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Wednesday, September 14

Stretch Drive

It's been quite a while since we've updated - I've been compiling stats for an end-of-year feature, and Tom's got a new addition to the family to contend with. Besides, who wants to read a running tally of the previous night's blown saves?

We're prepping our first ever "Closer of the Year" feature, in order to recognize that there is more to the closer role than racking up 3-run saves. If we've learned one thing this year, it's that almost any moderately talented pitcher can enjoy some success in the closer role, but that a truly great shutdown closer is a remarkable asset, and can have a positive effect that ripples throughout an entire ballclub. Of course, the converse is also true.

In the meantime, there are a couple recent 9th-inning developments during these meaningless September games which could have a sizable effect on who gets the ball in the ninth inning next spring, and they need to be noted:

MESA OUT IN PITTSBURGH

Well, it finally happened. Jose Mesa has been ousted as the Bucs' closer. After years of trade rumors, improbable effectiveness, and general apathy during the times when Mr. Table has been ineffective ("Why make a change? No one is watching anyway..."), the Buccos finally decided to hand the ball to someone else in the 9th inning.

Now, if only they get some 9th-inning leads. They're working on that.

It looks like Salomon Torres will get the call, at least at first. Torres is probably best known for beaning Sammy Sosa and effectively ending Sosa's run as the best hitter in baseball. (Sosa returned a few weeks later with an "evil Sammy" goatee", then got busted for corking his bat, then mysteriously lost 40 pounds the next season, and then was run out of town.)

If Torres can't get it done, and there's no reason to believe that he will, they'll hand the ball to Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been Mesa's heir apparent for several years, but he's a lefty - relatively rare among closers - and Torres has been marginally more effective this season. Barring an acquisition, and this is Pittsburgh we're talking about, our money is on Gonzalez for 2006.

FARNSWORTH HAS ARRIVED IN ATLANTA

Kyle Farnsworth is the epitome of the "million dollar arm, ten cent head" pitcher. When he's on (2001 BAA-.217, 2003 BAA-.196), he is unhittable. When he's not (2002 BAA-.293, ERA 7.33!) he's throwing BP. The Cubs finally gave up on him after a mediocre-to-lousy 2004. (BAA-.260, ERA 4.74, fans punched with pitching hand = 1).

Leo Mazzone has shown, time and again, that he can mold any journeyman pitcher into a valuable asset. So it's not a big shock to see what he can do with a talent like Farnsworth.

(FANTASY TIP FOR '06 - Farnsworth with ATL, 2005: 6/6 SV, 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 21 K in 19 IP.)
Then again, perhaps Kyle Farnsworth is headed for a Saberhagen-esque "even-year/odd-year" Jekyll-and-Hyde career, and Mazzone will have to look elsewhere for his closer. But I doubt it.

KERRY WOOD WILL RETURN TO THE ROTATION. PROBABLY. FOR NOW.

During his month-long stint in the bullpen, Kerry Wood showed a tantalizing glimpse of the pitcher that he once was, and the closer that he may someday be. While his various injuries have limited his stamina and his effectiveness as a starter, Kerry was able to "turn the dial up to 11" as a 1-inning reliever, showing the 100-MPH heat and knee-buckling breaking stuff that he showed off as a pre-TJ surgery youngster. While facing the middle of the Cardinals' powerful lineup during an August game at Wrigley, Wood actually seemed to be grinning on the mound. For the first time in forever, he was destroying everyone he faced.

With the Cubs out of contention, management finally took the long overdue step of letting Kerry go under the knife- a shoulder "cleanup" surgery considered to be similar to what Matt Morris underwent last offseason. Kerry should be back to full strength by Spring Training, and plans to return to the rotation.

But this is Kerry Wood we're talking about here. Nagging injuries seem go with the territory. If, by some chance, Kerry's injury problems resurface during 2006, or if his stamina is not where it needs to be during Spring Training, you can rest assured that Kerry will immediately be placed in the closer role, and will enjoy immediate success in that role. When healthy, Wood is a good starter. Healthy or not, Wood would be an elite closer. A stopper. There is a moderate-to-good chance that we'll be seeing Kerry in the bullpen in 2006, and it is almost a certainty that he'll be a closer at some point in his career.

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