Eric Gagne to DL with Sprained Medial Collateral Ligament

Eric Gagne has been nicked up all spring. He missed two weeks with a knee injury, and while he's had some success after returning, (discussed on this very site, in fact) his velocity hasn't been what we've seen from him in the past - his fastball is topping out at 90, rather than 97 MPH.

Well, we may finally understand why. The Dodgers placed Eric Gagne on the 15-day DL today with a sprained right elbow - more specifically, a sprained medial collateral ligament. Ouch. (For those keeping score at home, that's the same ligament that Gagne had replaced in his 1997 Tommy John surgery.)

Gagne noted that he first felt the pain in the elbow while throwing a breaking pitch to the Mets' David Wright:

"I didn't feel it when I threw the pitch, I felt it when I let my arm down right after the pitch. It's my elbow and I had it before. I feared the worst. It was almost a relief when I got the results. I didn't think it would be that good... It's real frustrating. I wish it happened early in spring. I feel I let down the team."

The Dodgers insist that this latest setback is not related to Gagne's return from his recent knee injury, and GM Paul DePodesta notes that things could be worse, saying that "(t)here's no tear", and "(s)tructurally, he's in real good shape", but that's largely irrelevant for Dodger fans and Gagne fantasy owners. The sad facts are, Eric Gagne has a sprained ligament in his throwing elbow, and there is no timetable set for his return.

Closer Shake-Up in Arizona?

We've had Greg Aquino penciled in as the D-Backs' closer all spring - but as Steve Gilbert notes at the Diamondbacks' official site, Aquino has had some injury issues this spring that may have opened the door for Brandon Lyon to assume the closer role.

In his first appearance of the spring, Aquino suffered a strained flexor mass in his pitching elbow which put him on the shelf for two weeks. Since his return, Aquino has gotten knocked around pretty badly, to the tune of a 10.13 ERA over 5 1/3 innings. Granted, it's a small sample size, and yes, he struck out 8 men during those 5 1/3 innings, but still, a 10.13 ERA makes one wonder if he's OK, I guess.

D-Backs manager Bob Melvin discussed the team's apprehension with pitching Aquino on consecutive days:

"We want to feel good about him and I don't want to run him out there in a role that he's uncomfortable with, too... we want him to be confident. On Opening Day, we want our closer to have success and feel good about himself."

In the meantime, Brandon Lyon has been scary good all spring, allowing only 4 hits and 1 run over 12 innings, (a 0.75 ERA), while striking out 13 men and walking zero. (Plus, he's probably available on your fantasy league's waiver wire.)

If Lyon has some early success as closer, he may not relinquish the role, even after Aquino fully recovers from his injuries. Which would be ironic, because Aquino's success while filling in for the injured Jose Valverde and Matt Mantei is how he wound up with the job in the first place.

As always, we'll keep you posted.

Tsao placed on 15-day DL, Rocks Closer Job Wide Open

The title says it all - nominal COL closer Chin-Hui Tsao has been placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to 3/25, due to his inflamed throwing shoulder. He's eligible to return on April 9.

In addition, manager Clint Hurdle has reportedly told everyone in the Rockies' bullpen that they'd all be getting ninth-inning chances. "It's going to be a great opportunity for everybody," said rookie Ryan "I'm not Justin" Speier, who will join the Rocks' bullpen after going 37/40 in save ops and winning the Rolaids' Minor League Relief Man award at AA Tulsa in 2004. "Everybody is going to get the ball, and we'll just see where everybody falls."

For those of you trying to keep tabs on the Colorado closing situation, it breaks down something like this. Tsao remains the frontrunner and nominal closer, but he's out at least another week, and probably longer. Brian Fuentes has a tiny bit of experience in the closer role, but he's the Rocks' best bullpen lefty and may have more value as their LOOGY.

Ryan Speier is the darkhorse candidate, and had an excellent spring. "BK" Kim will make his first couple of Coors appearances in middle relief, but has the most closer experience and the highest salary by a wide margin, and will also be given a shot at saves at some point.

Despite what Hurdle may have said, Allan Simpson, Javier "not Javy" Lopez, and Scott Dohrmann won't be getting too much 9th inning work, and Rule 5 pickup Marcos Carvajal almost certainly won't.

If your fantasy team is looking for saves from the Colorado bullpen, then you're probably in pretty bad shape anyway, and your guess is as good as ours at this point as to who will wind up in the COL closer role. My prediction at this point is that Fuentes will get the early save ops, and Kim and Tsao will each get some 9th inning work in late April. If the aforementioned three pitchers should all fail (...and my Magic 8-ball says "ALL SIGNS POINT TO YES"), then Speier will get a long look, and could lock down the job for good.

