ninth inning going forward.

2005 Closer Preview - NL East

2005-03-16T14:07:00.000-06:00

This will be the first in an ongoing series of posts comprising the 2005 Closer Preview here on CT. Each column will examine the closers (or projected closers) in one MLB division.

Today, we'll look at the NL East. Tomorrow, we'll shine the spotlight on the stoppers in the AL East.

Atlanta Braves - Dan Kolb (2004: 57 1/3 IP, 2.98 ERA, 39/44 saves, 21 K)
The Braves enter the 2005 season with a major change at the end of the bullpen. Superstar closer John Smoltz has returned to the starting rotation from whence he came, which led the Braves to send wunderkind hurler Jose Capellan to the Brewers for a replacement. The Brewers, to their credit, noticed during the 2nd half of 2004 that a decent closer is useless when you're playing .300 ball, then noted that the best players in the organization are all approximately 20 years old, and made the right move in acquiring a hotshot prospect in exchange for their steady, productive closer.

Another fact that the Brewers may have noticed is that Kolb wasn't particularly great after the 2004 All-Star break. (1st half ERA 1.62... 2nd half ERA 4.88). Kolb changed up his style in '04, focusing more on hitting spots and less on blowing the ball past hitters - and his K-rate dropped pretty precipitously, from 8.5 in 2003 to 3.3 in 2004. It could be a fluke, but it is possible that the league adjusted to Kolb's new "junkball" repertoire in the 2nd half. However, if the past decade has taught us anything, it is that the Braves can straighten any pitcher out... and that the Braves typically don't trade young pitchers who can succeed in the Show. (Excepting Jason Schmidt, of course. David Nied, Bruce Chen, Terrell Wade, Micah Bowie, maybe Adam Wainwright... will Jose Capellan break the streak?)

Kolb will get the chance to protect plenty of leads, because the Braves always play winning baseball, no matter how much talent walks out the door, and no matter how many consecutive years I pick them to finish in 3rd place. This will, however, be Kolb's first chance to shine in the bright lights of a pennant race, and he's got some big shoes to fill. While it is almost certain that the Braves will see a substantial dropoff at the closer position, Kolb is likely to be an above-average stopper.

Florida Marlins - Guillermo Mota (2004: 96 2/3 IP, 3.07 ERA, 4/8 SV, 85 K)
Like the Braves, the Marlins enter 2005 with a new arm anchoring the pen. In 2004 Mota was a spectacular set-up man in LA (2.14 ERA), and a below-average set-up man in Florida during the 2nd half. (4.81 ERA).

While this will be Mota's first season as a primary closer, he does seem to have all the tools needed. He struck out 7.9 men per 9 innings last season, which isn't too shabby, and while he struggled after leaving Chavez Ravine, it's not as if Pro Player is a hitter's park.

On the other hand, he's turning 31 this season - and getting rocked in Pro Player doesn't do much to inspire confidence. Last year's 96-inning workload is worth noting, but it's probably not a problem - At 30, Mota is no spring chicken. If Mota should falter, the next man in line may be "Pulpo" - Antonio Alfonseca, who makes his triumphant return to Miami after a horrendous tour of duty in Chicago and a decent season in Atlanta. Alfonseca is probably best known for having six fingers on each hand. And no, it doesn't help him pitch.

New York Mets - Braden Looper (83 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 29/34 SV, 60 K)
We all remember that Looper was unceremoniously dumped from the closer role by the 2003 Marlins, and replaced with Ugueth Urbina - who proceeded to put up a 1.41 ERA, strike out about a man an inning, save two games of the World Series, and make out with Pudge Rodriguez afterwards. OK, that last bit was a little strange.

After the championship, Looper was cast off from the Marlins and became the Mets closer. Unexpectedly, he flourished under the bright lights of NYC, putting up a career year for an awful team. Looper's 2.70 ERA was the best of his career, and he racked up 29 saves for a team that only won 71 games. (Interestingly, he finished 60 games total.) Even his strikeouts were up, if only moderately.

