Graves's "Save"

Cincinnati closer Danny Graves was credited with his first save of the year on Thursday, in a game that the Reds won 6-1. While that fact is noteworthy in and of itself, it should also be noted that Graves faced only one batter, who he retired, for a grand total of
1/3 of an inning pitched. In fact, he only threw two pitches, total. So how can Graves earn a save in a game that he entered while the Reds led by five, with two outs in the ninth inning? At first glance, it just seems wrong.

Upon further review, it still looks ugly, and perhaps constitutes an improper application of baseball's save rule.

Obviously, we'll turn to check major league baseball's save rule (10.20) for an explanation. According to the rulebook, a pitcher is credited with a save when he records the final out of a game that his team wins (well, obviously), and in which he is not also the winning pitcher. (So sorry, Chad Cordero - you only get a win for yesterday's effort, not a win and a save.) In addition, the game-finishing pitcher must qualify under one of the following conditions:

(a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or

(b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces); or

(c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings.

Condition (a) is the save that we see the most often - the stopper comes out to start the 9th inning when his team leads by 3 or fewer runs, and slams the door. Condition (c) is relatively rare - you really only see it a handful of times a year. It typically involves a mop-up reliever finishing the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings of a blowout victory. Danny Graves' save falls under Condition (b) - but only arguably.

What isn't arguable is that Graves' performance against the Mets stretches the save definition to its very limit. David Weathers started the ninth inning for the Reds, and recorded two outs. He also gave up a hit and walked two men, loading the bases. The Reds were ahead by five. The bases were loaded (three potential runs), Graves faced the player at-bat (the fourth potential run), and the batter representing the fifth run - the potential tying run - was in the on-deck circle.

Even if we consider Condition (b), it is arguable that Graves should not have been awarded a save. Condition (b) of the save rule requires that the potential tying run is "one of the first two batsmen that (the finishing pitcher) faces." Obviously, Graves never faced the hitter representing the potential tying run... he never had to, because Weathers had already recorded two outs! Graves retired the only batter he faced, and the potential tying run was left in the on-deck circle.

While it is possible - but not certain - that Graves' Save falls under the letter of the save rule, this situation clearly does not fall within the spirit of the rule. It also serves to establish that a revision to the save rule is required - immediately - in order to bring the save rule into accordance with what its designers had originally intended.

If a pitcher enters a game for a "normal" (Condition (a)) save situation, there are zero outs and a maximum three-run lead. As such, the potential tying run is, at the very least, "in the hole" - due up third in the inning.

Simple logic indicates that if a pitcher enters a game with one out in the ninth inning, the tying run should have to be, at a minimum, on deck in order for the pitcher to qualify for a save. Following that same logic, if a pitcher enters a game with two outs in the ninth inning, the pitcher should not qualify for a save unless the batter representing the tying run is actually at the plate.

If Graves had given up a grand-slam homer to the batter he faced, he *still* could have qualified for the save, simply by retiring one of the next few hitters. While MLB has refined and revised the save rule throughout the years, today's events make it clear that an additional revision is most certainly required.

Ranking the Closers - "Preseason" Power Rankings.

Here is the first edition of our very own Closer Power Rankings - we'll refer to this as the "preseason" list, even though the season is a couple of days old, and even though some early returns have been quite ugly due to injury (Gagne), or ineffectiveness. (Rivera).

As you may expect, these rankings required a decent amount of debate - obviously, about where to rank the individual closers, but also about the very nature of the rankings themselves. Were we ranking the best projected fantasy performers for 2005? The pitchers with the best stuff, regardless of the strength of their team? Obviously, every closer's success is largely dependent upon the success of their team. If they don't get many save opportunities, they won't get many saves.

In the end, we've decided to tilt these rankings toward the "talent" end of the spectrum, while still considering the "team performance/save opportunities" factor to a lesser extent. (Two parts talent, one part team, more or less.)