We'll keep you posted.

Joe Borowski's Wrist Healing More Quickly than Expected

Carrie Muskat at Cubs.com has the most recent report on Joe Borowski's health, and the prognosis is good: apparently, the fracture in JoBo's wrist healed much more quickly than originally expected. If he continues to improve at this rate, he may begin throwing by April 15, rather than May 1.

Borowski stated that in "(t)wo out of three X-rays, you couldn't even find (the fracture)", and that in the third X-ray, "you had to know where you were looking and what you were looking for to see it."

It's been a long time on the DL for Borowski, and he seems to be incredibly eager to start closing games for the Cubs again. We'll keep you posted.

2005 Closer Preview Part 4 - NL Central

MLB teams are making their final roster cuts and heading north, and we're entering the stretch run in our 2005 Closer Preview. Tom will cover the AL West tomorrow, and I'll report on the NL West on Saturday. We'll wrap it all up with the preseason Closer Power Rankings on Sunday - just in time for Opening Day on Monday.

Chicago Cubs – Joe Borowski (2004: 21 1/3 IP, 8.02 ERA, 9/11 SV, 17 K) v. LaTroy Hawkins (2004: 82 IP, 2.63 ERA, 25/34 SV, 69 K)
This one didn’t look like a closer battle two weeks ago – reports out of Cubs’ camp were that JoBo had regained his velocity and his job as the Cubs’ stopper, and that Hawk would be returning to the eighth inning, where he has always excelled. However, one misplayed comebacker has resulted in LaTroy retaining the closer role he held at the end of 2004, at least temporarily.

Hawkins was simply miserable in tough-save situations in 2004. He blew an astounding 9 saves, despite only holding on to the closer role for a little more than half the season. LaTroy Hawkins has been, to date, the prototype “can’t get it done in the 9th” pitcher. He’s been remarkable as a set-up man… one of the best in the majors. As a closer, he hasn’t gotten it done. Baker has indicated that Hawk has been working on some new pitches, and may be better prepared to close in 2004. He’d better be.

Meanwhile, Borowski, who was lights-out in 2002 and 2003, was simply “off” last season, in a big way. It was apparent in training camp, and it was obvious once the season started. His velocity was gone, and he was never overpowering to begin with. As a result, his “fastballs” were turning into line drives, and his nifty breaking stuff was either just missing, or getting pounded. One theory is that in attempting to regain his lost velocity, he was overthrowing and getting wild in the strike zone. It’s never good to be wild in the zone if your fastball tops out at 90 MPH.

In any case, it turned out that JoBo had a partially torn rotator cuff. He opted against surgery, but needed almost a year of rest and rehab. However, as we reported a couple weeks back, JoBo was looking good in Cactus League action… and his competitors for the closer role had all but handed him the job… when a line drive to the wrist opened up the closer competition again. Borowski will return in May, and he’ll resume battling Hawkins for the closer role.

(As a side note, after Hawkins lost his closer role to the rather rotund Everyday Eddie Guardado when both were with the Twins in 2002, a CT reader mercilessly heckled Hawkins from 10 feet away in the ChiSox bullpen - "Ha! You lost your closer job to Eddie Guardado! EDDIE GUARDADO, man!" - all while LaTroy was seated right next to Guardado. Good times. Uncomfortable, good times.)

Cincinnati Reds – Danny Graves (2004: 68 1/3 IP, 3.95 ERA, 41/50 SV, 40 K)
Danny Graves got off to a fantastic start in 2004, if you’re focusing on saves, anyway. He tallied 30 saves faster than any other pitcher in MLB history and had 33 at the break, but tailed off hard after the All-Star break, finishing with only 41 saves total. Granted, that had a lot to do with the Reds essentially giving up, but Graves helped too, with a staggering 7.23 ERA after the break.

Fortunately for Graves, his heir apparent, Ryan Wagner, flopped in his first MLB season and found himself back in AAA. Wagner has one of the best sliders in all of baseball, and it’s still considered to be only a matter of time before he deposes Graves as the Reds’ stopper.

Looking forward, Graves was recently quoted as saying that he was finally losing all of the bad pitching habits he’d picked up during his brief stint as a starter in 2003. Which begs several questions – first, why would he pick up bad habits as a starting pitcher? Second, why did it take a year to get rid of them? I guess I’m willing to believe what Graves has to say – after all, he was certainly awful as a starter.

