Could Thigpen's Saves Record be in Trouble?

Bobby Thigpen picked up 57 saves during the 1990 season, a record that has stood for 15 years, and a season that stands out like a sore thumb in Thigpen's career stat line.

Thigpen was absolutely phenomenal as a 26-year old in '90 - 57 saves with a 1.83 ERA and 1.038 WHIP. Granted, he only struck out 70 men in 88 2/3 innings, but that isn't so bad, all things considered, right?

Well, eventually, all those balls in play started to turn into baserunners. In 1991, he picked up 30 saves, but his Ks declined again, to 47 in 69 2/3 innings, and his ERA increased to 3.49 while his WHIP shot up to 1.45. In 1992, he got 22 saves, with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.655 WHIP. In 1993 he got 1 save, his last. He retired after the 1995 season.

We've said it a million times, but the lifespan of the finesse closer is generally quite short.

Still, that record stands. Even though Thigpen's 1990 efforts seem like yesterday (I can still remember finding his Upper Deck 1991 "SaveMaster" card in a pack), 15 years is quite a long time - especially when those 15 years have precisely corresponded with the rise of the specialist closer. How is it that no one has caught Thigpen?

There have been challengers - in 2003, Eric Gagne notched 55 saves, in an absolutely monstrous season (55 saves, 82 1/3 innings, 137 K, 1.20 ERA, and an unfathomable 0.692 WHIP).

One year earlier, in 2002, John Smoltz also notched 55 saves. In 1998, the great Trevor Hoffman closed out 53 games. And the Greatest Closer Of All Time, Mariano Rivera, closed out 53 in 2004 as a 34-year old.

But no one has caught Thigpen.

Yet.

There are certainly challengers this season. With a little more than half the season gone, the Red Sox' phenomenal young closer Jonathon Papelbon has 26 saves, which ties him for the MLB lead with the White Sox' phenomenal young closer, Bobby Jenks, and the Cardinals somewhat older and less effective Jason Isringhausen.

There's no reason to believe that any of these pitchers will catch Thigpen - after all, tallying 57 saves requires a healthy dose of luck and an uncommon abundance of save opportunities.

But there's also a chance - a decent chance - that someone will get that luck, and will get those save opportunities. With so many pitchers on pace to finish with save totals in the low-to-mid 50's, the law of averages would seem to dictate that someone would break away from the pack and make a run at the SaveMaster. Time will tell.

Trevor Hoffman - Possible Saves Leader, but a Hall of Famer?

Trevor Hoffman picked up his 431st career save tonight, (his 38th of 2005), leaving Hoffman a mere 47 saves behind the all-time career leader, Lee Smith.

Trevor is 37 years old this season. However, he has continued to be an effective closer in his 37-year-old season, and while his peripheral stats have slipped across the board from his stellar 2004, he is still holding opposing hitters to a .234 batting average, while posting a 3.14 ERA and striking out just over a batter an inning.

It seems like a lock that Hoffman will return for at least the 2006 season, in order to make a run at Smith's career saves mark. (He'd probably be approaching the career saves record as we speak, if he hadn't missed most of the 2003 season with an injury.)

Obviously, the "closer" position is relatively new, and as such, relief specialists are dramatically underrepresented in the Hall of Fame - especially when one considers the notoriety that the earliest elite closers, such as Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter, gained in the late 1970s and early 1980s. While Gossage and Sutter will, in all likelihood, gain access to the Hall of Fame in short order, (which will be the subject of an upcoming column), it is unlikely that Hoffman will have to put up with the years of waiting that his predecessors experienced.

There are currently three pitchers who can be considered "closers" in the Hall of Fame - Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, and Dennis Eckersley. Wilhelm was the original relief specialist - a knuckleballer who pitched until he was 49, and who should be the namesake of an award recognizing baseball's top closer. Eckersley, of course, enjoyed considerable success as a starter, notching a 20-win season and 197 total wins, which helped his Hall bid. Moreover, both Eckersley and Fingers put up a massively dominant Cy Young + MVP season, which Hall voters certainly remembered.

Trevor Hoffman will end his career with no Cy Young awards, and no MVP trophies. Moreover, being the career saves leader hasn't helped Lee Smith into the Hall of Fame, and Smith's induction appears less likely by the year. However, we're confident that Hoffman will be inducted within three years of appearing on the ballot, for a number of reasons. First, and most obviously, Hoffman will have tallied his save total in far fewer seasons (probably 11 and change) than Smith (18 seasons). Equally importantly, Trevor Hoffman played the vast majority of his career with one franchise - San Diego - and became the face of that franchise, while Smith, through no fault of his own, played for 8 franchises during his career.

