2005 Closer Preview Part 2 - AL East

Sorry about the delay. In our second look at the projected closers around the league, we're focusing on the AL East - the glamour division, home of baseball's two juggernaut squads, a couple of also-rans, and MLB's "forgotten" franchise. Starting now, and going forward, spring training closer battles will be highlighted in red.

Baltimore Orioles - B.J. Ryan vs. Jorge Julio (Ryan 2004: 87 IP, 2.28 ERA, 3/4 SV, 122 K - Julio 2004: 69 IP, 4.57 ERA, 22/26 SV, 70 K)
The first real "closer controversy" of our preview. At at the time of this writing, it's looking like Ryan will be ending the controversy in short order. Jorge Julio has, for the last couple of seasons, acquired the reputation of a top-notch closer, based largely on the fact that he's been the incumbent, and the fact that basically anyone can put up 25-30 saves if they're left in the closer role for an entire season.

B.J. Ryan is a lefty, which is unusual, but not unheard of, for top closers. His out pitch is a devastating slider, which is simply one of the best in the bigs, but also he tallied plenty of Ks with his low-90s fastball. All told, Ryan struck out 122 men in only 87 innings - a stellar K/9 rate of 12.62.

Julio suffered a strained right forearm early in camp, which may have made this entire closer controversy moot. When he's healthy, he's got a world class 98 MPH 4-seam fastball... but that didn't stop Julio from posing ERAs of 4.38 and 4.57 ERA in 2003 and 2004, well off the pace he'd set with a sterling 2002 season (1.99 ERA). While Julio's K-rates have continued to climb, he's walking more batters each season, which has certainly contributed to his troubles.

Ryan started out slow this spring, posting a 9.64 ERA in his first 5 appearances. However, after 11 appearances, he's got the ERA down to 4.09. Julio missed a lot of time, but he's sparkled in his first 4 appearances, allowing zero runs and 2 hits over 4 innings, striking out 2 and walking none. Still, while there's been no official announcement, it looks like this job is Ryan's to lose.

Boston Red Sox - Keith Foulke (2004: 83 IP, 2.17 ERA, 32/39 SV, 79 K)
After the Sox' disastrous decision to go into 2003 with no closer (and believe me, we're going to be discussing that decision in great detail at some point), Theo Epstein opened up the BoSox massive wallets and brought in Foulke, who has been lights-out at times during his career - and decidedly less than lights-out at other times. You can't argue with the results, however - Foulke had a good year individually in 2004, and from what I've read, the Red Sox had a good season, too.

Foulke doesn't have much of a fastball... topping out at less than 90 MPH, its practically offspeed at times. But he gets outs. And one factor that makes Foulke more valuable than a standard-issue closer is that he's not afraid to go more than one inning, tallying 83 innings in 72 2004 appearances.

The two images of Foulke's 2004 that are indelibly burned into our minds - his 2 2/3 pressure-packed innings in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, with the entire country watching. And, of course, he was credited with an assist on the final out of the 2004 season, which counts for quite a bit in the hearts and minds of Red Sox Nation.


New York Yankees - Mariano Rivera (2004: 78 2/3 IP, 1.94 ERA, 53/57 SV, 66 K)
The prototype. Yankees fans breathe easier when Rivera enters a game, and fans of opposing teams see him in their nightmares. ESPN's Bill Simmons has famously compared Rivera to the scary, sour-faced female blackjack dealer that the pit boss sends over when everyone's winning a little too much, who proceeds to deal herself 15 consecutive 21s, and flops a 2 on top of every double-down attempt.

Rivera was every bit as sharp as you'd expect in 2004, even though his K-rate has slipped as he's gotten older. He's had some elbow bursitis this spring, but there's no reason to expect anything other than continued excellence from the last face you see before the Evil Empire wins again.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Danys Baez (2004: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 30/33 SV, 52 K)

Nobody ever talks about the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Well, I like them. They've done a heck of a job stockpiling and acquiring young talent, and if they were in the AL Central, we'd be calling them a team to watch. Instead, they get swept by NYY and BOS twice a year, the kids get demoralized and hit the wall in August, and Lou Pinella ends up looking as disgusted as Lou Brown in the dugout down the stretch.

You could say that a last-place team with a good closer is a little like a mule with a spinning wheel - no one knows how they got it, and danged if they know how to use it! (heh heh... mule.) But surprisingly enough, Baez racked up 30 saves in '04, in only 33 opportunities. His 25-for-35 season in 2003 got him run out of Cleveland, but Baez seems to have found a good situation in Tampa.


Toronto Blue Jays - Miguel Batista (2004: 198 2/3 IP, 4.80 ERA, 10 W, 13 L, 5/5 SV, 104 K as a starter)
This one's a little puzzling. The Blue Jays tried almost every rookie and retread in baseball as a closer last season (Aquilino Lopez, Terry Adams, Justin Speier, Kerry Ligtenberg, Terry Adams again), before catching lightning in a bottle with Jason Frasor. Frasor was 17 for 19 in save opportunities, but really hit the rookie wall down the stretch, getting rocked to the tune of a 6.39 ERA after the all-star break.

Enter Miguel Batista. Batista was more or less a failure in the Jays' rotation, but went 5-for-5 in save ops after taking the role from Frasor in September. (Granted, he also put up a 6.08 ERA and let batters hit .308 off him in the 2nd half, but who's counting, right?)

In the second half, Batista also allowed 92 hits and 40 walks in 72 innings... while striking out 31 men. This is not a recipe for success in the closer role. While Batista will start the season as the Jays' closer, I'd expect Jason Frasor to retake the job in short order. He's less likely to collapse down the stretch now that his rookie season is out of the way, and he simply has more to offer than Batista. If it's not Frasor, then Justin Speier will be the man. Either way, I wouldn't spend a high or mid-round pick on Batista. Seriously.