Looper's hold on the closer role seems secure - the Mets don't have a ton of bullpen talent beating down the door. I guess that former closers Mike DeJean and Roberto Hernandez are in camp, but their best days are behind them. Scott Strickland and DeJean, along with Felix Heredia, will be counted on to get leads to Looper.

Philadelphia Phillies - Billy Wagner (2004: 48 1/3 IP, 2.42 ERA, 21/25 SV, 59 K)
Easily the top closer in the NL East, Billy Wagner was even effective in an injury-shortened 2004. Prior to straining his rotator cuff, Wagner was quite good... and he finished the year even stronger. His second half ERA was 0.51, with an opposing batting average of .136. All told, Wags allowed only 11 baserunners and 1 earned run in 17 2/3 2nd half innings.

If Wagner should find himself on the DL again, Tim Worrell will likely get the first shot at closing. The PHI bullpen will also feature phenom Ryan Madson, who excelled as a middle reliever and spot starter during his rookie season.

Washington Nationals - Chad Cordero (2004: 82 2/3 IP, 2.94 ERA, 14/18 SV, 83 K)
When he was finally handed the closer role at midseason of his first full year in the Show, Cordero fulfilled all of the lofty expectations that had been placed upon him. Chad is blessed with a fantastic fastball, and he struck out over a batter an inning.

While he walked 43 men in 82.6 innings, only 14 of those walks were during the second half, so it's possible that his control improved after he was handed the closer role. Frankly, while it's hard to believe that Rocky Biddle was allowed to fail for so long as the stopper, it cannot be argued that Frank Robinson has gotten the results he wanted while guiding Cordero's development.

The Nats' bullpen features a couple of other "almost-closer" types - Luis Ayala briefly held the role for the Expos/Nats in 2004, and Antonio Osuna was once considered the closer for the ChiSox. However, there is no closer controversy here. In 2005, this job belongs to Chad Cordero.

Welcome to Closing Time.

2005-03-14T17:11:00.000-06:00

Hello, and welcome to Closing Time. This weblog will focus upon major league baseball's "Closers" - those relief pitchers responsible for getting the final three outs of close games.

Although today's top closers are highly paid household names, and an effective closer is considered to be a virtual requirement for any contending team, the concept of a "closer" is relatively new. As recently as the early 1980s, teams used their bullpens very differently - some would say, more effectively. In the 1970s, a top reliever like Goose Gossage would be used whenever the manager absolutely, positively needed some outs from the pen - whether that was the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning.

Today, the closer is almost exclusively used in save situations, and ONLY in save situations. As such, most teams find themselves trotting their top reliever out to protect 3-run leads with the bases empty in the 9th - while using a less-talented middle reliever to face an opposing slugger with 2 on, and 2 out in the 7th. It can be argued that the adoption of the "save" statistic has dramatically altered the decision-making process of every manager in the major leagues!

While the statisticians argue that a highly-paid, 9th-inning-only closer is an inefficient use of resources, (after all, if a guy can get outs in the 7th, he should be able to get them in the 9th, right?), the old-school scouting types disagree. As Yogi Berra noted, baseball is 90% mental, and the other half physical. It takes a pitcher with a special mental makeup to get the final three outs of a major league baseball game. Bullpens around the league are littered with pitchers who, rightly or wrongly, have acquired the reputation that they can't get outs in the ninth. For instance the Chicago Cubs' LaTroy Hawkins, who has excelled throughout his career as an 8th inning setup man, failed in spectacular fashion when promoted to closer in 2004.

The prototype closer is a frightening, towering beast of a man with a high 90's fastball and some sort of intimidating facial hair. (Goatees are preferred, but feel free to get creative.)

Over the course of the 2005 MLB season, Closing Time will keep a close watch on who is the last man out of the pen for each club, who is performing well - and whose closer roles may be in jeopardy. (That should come in handy for fantasy baseball owners hunting for saves.) We'll also run features about the greatest closers of all time, and the greatest seasons by relievers, and, well, anything else MLB related that comes along.

So stay tuned - our 2005 Closer Preview will be coming along shortly.