2005 Closer Preview Part 4 - NL Central

MLB teams are making their final roster cuts and heading north, and we're entering the stretch run in our 2005 Closer Preview. Tom will cover the AL West tomorrow, and I'll report on the NL West on Saturday. We'll wrap it all up with the preseason Closer Power Rankings on Sunday - just in time for Opening Day on Monday.

Chicago Cubs – Joe Borowski (2004: 21 1/3 IP, 8.02 ERA, 9/11 SV, 17 K) v. LaTroy Hawkins (2004: 82 IP, 2.63 ERA, 25/34 SV, 69 K)
This one didn’t look like a closer battle two weeks ago – reports out of Cubs’ camp were that JoBo had regained his velocity and his job as the Cubs’ stopper, and that Hawk would be returning to the eighth inning, where he has always excelled. However, one misplayed comebacker has resulted in LaTroy retaining the closer role he held at the end of 2004, at least temporarily.

Hawkins was simply miserable in tough-save situations in 2004. He blew an astounding 9 saves, despite only holding on to the closer role for a little more than half the season. LaTroy Hawkins has been, to date, the prototype “can’t get it done in the 9th” pitcher. He’s been remarkable as a set-up man… one of the best in the majors. As a closer, he hasn’t gotten it done. Baker has indicated that Hawk has been working on some new pitches, and may be better prepared to close in 2004. He’d better be.

Meanwhile, Borowski, who was lights-out in 2002 and 2003, was simply “off” last season, in a big way. It was apparent in training camp, and it was obvious once the season started. His velocity was gone, and he was never overpowering to begin with. As a result, his “fastballs” were turning into line drives, and his nifty breaking stuff was either just missing, or getting pounded. One theory is that in attempting to regain his lost velocity, he was overthrowing and getting wild in the strike zone. It’s never good to be wild in the zone if your fastball tops out at 90 MPH.

In any case, it turned out that JoBo had a partially torn rotator cuff. He opted against surgery, but needed almost a year of rest and rehab. However, as we reported a couple weeks back, JoBo was looking good in Cactus League action… and his competitors for the closer role had all but handed him the job… when a line drive to the wrist opened up the closer competition again. Borowski will return in May, and he’ll resume battling Hawkins for the closer role.

(As a side note, after Hawkins lost his closer role to the rather rotund Everyday Eddie Guardado when both were with the Twins in 2002, a CT reader mercilessly heckled Hawkins from 10 feet away in the ChiSox bullpen - "Ha! You lost your closer job to Eddie Guardado! EDDIE GUARDADO, man!" - all while LaTroy was seated right next to Guardado. Good times. Uncomfortable, good times.)

Cincinnati Reds – Danny Graves (2004: 68 1/3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 41/50 SV, 40 K)
Danny Graves got off to a fantastic start in 2004, if you’re focusing on saves, anyway. He tallied 30 saves faster than any other pitcher in MLB history and had 33 at the break, but tailed off hard after the All-Star break, finishing with only 41 saves total. Granted, that had a lot to do with the Reds essentially giving up, but Graves helped too, with a staggering 7.23 ERA after the break.

Fortunately for Graves, his heir apparent, Ryan Wagner, flopped in his first MLB season and found himself back in AAA. Wagner has one of the best sliders in all of baseball, and it’s still considered to be only a matter of time before he deposes Graves as the Reds’ stopper.

Looking forward, Graves was recently quoted as saying that he was finally losing all of the bad pitching habits he’d picked up during his brief stint as a starter in 2003. Which begs several questions – first, why would he pick up bad habits as a starting pitcher? Second, why did it take a year to get rid of them? I guess I’m willing to believe what Graves has to say – after all, he was certainly awful as a starter.

Houston Astros – Brad Lidge (2004: 94 2/3 IP, 1.90 ERA, 29/33 SV, 157 K)
Brad Lidge is clearly the best closer in the NL Central, and he’s arguably the best closer in baseball. Without question, he’s among the elite relief pitchers in the game. (I’ll grant that, as a Notre Dame alum, I’m incredibly biased, but I don’t think that I’ll find much disagreement with my assessment.) His fastball tops out at 99 MPH, and bounces all over the place. His slider looks just like his fastball at first, and then breaks like a wiffleball.