Mark it down - Trevor Hoffman will be elected to the Hall of Fame, along with at least one of his contemporaries, Mariano Rivera. Hall of Fame voters have long resisted the induction of relief specialists, but the tide will start to turn with the next round of balloting, in which Bruce Sutter and Goose Gossage - and maybe only Sutter and Gossage - will be elected.

Stretch Drive

It's been quite a while since we've updated - I've been compiling stats for an end-of-year feature, and Tom's got a new addition to the family to contend with. Besides, who wants to read a running tally of the previous night's blown saves?

We're prepping our first ever "Closer of the Year" feature, in order to recognize that there is more to the closer role than racking up 3-run saves. If we've learned one thing this year, it's that almost any moderately talented pitcher can enjoy some success in the closer role, but that a truly great shutdown closer is a remarkable asset, and can have a positive effect that ripples throughout an entire ballclub. Of course, the converse is also true.

In the meantime, there are a couple recent 9th-inning developments during these meaningless September games which could have a sizable effect on who gets the ball in the ninth inning next spring, and they need to be noted:

MESA OUT IN PITTSBURGH

Well, it finally happened. Jose Mesa has been ousted as the Bucs' closer. After years of trade rumors, improbable effectiveness, and general apathy during the times when Mr. Table has been ineffective ("Why make a change? No one is watching anyway..."), the Buccos finally decided to hand the ball to someone else in the 9th inning.

Now, if only they get some 9th-inning leads. They're working on that.

It looks like Salomon Torres will get the call, at least at first. Torres is probably best known for beaning Sammy Sosa and effectively ending Sosa's run as the best hitter in baseball. (Sosa returned a few weeks later with an "evil Sammy" goatee", then got busted for corking his bat, then mysteriously lost 40 pounds the next season, and then was run out of town.)

If Torres can't get it done, and there's no reason to believe that he will, they'll hand the ball to Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been Mesa's heir apparent for several years, but he's a lefty - relatively rare among closers - and Torres has been marginally more effective this season. Barring an acquisition, and this is Pittsburgh we're talking about, our money is on Gonzalez for 2006.

FARNSWORTH HAS ARRIVED IN ATLANTA

Kyle Farnsworth is the epitome of the "million dollar arm, ten cent head" pitcher. When he's on (2001 BAA-.217, 2003 BAA-.196), he is unhittable. When he's not (2002 BAA-.293, ERA 7.33!) he's throwing BP. The Cubs finally gave up on him after a mediocre-to-lousy 2004. (BAA-.260, ERA 4.74, fans punched with pitching hand = 1).

Leo Mazzone has shown, time and again, that he can mold any journeyman pitcher into a valuable asset. So it's not a big shock to see what he can do with a talent like Farnsworth.

(FANTASY TIP FOR '06 - Farnsworth with ATL, 2005: 6/6 SV, 1.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 21 K in 19 IP.)

Then again, perhaps Kyle Farnsworth is headed for a Saberhagen-esque "even-year/odd-year" Jekyll-and-Hyde career, and Mazzone will have to look elsewhere for his closer. But I doubt it.

KERRY WOOD WILL RETURN TO THE ROTATION. PROBABLY. FOR NOW.

During his month-long stint in the bullpen, Kerry Wood showed a tantalizing glimpse of the pitcher that he once was, and the closer that he may someday be. While his various injuries have limited his stamina and his effectiveness as a starter, Kerry was able to "turn the dial up to 11" as a 1-inning reliever, showing the 100-MPH heat and knee-buckling breaking stuff that he showed off as a pre-TJ surgery youngster. While facing the middle of the Cardinals' powerful lineup during an August game at Wrigley, Wood actually seemed to be grinning on the mound. For the first time in forever, he was destroying everyone he faced.

With the Cubs out of contention, management finally took the long overdue step of letting Kerry go under the knife- a shoulder "cleanup" surgery considered to be similar to what Matt Morris underwent last offseason. Kerry should be back to full strength by Spring Training, and plans to return to the rotation.

But this is Kerry Wood we're talking about here. Nagging injuries seem go with the territory. If, by some chance, Kerry's injury problems resurface during 2006, or if his stamina is not where it needs to be during Spring Training, you can rest assured that Kerry will immediately be placed in the closer role, and will enjoy immediate success in that role. When healthy, Wood is a good starter. Healthy or not, Wood would be an elite closer. A stopper. There is a moderate-to-good chance that we'll be seeing Kerry in the bullpen in 2006, and it is almost a certainty that he'll be a closer at some point in his career.

2005 First half in Review

We're still around, but we've been re-focusing the nature of this weblog - more feature stories, less re-capping of Braden Looper's last blown save.