Houston Astros – Brad Lidge (2004: 94 2/3 IP, 1.90 ERA, 29/33 SV, 157 K)
Brad Lidge is clearly the best closer in the NL Central, and he’s arguably the best closer in baseball. Without question, he’s among the elite relief pitchers in the game. (I’ll grant that, as a Notre Dame alum, I’m incredibly biased, but I don’t think that I’ll find much disagreement with my assessment.) His fastball tops out at 99 MPH, and bounces all over the place. His slider looks just like his fastball at first, and then breaks like a wiffleball.

In 2003, the Astros’ starters knew that if they could get the game into the 7th, Lidge-Dotel-Wagner would take care of the rest. Billy Wagner went to the Phillies prior to the 2004 season, but it was assumed that Miceli-Lidge-Dotel would be almost as dominant. Unfortunately, Dotel seemed to have a bit of trouble adjusting to the ninth inning. Enough trouble to make the Astros realize that Dotel was expendable, but not enough to diminish his trade value… he was the other “big name” in the deal that brought Carlos Beltran to Houston, which brought Houston to the brink of the NL Pennant.

During the Astros’ remarkable 36-10 run to finish the season, Lidge was simply dominant. (He had a 1.41 ERA after the break). In the playoffs, he was beyond dominant – he was practically superhuman. 7 postseason appearances, 12 1/3 IP, 1-0 W-L, 0.73 ERA, 3-3 SV, 20 K. All told, he threw a heck of a lot of innings in 2004, but there’s no reason to expect anything other than continued excellence from Lidge.


Milwaukee Brewers – Mike Adams (2004: 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 0/5 SV, 39 K)
Dan Kolb was dealt to Atlanta, so the Brew Crew will turn to another pitcher who had a poor second half in 2004. (4.71 ERA, .299 opp avg.) Well, granted, the entire Brewers franchise had a terrible second half to 2004, so Adams’ slightly-below-league-average performance in his rookie season was probably was good enough to earned him the 2005 closer role.

Adams has a mid-90’s fastball and a decent slider. If the Brewers are as improved as many pundits believe, he could rack up some saves. In fact, it was recently demonstrated that a mediocre reliever can rack up plenty of saves up in cheese country when no one’s watching.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Jose Mesa (2004: 29.2 IP, 3.25 ERA, 43/48 SV, 37 K)
What can you say about Joey Table? Every season, he’s the last closer chosen in your fantasy draft. Almost every year, he puts up about 40 saves while striking out 3 people all year and allowing the tying run to reach base every time out. He was atrocious in 2003 – 6.52 ERA, 296 opp. avg… but he managed to decrease his ERA by over three runs in 2004, despite the fact that batters hit .291 against him. Go figure.

In Cleveland in the 1990’s, Mesa used to be a prototypical closer – great big intimidating guy, beating you with the high heat, scary goatee. That all came to a close with the 1997 World Series, when the Fish managed to beat him en route to the first of their two World Series championships. (And yes, as a Cubs fan, I’m more than bitter about that last stat.) From such great heights, Mesa has tumbled down to become what he is now – an average pitcher (who, admittedly, had a great 2004), who racks up saves for below-average teams. Still has the fastball, though – last season he was clocked at 97 MPH.

St. Louis Cardinals – Jason Isringhausen (2004: 75 1/3 IP, 2.87 ERA, 47/54 SV, 71 K)
(A brief interruption while I taunt our Mets’ fan readers.) Isringhausen. Pulsipher. Wilson. “Generation K”. Three great young arms. A couple of 200+ IP seasons in double-A ball. Three Tommy John surgeries.

Isringhausen has, obviously, rebounded from his misuse at the hands of the Mets, and once Billy Beane made him into a relief pitcher, he became a pretty good closer for the A’s, and now for the Cards. (UPDATE: We just learned that Izzy will be joined in the Cardinals' bullpen by none other than Bill Pulsipher! Fate, it seems, is not without a sense of irony. The Cards are now one pitcher away from a reunion. "Generation Y-2-K-5"?)

Izzy racked up one heck of a lot of saves (and chances) in 2004 – that number will probably come down a little bit, just based upon the law of regression to the mean. But, the Cardinals will be good, and so will Isringhausen. His fastball clocks in as high as 96 MPH, and moves quite a bit. Tom will question whether any 32 year old closer is worth three years and $25.75 million, but hey, it’s the Cardinals’ money.

Rockies set to acquire BK Kim

It's not very often that you see a closer go from absolutely dominant to simply awful over the course of one pitch, but that seems to be what happened to Byun-Hyun Kim during the 2001 World Series. You can really divide Kim's career into two phases: pre-Jeter and post-Jeter. (Granted, he was still pretty good in 2002.) Apparently, the Rockies think that a change of scenery - to Coors Field, no less - is exactly what Kim needs to shake off the gopherballs. Hmmmm. In any case, they're reportedly set to acquire Kim, and may be thinking about letting him close.