In 2003, the Astros’ starters knew that if they could get the game into the 7th, Lidge-Dotel-Wagner would take care of the rest. Billy Wagner went to the Phillies prior to the 2004 season, but it was assumed that Miceli-Lidge-Dotel would be almost as dominant. Unfortunately, Dotel seemed to have a bit of trouble adjusting to the ninth inning. Enough trouble to make the Astros realize that Dotel was expendable, but not enough to diminish his trade value… he was the other “big name” in the deal that brought Carlos Beltran to Houston, which brought Houston to the brink of the NL Pennant.

During the Astros’ remarkable 36-10 run to finish the season, Lidge was simply dominant. (He had a 1.41 ERA after the break). In the playoffs, he was beyond dominant – he was practically superhuman. 7 postseason appearances, 12 1/3 IP, 1-0 W-L, 0.73 ERA, 3-3 SV, 20 K. All told, he threw a heck of a lot of innings in 2004, but there’s no reason to expect anything other than continued excellence from Lidge.


Milwaukee Brewers – Mike Adams (2004: 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 0/5 SV, 39 K)
Dan Kolb was dealt to Atlanta, so the Brew Crew will turn to another pitcher who had a poor second half in 2004. (4.71 ERA, .299 opp avg.) Well, granted, the entire Brewers franchise had a terrible second half to 2004, so Adams’ slightly-below-league-average performance in his rookie season was probably was good enough to earned him the 2005 closer role.

Adams has a mid-90’s fastball and a decent slider. If the Brewers are as improved as many pundits believe, he could rack up some saves. In fact, it was recently demonstrated that a mediocre reliever can rack up plenty of saves up in cheese country when no one’s watching.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Jose Mesa (2004: 29.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 43/48 SV, 37 K)
What can you say about Joey Table? Every season, he’s the last closer chosen in your fantasy draft. Almost every year, he puts up about 40 saves while striking out 3 people all year and allowing the tying run to reach base every time out. He was atrocious in 2003 – 6.52 ERA, 296 opp. avg… but he managed to decrease his ERA by over three runs in 2004, despite the fact that batters hit .291 against him. Go figure.

In Cleveland in the 1990’s, Mesa used to be a prototypical closer – great big intimidating guy, beating you with the high heat, scary goatee. That all came to a close with the 1997 World Series, when the Fish managed to beat him en route to the first of their two World Series championships. (And yes, as a Cubs fan, I’m more than bitter about that last stat.) From such great heights, Mesa has tumbled down to become what he is now – an average pitcher (who, admittedly, had a great 2004), who racks up saves for below-average teams. Still has the fastball, though – last season he was clocked at 97 MPH.

St. Louis Cardinals – Jason Isringhausen (2004: 75 1/3 IP, 2.87 ERA, 47/54 SV, 71 K)
(A brief interruption while I taunt our Mets’ fan readers.) Isringhausen. Pulsipher. Wilson. “Generation K”. Three great young arms. A couple of 200+ IP seasons in double-A ball. Three Tommy John surgeries.

Isringhausen has, obviously, rebounded from his misuse at the hands of the Mets, and once Billy Beane made him into a relief pitcher, he became a pretty good closer for the A’s, and now for the Cards. (UPDATE: We just learned that Izzy will be joined in the Cardinals' bullpen by none other than Bill Pulsipher! Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony. The Cards are now one pitcher away from a reunion. "Generation Y-2-K-5"?)

Izzy racked up one heck of a lot of saves (and chances) in 2004 – that number will probably come down a little bit, just based upon the law of regression to the mean. But, the Cardinals will be good, and so will Isringhausen. His fastball clocks in as high as 96 MPH, and moves quite a bit. Tom will question whether any 32 year old closer is worth three years and $25.75 million, but hey, it’s the Cardinals’ money.