However, some notable stories have taken place over the past couple of weeks, and should be noted:

1. Troy Percival's career may be over.
Percy was a great stopper for a long time, and was ultimately successful in his quest to tally 300 saves. He was also one of the few lucky stoppers to tally the final out of a World Series, in 2002 with Anaheim. However, his fortunes have taken a turn for the worse in the Motor City. After recently suffering a muscle tear in his throwing arm, he noted that the pain had gotten "progressively worse" after the break, and underwent an MRI on Monday. Best-case, he's out 12 months. Worst case, he's hanging up the spikes.

In the meantime, Kyle "Dr. Tightpants" Farnsworth is finally getting the opportunity to step into the closer role that Cubs fans such as myself had hoped he'd fill 3 years ago, and he's experiencing some success. And another Urlacher-style takedown of another pitcher, but who's counting, right?

2. Curt Schilling is serving as Boston's Interim Closer.
As we all know, this didn't start off too well. However, while Curt has yet to tally his first major-league save, he's pitched two consecutive scoreless ninth innings (in losing causes) since his blowup vs. the Yankees. There is some precedent for starters experiencing success in the bullpen, but all indications out of Boston are that Schilling will return to the rotation as soon as he's able.

Which would, of course, leave the BoSox' closer role empty, as Keith Foulke has been alternately mediocre and injured. Rumors are swirling around Phillies' closer Billy Wagner, who would certainly be an improvement for the 9th inning.

3. Trade Rumors
The KC Royals are not a good team. But we're just as surprised as anyone at the success that Mike MacDougal has experienced this season. He's converted his last 11 save opportunities, and has permanently secured the Royals closer role - that is, unless and until he is traded. Rumor has it that the Cubs are interested in either MacDougal or Jeremy Affeldt - and based upon Ryan Dempster's recent success in the closer role, we have to assume that they're interested in those pitchers as 8th inning options.

Danys Baez has been awfully successful of late as the D-Rays closer (well, as successful as the D-Rays' closer can be, anyway), and according to the rumor mill, is as good as gone. It's almost certain that if Baez is traded (the Nats are allegedly interested), he'll serve as a set-up man. Joe Borowski, believe it or not, would take over for Baez as the D-Rays closer. He's been perfect for the Rays so far.

Trade rumors are also surrounding Jose Mesa, but then again, trade rumors always surround Jose Mesa. Frankly, I'll believe it when I see it.

4. Surprises and Disappointments
The first half has brought us the emergence of several new stoppers - some expected (B.J. Ryan, K-Rod, Huston Street), and some unexpected (Derrick Turnbow, Dustin Hermanson, Todd Jones). Chad Cordero's emergence has been particularly exciting (32 saves, 1.09 ERA), while injuries to Armando Benitez, Octavio Dotel and Eric Gagne were particularly crushing.

Mariano Rivera has gotten off to a simply phenomenal start, putting any "over the hill" rumors to rest (24 SV, 44K, 0.91 ERA). Similarly, warhorses like Trevor Hoffman, Billy Wagner, and Eddie Guardado keep on rolling.

We'll have a full review of the first half shortly.

Dodger Disaster - Gagne May Need 2nd TJ Surgery

According to early reports, Dodgers closer Eric Gagne has sprained his throwing elbow, and may in fact have a partial tear in the ligaments of his throwing elbow, in which case he would need a second Tommy John surgery. Obviously, this would knock him out for the entire 2005 season, and at least half of the 2006 season.

Earlier this week, the Dodgers and Gagne had expressed surprise that Gagne's elbow could be injured, and reiterated their belief that Gagne had completely rehabbed the elbow injury he suffered in spring training.

Obviously, a devastating blow to the LA Dodgers, and for baseball, if Gagne cannot continue to perform at such a high level.

Ugueth U. Urbina Dealt to Philadelphia

Ugueth Urbina, who has been the acting Tigers closer while Troy Percival rehabbed from injury, was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies today, along with infielder Ramon Martinez, in exchange for infielder Placido Polanco.

Urbina has made no secret of the fact that he prefers closing, and he has been dramatically more effective in 2005 after moving into the closer role. However, in Philly, he will almost certainly return to 8th inning duties behind incumbent closer Billy Wagner.

Urbina has 236 career saves, good for 9th among all active players and 27th all time. (He only needs 3 more to pass Sparky Lyle!)

While Wagner has been the subject of some recent trade (and retirement) rumors, today's acquisition makes it clear that the Phillies currently have their sights set on winning the crowded NL East race, and that they realize that they'll need a more than just Wagner and Ryan Madson in their bullpen in order to do so.