In any case, the Rockies' closer situation is still somewhat of a mess. Chin-Hui Tsao was tenatively named the closer by manager Clint Hurdle, and promptly developed a sore shoulder. We should have his MRI results shortly, but the Rockies are obviously concerned. Brian Fuentes missed the first half of camp with a sore back, and has spent the rest of the spring getting rocked to the tune of a 10.29 ERA.

The Red Sox will reportedly pay $5.6M of Kim's $6M 2005 salary. The Red Sox may - may - be getting RHP Jason Young (COL's 2002 2nd round pick) back in the deal... and may even be getting Brian Fuentes. We'll keep you posted if and when this deal goes through.

(UPDATE: Reports indicate that this deal is only waiting on the OK from Boston's ownership group, probably because of the large amount of salary that they'll be eating. Also, more importantly, Chin Hui-Tsao's MRI revealed no structural damage - just rotator cuff tendinitis. He may be throwing in less than a week.)

Where are my manners?

Please allow myself to introduce... myself. You've probably been wondering exactly who this guy who has been prattling on about bullpens for the last two weeks is.

Like Tom, I'm a 29-year-old lawyer. Unlike Tom, I'm a Cubs fan. In fact, I'm the son of two Cubs fans, and grandson of 4 Cubs fans. I grew up in Iowa, and honestly, WGN probably played about as big a role in forming my Cubs allegiance as my parents did. I currently live in Chicago, and I'm holding out almost no hope that this is the Cubs' year. (Well, what do you expect, after they raise up a young boy's hopes... and then just crush 'em, like so many paper beer cups. Year after year after year....) Maybe if I lower my expectations I won't be so disconsolate when the team collapses like every Dusty Baker team ever, and my marriage will survive another baseball season.

Like most Cubs fans, I have no real problem with the White Sox. (That hatred seems to be a one-way street.) I do, however, cheer for the Minnesota Twins, which tends to enrage Sox fans. I was almost killed in a Wrigleyville bar after the Alou/Bartman/Gonzalez inning after a young lady told me that I was being "too negative" as the Marlins circled the bases, and I told her to "cram it". I pull for the Iowa Hawkeyes and especially, the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, my two alma maters.

One of the main reasons for the existence of this blog is that I'm still not sure whether the "closer" position is worth it. I'm seriously conflicted. On the one hand, my Cubs once gave $6 million to Mel Rojas, because he'd managed to accumulate a decent amount of "saves" in Montreal's Stade Olympique in front of 700 fans. I've seen major league GMs assume that Antonio Alfonseca should be given the ball in pressure situations, and a massive salary, for no apparent reason other than the saves he accumulated in Florida in 2000. Can saves possibly be worth that much?

On the other hand, repeated ninth-inning meltdowns can destroy a baseball team like nothing else. Look at last year's Indians, or A's, or Cubs. Even noted closer-skeptic Billy Beane became a convert after watching Arthur Rhodes and Jim Mecir throw batting practice for two months.

Only 5 days left before Opening Day - and it's a great day for baseball here in Chicago.

2005 Closer Preview Part 2 - AL East

Sorry about the delay. In our second look at the projected closers around the league, we're focusing on the AL East - the glamour division, home of baseball's two juggernaut squads, a couple of also-rans, and MLB's "forgotten" franchise. Starting now, and going forward, spring training closer battles will be highlighted in red.

Baltimore Orioles - B.J. Ryan vs. Jorge Julio (Ryan 2004: 87 IP, 2.28 ERA, 3/4 SV, 122 K - Julio 2004: 69 IP, 4.57 ERA, 22/26 SV, 70 K)
The first real "closer controversy" of our preview. At at the time of this writing, it's looking like Ryan will be ending the controversy in short order. Jorge Julio has, for the last couple of seasons, acquired the reputation of a top-notch closer, based largely on the fact that he's been the incumbent, and the fact that basically anyone can put up 25-30 saves if they're left in the closer role for an entire season.

B.J. Ryan is a lefty, which is unusual, but not unheard of, for top closers. His out pitch is a devastating slider, which is simply one of the best in the bigs, but also he tallied plenty of Ks with his low-90s fastball. All told, Ryan struck out 122 men in only 87 innings - a stellar K/9 rate of 12.62.