If you're after an in-depth assessment of a given closer, just check out the Closer Previews published over the past couple weeks. We'll be updating these Rankings on a weekly basis. But for now, here they are:

1. Eric Gagne, Los Angeles Dodgers - Yes, he's hurt. That didn't stop him from getting ejected from yesterday's game, though!
2. Brad Lidge, Houston Astros - Simply unstoppable in the 2004 postseason.
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LA Angels - Finally getting his shot. He's got the repertoire.
4. Billy Wagner, Philadelphia Phillies - Healthy again, more or less.
5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees - Has blown 4 consecutive saves vs. Boston.
6. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins - Just got it done in 2004. Almost every time out.
7. Keith Foulke, Boston Red Sox - Somehow gets outs, despite a pedestrian fastball.
8. Armando Benitez, SF Giants - Declining K-Rates are a concern, despite an awesome 2004.
9. Trevor Hoffman, SD Padres - All-time great; Padres should be even more improved in '05.
10. Octavio Dotel, Oakland A's - He's got the stuff. He'll get the chances. He just needs to bring it all together.
11. Francisco Cordero, Texas Rangers - Injuries are a concern. Production is not.
12. Jason Isringhausen, STL Cardinals - Steady production, best lineup in the NL.
13. Troy Percival, Detroit Tigers - Urbina wants his job back. Injuries are always a concern.
14. Dan Kolb, Atlanta Braves - We'll see how he performs when people are watching.
15. Chad Cordero, Washington Nats - It's just a matter of time before he makes the Top 10.
16. Shingo Takatsu, Chicago White Sox - Mr. Zero got a tough save on Opening Day.
17. Braden Looper, NY Mets - Absolutely roughed up on Opening Day. Must turn it around.
18. Jeremy Affeldt, KC Royals - Great stuff, and the blister problems may be over. Lousy team.
19. Eddie Guardado, Seattle Mariners - Joe Nathan showed how easy it was to succeed in MIN.
20. B.J. Ryan, Baltimore Orioles - Fantastic stuff. Could shoot up this list in a hurry.
21. Guillermo Mota, Florida Marlins - Mota must show that his skills translate to the 9th.
22. LaTroy Hawkins, Chicago Cubs - With JoBo healing faster than expected, may be headed back to the 8th inning, where he excels.
23. Danny Graves, Cincinnati Reds - Horrendous in 2004's 2nd half. If it's not a hot seat yet, it's certainly getting warm.
24. Danys Baez, TB Devil Rays - Great 2004 may be an aberration. Rough division for an up-and-coming team.
25. Jose Mesa, Pittsburgh Pirates - There is no explanation for his 2004 success. And yet, he continued to get it done.
26. Bob Wickman, Cleveland Indians - Injuries, production, age, conditioning. Where to start?
27. Brandon Lyon, Arizona D-Backs - Great stuff, returning from injury.
28. Mike Adams, Milwaukee Brewers - If Kolb can be successful in MIL, why not Adams?
29. Miguel Batista, Toronto Blue Jays - This has disaster written all over it.
30. Unknown Colorado Reliever, Colorado Rockies - Tsao, Kim, or "Other"... they all have to pitch in Coors.

2005 Closer Preview Part 6 - NL West

At long last, the conclusion of our 2005 Closer Preview. This entry takes a look at the NL West, home of one of the greatest closers of all time, the most dominating closer of recent memory, and a couple of bullpens that look pretty brutal. Starting with the latter:

Arizona Diamondbacks – Brandon Lyon (2003: 59 IP, 4.12 ERA, 9/12 SV, 50 K)
If you’re like us, you probably didn’t even notice this closer battle. In fact, you probably picked up Greg Aquino in the late rounds of your draft, figured that you could tuck him away as your 2nd or 3rd closer, and promptly forgot about the entire Arizona bullpen.

Well, as we noted a couple days back, Aquino has been busted up all spring, and when he has pitched, he’s gotten rocked. In the meantime, Brandon Lyon has been lights-out. The winner of this closer battle was apparent on Opening Day, when Aquino entered in the 5th inning, while the D-Backs were getting routed, and proceeded to give up 4 earned runs. So for now, the closer is definitely Brandon Lyon. Lyon missed the entire 2004 campaign to injury, but picked up 9 saves in that mess of a Boston bullpen in 2003. He's looked great all spring, and may hold on to the job for the long term.

