2005 Closer Preview - NL East

This will be the first in an ongoing series of posts comprising the 2005 Closer Preview here on CT. Each column will examine the closers (or projected closers) in one MLB division.

Today, we'll look at the NL East. Tomorrow, we'll shine the spotlight on the stoppers in the AL East.

Atlanta Braves - Dan Kolb (2004: 57 1/3 IP, 2.98 ERA, 39/44 saves, 21 K)
The Braves enter the 2005 season with a major change at the end of the bullpen. Superstar closer John Smoltz has returned to the starting rotation from whence he came, which led the Braves to send wunderkind hurler Jose Capellan to the Brewers for a replacement. The Brewers, to their credit, noticed during the 2nd half of 2004 that a decent closer is useless when you're playing .300 ball, then noted that the best players in the organization are all approximately 20 years old, and made the right move in acquiring a hotshot prospect in exchange for their steady, productive closer.

Another fact that the Brewers may have noticed is that Kolb wasn't particularly great after the 2004 All-Star break. (1st half ERA 1.62... 2nd half ERA 4.88). Kolb changed up his style in '04, focusing more on hitting spots and less on blowing the ball past hitters - and his K-rate dropped pretty precipitously, from 8.5 in 2003 to 3.3 in 2004. It could be a fluke, but it is possible that the league adjusted to Kolb's new "junkball" repertoire in the 2nd half. However, if the past decade has taught us anything, it is that the Braves can straighten any pitcher out... and that the Braves typically don't trade young pitchers who can succeed in the Show. (Excepting Jason Schmidt, of course. David Nied, Bruce Chen, Terrell Wade, Micah Bowie, maybe Adam Wainwright... will Jose Capellan break the streak?)

Kolb will get the chance to protect plenty of leads, because the Braves always play winning baseball, no matter how much talent walks out the door, and no matter how many consecutive years I pick them to finish in 3rd place. This will, however, be Kolb's first chance to shine in the bright lights of a pennant race, and he's got some big shoes to fill. While it is almost certain that the Braves will see a substantial dropoff at the closer position, Kolb is likely to be an above-average stopper.

Florida Marlins - Guillermo Mota (2004: 96 2/3 IP, 3.07 ERA, 4/8 SV, 85 K)
Like the Braves, the Marlins enter 2005 with a new arm anchoring the pen. In 2004 Mota was a spectacular set-up man in LA (2.14 ERA), and a below-average set-up man in Florida during the 2nd half. (4.81 ERA).

While this will be Mota's first season as a primary closer, he does seem to have all the tools needed. He struck out 7.9 men per 9 innings last season, which isn't too shabby, and while he struggled after leaving Chavez Ravine, it's not as if Pro Player is a hitter's park.

On the other hand, he's turning 31 this season - and getting rocked in Pro Player doesn't do much to inspire confidence. Last year's 96-inning workload is worth noting, but it's probably not a problem - At 30, Mota is no spring chicken. If Mota should falter, the next man in line may be "Pulpo" - Antonio Alfonseca, who makes his triumphant return to Miami after a horrendous tour of duty in Chicago and a decent season in Atlanta. Alfonseca is probably best known for having six fingers on each hand. And no, it doesn't help him pitch.

New York Mets - Braden Looper (83 1/3 IP, 2.70 ERA, 29/34 SV, 60 K)
We all remember that Looper was unceremoniously dumped from the closer role by the 2003 Marlins, and replaced with Ugueth Urbina - who proceeded to put up a 1.41 ERA, strike out about a man an inning, save two games of the World Series, and make out with Pudge Rodriguez afterwards. OK, that last bit was a little strange.

After the championship, Looper was cast off from the Marlins and became the Mets closer. Unexpectedly, he flourished under the bright lights of NYC, putting up a career year for an awful team. Looper's 2.70 ERA was the best of his career, and he racked up 29 saves for a team that only won 71 games. (Interestingly, he finished 60 games total.) Even his strikeouts were up, if only moderately.

Looper's hold on the closer role seems secure - the Mets don't have a ton of bullpen talent beating down the door. I guess that former closers Mike DeJean and Roberto Hernandez are in camp, but their best days are behind them. Scott Strickland and DeJean, along with Felix Heredia, will be counted on to get leads to Looper.

Philadelphia Phillies - Billy Wagner (2004: 48 1/3 IP, 2.42 ERA, 21/25 SV, 59 K)
Easily the top closer in the NL East, Billy Wagner was even effective in an injury-shortened 2004. Prior to straining his rotator cuff, Wagner was quite good... and he finished the year even stronger. His second half ERA was 0.51, with an opposing batting average of .136. All told, Wags allowed only 11 baserunners and 1 earned run in 17 2/3 2nd half innings.

If Wagner should find himself on the DL again, Tim Worrell will likely get the first shot at closing. The PHI bullpen will also feature phenom Ryan Madson, who excelled as a middle reliever and spot starter during his rookie season.

Washington Nationals - Chad Cordero (2004: 82 2/3 IP, 2.94 ERA, 14/18 SV, 83 K)
When he was finally handed the closer role at midseason of his first full year in the Show, Cordero fulfilled all of the lofty expectations that had been placed upon him. Chad is blessed with a fantastic fastball, and he struck out over a batter an inning.

While he walked 43 men in 82.6 innings, only 14 of those walks were during the second half, so it's possible that his control improved after he was handed the closer role. Frankly, while it's hard to believe that Rocky Biddle was allowed to fail for so long as the stopper, it cannot be argued that Frank Robinson has gotten the results he wanted while guiding Cordero's development.

The Nats' bullpen features a couple of other "almost-closer" types - Luis Ayala briefly held the role for the Expos/Nats in 2004, and Antonio Osuna was once considered the closer for the ChiSox. However, there is no closer controversy here. In 2005, this job belongs to Chad Cordero.