Julio suffered a strained right forearm early in camp, which may have made this entire closer controversy moot. When he's healthy, he's got a world class 98 MPH 4-seam fastball... but that didn't stop Julio from posing ERAs of 4.38 and 4.57 ERA in 2003 and 2004, well off the pace he'd set with a sterling 2002 season (1.99 ERA). While Julio's K-rates have continued to climb, he's walking more batters each season, which has certainly contributed to his troubles.

Ryan started out slow this spring, posting a 9.64 ERA in his first 5 appearances. However, after 11 appearances, he's got the ERA down to 4.09. Julio missed a lot of time, but he's sparkled in his first 4 appearances, allowing zero runs and 2 hits over 4 innings, striking out 2 and walking none. Still, while there's been no official announcement, it looks like this job is Ryan's to lose.

Boston Red Sox - Keith Foulke (2004: 83 IP, 2.17 ERA, 32/39 SV, 79 K)
After the Sox' disastrous decision to go into 2003 with no closer (and believe me, we're going to be discussing that decision in great detail at some point), Theo Epstein opened up the BoSox massive wallets and brought in Foulke, who has been lights-out at times during his career - and decidedly less than lights-out at other times. You can't argue with the results, however - Foulke had a good year individually in 2004, and from what I've read, the Red Sox had a good season, too.

Foulke doesn't have much of a fastball... topping out at less than 90 MPH, its practically offspeed at times. But he gets outs. And one factor that makes Foulke more valuable than a standard-issue closer is that he's not afraid to go more than one inning, tallying 83 innings in 72 2004 appearances.

The two images of Foulke's 2004 that are indelibly burned into our minds - his 2 2/3 pressure-packed innings in Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, with the entire country watching. And, of course, he was credited with an assist on the final out of the 2004 season, which counts for quite a bit in the hearts and minds of Red Sox Nation.


New York Yankees - Mariano Rivera (2004: 78 2/3 IP, 1.94 ERA, 53/57 SV, 66 K)
The prototype. Yankees fans breathe easier when Rivera enters a game, and fans of opposing teams see him in their nightmares. ESPN's Bill Simmons has famously compared Rivera to the scary, sour-faced female blackjack dealer that the pit boss sends over when everyone's winning a little too much, who proceeds to deal herself 15 consecutive 21s, and flops a 2 on top of every double-down attempt.

Rivera was every bit as sharp as you'd expect in 2004, even though his K-rate has slipped as he's gotten older. He's had some elbow bursitis this spring, but there's no reason to expect anything other than continued excellence from the last face you see before the Evil Empire wins again.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Danys Baez (2004: 68 IP, 3.57 ERA, 30/33 SV, 52 K)

Nobody ever talks about the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. Well, I like them. They've done a heck of a job stockpiling and acquiring young talent, and if they were in the AL Central, we'd be calling them a team to watch. Instead, they get swept by NYY and BOS twice a year, the kids get demoralized and hit the wall in August, and Lou Pinella ends up looking as disgusted as Lou Brown in the dugout down the stretch.

You could say that a last-place team with a good closer is a little like a mule with a spinning wheel - no one knows how they got it, and danged if they know how to use it! (heh heh... mule.) But surprisingly enough, Baez racked up 30 saves in '04, in only 33 opportunities. His 25-for-35 season in 2003 got him run out of Cleveland, but Baez seems to have found a good situation in Tampa.


Toronto Blue Jays - Miguel Batista (2004: 198 2/3 IP, 4.80 ERA, 10 W, 13 L, 5/5 SV, 104 K as a starter)
This one's a little puzzling. The Blue Jays tried almost every rookie and retread in baseball as a closer last season (Aquilino Lopez, Terry Adams, Justin Speier, Kerry Ligtenberg, Terry Adams again), before catching lightning in a bottle with Jason Frasor. Frasor was 17 for 19 in save opportunities, but really hit the rookie wall down the stretch, getting rocked to the tune of a 6.39 ERA after the all-star break.

Enter Miguel Batista. Batista was more or less a failure in the Jays' rotation, but went 5-for-5 in save ops after taking the role from Frasor in September. (Granted, he also put up a 6.08 ERA and let batters hit .308 off him in the 2nd half, but who's counting, right?)

In the second half, Batista also allowed 92 hits and 40 walks in 72 innings... while striking out 31 men. This is not a recipe for success in the closer role. While Batista will start the season as the Jays' closer, I'd expect Jason Frasor to retake the job in short order. He's less likely to collapse down the stretch now that his rookie season is out of the way, and he simply has more to offer than Batista. If it's not Frasor, then Justin Speier will be the man. Either way, I wouldn't spend a high or mid-round pick on Batista. Seriously.