Colorado Rockies – Chin-Hui Tsao v. Byung-Hyun Kim v. Everyone else in the Bullpen
The Rockies have cornered the market on hyphenated Korean closers, which is sweet. But at the moment, it really looks like Kim is just washed up. He has mysteriously lost his fastball, and has had absolutely no success of any kind since the 2002 season. The Rockies had hopes that a change of scenery would bring back the dominant Kim of just 3 seasons ago, but the Rockies’ first impression of Kim wasn’t great – 9 batters faced and 8 earned runs, one hitter retired. On the other hand, he pitched a scoreless inning in his second outing.

Tsao is currently on the disabled list with shoulder stiffness. He’s been named the closer, but he’s never played that role in the past. He’s eligible to come off the DL next Saturday. In the meantime, Brian Fuentes will probably close out any leads that the Rocks manage to hold late.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Eric Gagne (2004: 82 1/3 IP, 2.19 ERA, 45/47 SV, 114 K)
Gagne starts the year at #1 on our Closer Rankings, which says something about the dominance that Gagne has displayed over the past three seasons. The man converted 84 consecutive save chances. He also starts the year on the disabled list with a sore elbow, which is certainly a major problem.

Reached for comment, Gagne indicated that his stay on the 15-day DL may be a bit longer than 15 days, and indicated that he wouldn’t rush back and risk reinjury:

“We know it's not major. Dr. Jobe said it's one of the cleanest elbows for a
pitcher. I won't rush back. They said 15 days at least. I don't think it will be
more than two weeks. But they told me the knee would take six weeks and I
thought I'd be fine in a week. It's been five weeks. So I'm not saying if it's
two weeks or longer. I really don't know.”

If Gagne is performing at 100%, he’s the best in the business. If the elbow turns out to be serious – well, closing can be a brutal business, and even the top closers can fall from grace relatively quickly. For now, we’re going to assume the best, and hope that Gagne is back to closing out games in dominating fashion by May. In the meantime, Yhancy Brazoban will handle the ninth.

San Diego Padres – Trevor Hoffman (2004: 54 2/3 IP, 2.31 ERA, 41/45 SV, 53 K)

Still the one.

It’s been eleven years of ringin’ Hell’s Bells in San Diego, and Trevor Hoffman showed in 2004 that he still had it. After his 2003 season was lost to injury, he closed out 41 games with a 2.30 ERA last year.

Hoffman is currently #3 on the all-time career saves leaderboard with 393. With a good 2005 season, he’ll pass John Franco (424), and if he returns for 2006, has an outside chance at catching all-time leader Lee Smith (478), or at least getting close enough to pass him by early 2007. Then again, he just turned 37. Lee Smith’s record may be safe for a while.

San Francisco Giants – Armando Benitez (2004: 69 2/3 IP, 1.29 ERA, 47/51 SV, 62 K)
It's the same old story. You blow a couple of playoff games in New York, and the next thing you know you're left for dead, shipped out of town, and when you wake up, you're in Miami.

Benitez wasn’t horrible with the Mets in ’03, but he’d earned a reputation as a pitcher who can’t lock down the big game. And so, he was shipped to Seattle, and then back to the Bronx as a mercenary arm for the Yanks before landing in Miami for the 2004 season. And what a season he had.

Last year, Benitez was simply fantastic, finishing off 47 of 51 save chances while allowing a 1.29 ERA. However, his strikeouts fell off quite a bit, which indicated the continuation of a troubling trend. Benitez struck out 14.77 batters per 9 innings in 1999, his first season with the Mets – and 12.55, 10.97, 10.56, and 9.25 K/9 over the next 4 seasons. Last year, his K/9 rate fell below 9 for the first time in his career – all the way to 8.01. Fortunately, he cut his walks from 41 to 21 last season, too.

Rod Beck once said that as a closer gets older, all the talent runs out of their arm and up into their head. If Benitez is going to continue his dominance as his K-rates dwindle, he may have to start outsmarting hitters, rather than blowing them away.

That being said, I wouldn’t bet against him just yet.