Trevor Hoffman - Possible Saves Leader, but a Hall of Famer?

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 431st career save tonight, (his 38th of 2005), leaving Hoffman a mere 47 saves behind the all-time career leader, Lee Smith.

Trevor is 37 years old this season. However, he has continued to be an effective closer in his 37-year-old season, and while his peripheral stats have slipped across the board from his stellar 2004, he is still holding opposing hitters to a .234 batting average, while posting a 3.14 ERA and striking out just over a batter an inning.

It seems like a lock that Hoffman will return for at least the 2006 season, in order to make a run at Smith's career saves mark. (He'd probably be approaching the career saves record as we speak, if he hadn't missed most of the 2003 season with an injury.)

Obviously, the "closer" position is relatively new, and as such, relief specialists are dramatically underrepresented in the Hall of Fame - especially when one considers the notoriety that the earliest elite closers, such as Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter, gained in the late 1970s and early 1980s. While Gossage and Sutter will, in all likelihood, gain access to the Hall of Fame in short order, (which will be the subject of an upcoming column), it is unlikely that Hoffman will have to put up with the years of waiting that his predecessors experienced.

There are currently three pitchers who can be considered "closers" in the Hall of Fame - Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, and Dennis Eckersley. Wilhelm was the original relief specialist - a knuckleballer who pitched until he was 49, and who should be the namesake of an award recognizing baseball's top closer. Eckersley, of course, enjoyed considerable success as a starter, notching a 20-win season and 197 total wins, which helped his Hall bid. Moreover, both Eckersley and Fingers put up a massively dominant Cy Young + MVP season, which Hall voters certainly remembered.

Trevor Hoffman will end his career with no Cy Young awards, and no MVP trophies. Moreover, being the career saves leader hasn't helped Lee Smith into the Hall of Fame, and Smith's induction appears less likely by the year. However, we're confident that Hoffman will be inducted within three years of appearing on the ballot, for a number of reasons. First, and most obviously, Hoffman will have tallied his save total in far fewer seasons (probably 11 and change) than Smith (18 seasons). Equally importantly, Trevor Hoffman played the vast majority of his career with one franchise - San Diego - and became the face of that franchise, while Smith, through no fault of his own, played for 8 franchises during his career.

Mark it down - Trevor Hoffman will be elected to the Hall of Fame, along with at least one of his contemporaries, Mariano Rivera. Hall of Fame voters have long resisted the induction of relief specialists, but the tide will start to turn with the next round of balloting, in which Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage - and maybe only Sutter and Gossage - will be elected.

Stretch Drive

It's been quite a while since we've updated - I've been compiling stats for an end-of-year feature, and Tom's got a new addition to the family to contend with. Besides, who wants to read a running tally of the previous night's blown saves?

We're prepping our first ever "Closer of the Year" feature, in order to recognize that there is more to the closer role than racking up 3-run saves. If we've learned one thing this year, it's that almost any moderately talented pitcher can enjoy some success in the closer role, but that a truly great shutdown closer is a remarkable asset, and can have a positive effect that ripples throughout an entire ballclub. Of course, the converse is also true.

In the meantime, there are a couple recent 9th-inning developments during these meaningless September games which could have a sizable effect on who gets the ball in the ninth inning next spring, and they need to be noted:

MESA OUT IN PITTSBURGH

Well, it finally happened. Jose Mesa has been ousted as the Bucs' closer. After years of trade rumors, improbable effectiveness, and general apathy during the times when Mr. Table has been ineffective ("Why make a change? No one is watching anyway..."), the Buccos finally decided to hand the ball to someone else in the 9th inning.

Now, if only they get some 9th-inning leads. They're working on that.

It looks like Salomon Torres will get the call, at least at first. Torres is probably best known for beaning Sammy Sosa and effectively ending Sosa's run as the best hitter in baseball. (Sosa returned a few weeks later with an "evil Sammy" goatee", then got busted for corking his bat, then mysteriously lost 40 pounds the next season, and then was run out of town.)

If Torres can't get it done, and there's no reason to believe that he will, they'll hand the ball to Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been Mesa's heir apparent for several years, but he's a lefty - relatively rare among closers - and Torres has been marginally more effective this season. Barring an acquisition, and this is Pittsburgh we're talking about, our money is on Gonzalez for 2006.

FARNSWORTH HAS ARRIVED IN ATLANTA

Kyle Farnsworth is the epitome of the "million dollar arm, ten cent head" pitcher. When he's on (2001 BAA-.217, 2003 BAA-.196), he is unhittable. When he's not (2002 BAA-.293, ERA 7.33!) he's throwing BP. The Cubs finally gave up on him after a mediocre-to-lousy 2004. (BAA-.260, ERA 4.74, fans punched with pitching hand = 1).

Leo Mazzone has shown, time and again, that he can mold any journeyman pitcher into a valuable asset. So it's not a big shock to see what he can do with a talent like Farnsworth.

(FANTASY TIP FOR '06 - Farnsworth with ATL, 2005: 6/6 SV, 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 21 K in 19 IP.)

Then again, perhaps Kyle Farnsworth is headed for a Saberhagen-esque "even-year/odd-year" Jekyll-and-Hyde career, and Mazzone will have to look elsewhere for his closer. But I doubt it.

KERRY WOOD WILL RETURN TO THE ROTATION. PROBABLY. FOR NOW.

During his month-long stint in the bullpen, Kerry Wood showed a tantalizing glimpse of the pitcher that he once was, and the closer that he may someday be. While his various injuries have limited his stamina and his effectiveness as a starter, Kerry was able to "turn the dial up to 11" as a 1-inning reliever, showing the 100-MPH heat and knee-buckling breaking stuff that he showed off as a pre-TJ surgery youngster. While facing the middle of the Cardinals' powerful lineup during an August game at Wrigley, Wood actually seemed to be grinning on the mound. For the first time in forever, he was destroying everyone he faced.

With the Cubs out of contention, management finally took the long overdue step of letting Kerry go under the knife- a shoulder "cleanup" surgery considered to be similar to what Matt Morris underwent last offseason. Kerry should be back to full strength by Spring Training, and plans to return to the rotation.

But this is Kerry Wood we're talking about here. Nagging injuries seem go with the territory. If, by some chance, Kerry's injury problems resurface during 2006, or if his stamina is not where it needs to be during Spring Training, you can rest assured that Kerry will immediately be placed in the closer role, and will enjoy immediate success in that role. When healthy, Wood is a good starter. Healthy or not, Wood would be an elite closer. A stopper. There is a moderate-to-good chance that we'll be seeing Kerry in the bullpen in 2006, and it is almost a certainty that he'll be a closer at some point in his career.